Analysis: Which Crypto Exchange(s) Will Drive This Bull Run?

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3 years ago

This is a simple analysis but I think it allows us to make a few deductions:

 

1) Crypto interest is increasing.

We can see in 2018-2019 declining and generally low volume, meaning low interest, coinciding with the dark bear market. We observe a noticeable increase in volume at the beginning of 2020 with a steady incline to date, coinciding with higher prices across the board for crypto assets. Therefore, we can deduct that higher volume on exchanges = higher interest in crypto as a whole. As we see exchange volumes increase, I think it's a safe assumption that we'll see crypto prices increase in concert as well. 

 

2) Investors are flocking to select exchanges. 

Exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase Pro, Kraken, and Bitstamp have seen substantial increases in volume this year. Binance and Kraken have already set new highs for daily volumes over the past couple of weeks, surpassing that of late 2017/early 2018 during the last crypto bull run in which there was a brief retail-driven mania. Coinbase Pro and Bitstamp are not far behind, both showing multi-year highs in daily volume and posting numbers not far below their ATHs in 2017/early 2018. This signals a consolidation of the space, as there can be multiple winners, but not likely to be many true winners. Exchanges like Poloniex, Bittrex, and even Gemini have seen dismal gains, exhibiting marginal increases in volume. While this may be enough to keep the lights on and remain profitable, the majority of volume will probably funnel into a few of the most prominent exchanges. This comes as institutional investors appear to be driving this crypto bull run, maturing the space, and expectedly executing block trades outside of exchanges in favor of CME-backed futures contracts, Over The Counter (OTC) sources, and even the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, an ETF-like investment product commonly available in traditional investment brokerages. 

 

3) Binance is winning. 

No other exchange is even close to the amount of volume Binance has cornered in the digital asset market. With over $30 billion in daily volume as of late 2020 amid the crypto surge in Q3 - Q4 2020, Binance has captured 10x that of the next closest Coinbase, and 30x that of Bronze medalists Bitstamp and Kraken. There are a few reasons why Binance is blowing other exchanges out of the water, probably relating to their willingness to promptly list nearly any and every token upon public release, providing liquidity for smaller and more obscure projects with little other options, creating a one-stop-shop for microcap tokens. Additionally, and more importantly, Binance is widely available is most jurisdictions around the world, with obvious limited exceptions (US, UK, etc.). 

 

Poloniex. 

Bitstamp.  

Gemini.

Kraken.

Binance. 

Coinbase Pro. 

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3 years ago

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