Putin has captured Mariupol, so what does it mean?

It has been more than 2 months since the Russia Ukraine war started. For these two months, Russia could not make any serious gains. Yesterday they announced their biggest win to date. Russia captured the city of Mariupol. Only 2,000 soldiers and 500 civilians remained locked inside the factory. It is not known how their fate will turn out. Normally, when you look at Mariupol, it does not take up a very large place on the map. So why did they achieve their biggest win to date? So why has Russia been operating so hard for 2 months to get it here? What did Ukraine lose with the loss of this place? We have a lot of topics to talk about today.

Russia has been performing well below expectations ever since it started the Ukraine War. Under normal circumstances, it was expected to gain an overwhelming advantage. And it was thought that he would do it in a very short time. But it didn't work as expected. Russia both suffered a lot of losses and could not advance properly. When you look at it, of course, there can be many reasons. There is a possibility that he was deliberately moving slowly because of the sanctions. The West is already fully supporting Ukraine. Putin may be trying to carry out this operation as much as possible without further provoking the West. Or maybe his main goal from the beginning was not to take control of all of Ukraine.

Of course, there is the possibility of such factors. However, one thing we see is that the Russian army has completely disintegrated here. It was clear how unprepared they entered the war. In other words, if you cannot calculate to send the fuel that they will use to the place where you send your hundreds of tanks, and therefore you have lost a lot of tanks, this indicates the failure of your army. As a result of this failure, Russia could not make any progress in Ukraine from the beginning. But yesterday, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced their greatest achievement since the beginning of the war. They announced that they had captured the port city of Mariupol, which they had besieged since the beginning of March.

Here they still could not control only the Azovstal iron and steel plant. The last warriors left in the city retreated here. When I say factory, it is not a small place. You know, they're stuck in an over-the-top building. Do not say that the one who cleans the big city will also clean this place in one day. Because this is one of the biggest metal factories in Europe. It is spread over an area of ​​more than 10 square kilometers. This factory has a huge potential consisting of tunnels and underground chambers. In other words, when Russia makes an operation against this factory, it has to risk losing hundreds, maybe thousands of soldiers. Because it is stated that about 2000 Ukrainian soldiers are staying here. 2000 soldiers, more than 10 square kilometers, and hundreds of rooms and tunnels under this area.

current situation in mariupol, wikipedia

Of course, the Russian army, which has had difficulties in being present even in the normal field, cannot operate in such a place. That's why Putin ordered no operation here. Rather than attacking, they decided to surround him and wait. As a result, there are 2500 people inside, including about 500 civilians. They will have to go out somehow, even for food needs. Putin is not the boy of yesterday. He knows how many losses the Russian army will lose in these tunnels. Which has already captured its main target, Mariupol. It doesn't make much sense for him to deliberately lose more and further damage his image in the domestic public after that. Somehow, the west and Ukraine will offer to open a corridor to save the soldiers there. Russia will also accept it. And he will take the factory without a fight. They are aware of this.

Maybe until I publish this article, the developments I mentioned will even occur. Well, there was another piece of news yesterday. It also intrigued me. It's reported that the barricades in Kyiv are being dismantled and life is returning to normal. When you read that both Mariupol lost and life started to normalize in Kyiv on the same day, of course, the first thing that comes to mind is the possibility that Zelensky gave up on Mariupol. Maybe they overlooked it. And they will want to end the war with such a concession. Of course, this is not information. This is what came to mind when I saw two news stories on the same day. So why is Russia busier here than anywhere else? In other words, what will Russia gain by destroying Mariupol?

Mariupol is a very critical city. Of course, buying this place will have certain benefits for Russia. First of all, this city takes up a small place on the map. But this creates an obstacle for the Russian forces operating from Crimea. If these forces want to help the pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region, Mariupol is the obstacle. Likewise, this is the obstacle in the transition from Russia to Crimea. In other words, by taking this place, Russia created a land connection to Crimea. And another achievement that he achieved along the way is the coastline. With this acquisition, Russia fully controlled 80 percent of Ukraine's Black Sea coastline. And with that Ukraine has lost its largest port. Maritime trade was blocked and further isolated from the world.

In other words, Ukraine's economy is taking a very serious blow with this loss. This City also owns Ukraine's most important iron and steel plant. You know, we just mentioned it as the factory where the Ukrainian fighters were stuck. That factory is very important for the Ukrainian economy. And not only that. The city of Mariupol was a very important export center for Steel, coal, and maize that normally goes to Ukraine's customers in the Middle East and Africa. In addition to these, Russia gains a serious propaganda opportunity by taking this place. Because here is the Azov battalion of Ukraine. This battalion normally makes up only a fraction of the forces fighting in Ukraine. But Russia used them as very good propaganda material. He was successful at this.

Because Putin was able to tell his people that they were there to save their neighbors from the Neonazis. If he can capture some of the Azov battalion fighters who were stuck in the factory after capturing the city, he will seriously use them for propaganda. With the capture of this place, maritime transport between Russia, Donbas, and Crimea gained great advantages. Transportation time has been shortened and logistics volume has increased significantly. Now the Sea of Azov has become the Russian Sea. Think about it, in 2014 they took Crimea. Now they have captured the city of Mariupol. And now they have a sea that normally didn't belong to them, from which they only owned half the coastline. In other words, when you look at it, Russia has achieved a very strategic gain here.

This win tells both sides different things in terms of morale. It will be a serious moral loss for the Ukrainian side. The Russian side will also gain serious morale as it has achieved significant and tangible success for the first time since the beginning of the war. Some of the public, which has been secretly hostile to Putin until yesterday, may even begin to see Putin as right. For the Ukrainian side, the resistance against Russia may weaken a little more. Because the city of Mariupol showed a very serious resistance. But it came at a heavy price. Russia destroyed the city.

Aleppo/Syria after russian bombardment

Previously, the same fate befell Dzhevher Kale in Chechnya and Aleppo in Syria. By doing the same in this city, Russia gave a very clear message to the remaining cities of Ukraine. If you resist like Mariupol, you will suffer the same fate. It is not known whether Russia will try to advance further, but if the occupation movement continues, we can see that the resistance has weakened a little more in other cities. In other words, Putin was able to achieve one of his goals in the region. But did reaching this goal make Russia successful?

We've already talked before the war. Russia lost too many tanks, armored vehicles, and even warplanes. In addition, he also suffered a serious loss of soldiers. If we look at the Ukrainian side, close to 20,000 soldiers of Russia died. If we look at the Russian side's reports, they have stated that about 1,500 Russians died. But, of course, it's not just the numbers. Professional military means a country's years of investment in education. That is, if a war started today, mobilization would be announced, and we would all go to war. In that war, my death and the death of a professional soldier of 5 years and 10 years are not the same for the state.

My death is just a number. But the death of a veteran soldier means lost years for the army. That's why we shouldn't look at just the number of Russia's losses here. Even if we look at the statements made by the Russian side, not the Ukrainian side, there is great destruction. 20 percent of the dead Russian soldiers cover the ranks ranging from lieutenant to full general. Of course, this is another disappointment for Russia.

In a word, Russia has achieved its biggest win since the beginning of the war. A big win? Yes, it's a huge win. If Ukraine does not get it back, it will experience very negative effects both economically and psychologically. Can you get it back? I don't know, time will show what is gonna happen in Ukraine.