While Putin continues to invade Ukraine, he may declare war on Japan due to Kuril islands

While the world's attention has been focused on Russia's war in Ukraine, another long-standing territorial dispute has been escalating in the Kuril Islands, also known as the northern territories in Japan. This land dispute specifically between Japan and Russia is over the ownership of the four southernmost corel islands, which are currently owned by Russia. So in today's article I'm going to explain what this land dispute is all about, Why it's so important and whether any military conflict is likely in the near future is unclear.

Let's start with a bit of geography. The Kuril Islands are a chain of islands which stretch between the Japanese island of Hokkaido at their southernmost end and the Russian Kamchatka peninsula at their northern end. Although the entire island chain has a total population of only around twenty thousand people, the southern carols are of significant strategic importance to Russia. Russia's control of the islands ensures that Russia has year-round access to the Pacific Ocean for its Pacific fleet of warships and submarines. If Russia were to relinquish control of the islands, they could potentially be used by an adversary to block their access to the Pacific Ocean, which is seen as unacceptable by Russian geostrategists.

The islands are also surrounded by rich fishing grounds and are thought to have offshore reserves of both oil and gas, and rare rhenium deposits have also been found on one of the islands. It's also worth pointing out that, in the eyes of the Kremlin, a potential return of the Kuril Islands to Japan would be interpreted as a clear sign of Russian weakness, which means that Russia could also face strong pressure from the west to return Crimea to Ukraine as well as other territory across its country. Thus, the Karelian islands remain under Russian control, so why do so many in Japan believe that the islands belong to them?

Well, let's move from geography to learning a bit about history. Under the terms of the treaty of Shimoda, signed in 1855, Japan and Russia agreed to share Sackland island, with Russia taking the north and Japan taking the south. At the same time, they also divided control of the Karil islands, while Russia took the islands running north from Europe. Japan gained sovereignty over the three main southern islands, as well as some islets. However, two decades later, in 1875, they signed a new agreement, the Treaty of Saint Petersburg. In return for taking control of all of Sakland, Russia ceded the entire Kuril island chain to Japan. This seemed like a good trade, but over the following decades, tensions rose between Japan and Russia, culminating in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904, which led to a colossal defeat for the Russians.

With the treaty of Portsmouth in 1905, Moscow was forced to cede control over much of their territory in the far east, including notably returning the southern half of the sackland islands to Japan. However, things changed drastically during the Second World War. Firstly, the Yauto Conference of 1945 contributed heavily to Russia's continued sovereignty over the islands. It was then that Stalin agreed that Soviet forces would join the allies in the war against Japan, and in return, the Soviet Union would gain control of Russian territory that they'd lost in the Russo-Japanese war in 1904-1905, including the Kuril Islands. Later that year, the United States detonated two nuclear weapons over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, while the Soviet Union officially declared war on Japan, pouring more than one million Soviet soldiers into Japanese-occupied northeastern China to take on the Japanese army's 700,000 strong armies. A consequence, Japan surrendered to the allies, and by the end of 1945, the entire island chain was in Russian hands.

A decade later, in 1956, relations had improved between the two countries and ultimately culminated in the signing of a peace declaration. However, continued disagreement over the Karil islands prevented both sides from actually formally signing the peace treaty, meaning that Russia and Japan have never actually formally agreed to peace, which is just remarkable. Anyway, let's fast-forward to the modern day and on the 28th of February 2002, just days before Russia launched their invasion of Ukraine, the European director at the Japanese foreign ministry told Japanese parliamentarians that Russia was in occupation of the northern territories. In response, the Russian government issued a statement noting that the islands had been legally transferred as part of the punishment for Japan's aggression and its alliance with Nazi Germany. However, in the days that followed, both the prime minister and the foreign minister of Japan called the islands an integral part of Japan.

However, things have only gotten worse since then, with Putin signing an amendment into Russian law exempting businesses operating on the islands from paying corporate property and land taxes for up to 20 years, a decision that Tokyo has condemned. 's decision to join wider western sanctions on Russia and, in turn, this has prompted speculation that we could see retaliation from Russia, such as Russia banning Japanese fishing vessels from the waters around the islands. At the same time, Tokyo has increased its monitoring of Russian military activity in the region in order to keep tabs on what's going on. Tokyo, a powerful ally, has taken Tokyo's side, stating that the United States has supported Japan's claim over the island since the 1950s. And this support might just be more than rhetoric too, because in February of this year, during Russian military exercises, Russia claimed that it detected a US submarine in its territorial waters near the Karil islands, suggesting the US is taking a more active role in the situation. But it has only added to the hostile environment between Russia and Japan.

As Putin believes that returning the islands to Japan could result in a US military presence on the islands, as evidenced by Japan's mutual defense agreement with the US. know what you're all thinking. Will this end up leading to an actual military conflict over these tiny islands? Well, despite Japan's having the military power to do so and with Russia preoccupied in Europe, it seems highly unlikely that Japan would try and reclaim the islands. Japan will also remain a nuclear power and similar to how NATO won't step into Ukrainian soil out of fear of a major escalation with Moscow, so too will Japan by avoiding any moves which could lead to a direct attack.