Explained: Putin's invasion of Ukraine could lead to a nuclear war #1
First of all, I decided to divide this article into two parts and share it. Because when I look at my past posts, the reading rate of my articles over 1000 words decreases due to the length of the article. This is not something I would like, as you can imagine. For this reason, I will divide this article into two parts, and I will share the second part tomorrow. If you want, let's move on to the article..
The world is on the brink of a major crisis. Russia has declared that it can use nuclear weapons in case of threat. According to Princeton University's simulation, 90 million people could die in a few hours if nuclear war broke out. The risk of nuclear war is closer than ever. Let me explain.
In an environment where the war continues only in Ukraine and the USA and Russia do not attack each other, the possibility of nuclear war may not sound very convincing. But the situation is not as it seems. Putin's nuclear attack began to be talked about more and more in international circles. The possibility of a nuclear attack first began at the beginning of the war, when Putin put the nuclear forces on alert. This step was received in the West as a symbolic bluff to escalate tensions. But today it has become a very serious risk.
current situation in Ukraine, liveuamap
Carniege Foundation for International Peace nuclear expert Dr. "It feels terrible to talk about it, but we have to consider it as a possibility," said Ulrich Köhn of the current situation. In order to see the risk, it is necessary to understand the process. Therefore, it is necessary to go back to the beginning.
Russia designed the war as a lightning strike, lasting a maximum of two weeks. Kyiv would fall, Zelensky would be overthrown, and Ukraine would be captured. But the lightning attack ended in a fiasco. When Western sanctions hit the Russian economy, Putin realized that he didn't have much time and changed tactics to take the cities down as soon as possible.
More brutal attacks, more destruction and civilian deaths...
But Ukraine has and still continues to resist devastating Russian attacks, thanks to US-supplied weapons and military prowess. Meanwhile, a peace table was established in Turkey. Zelensky has signaled that he can sacrifice Donbas and Crimea. The talks were going well. During the negotiations, Biden interestingly declared Putin a war criminal. The Russian side, on the other hand, accused Ukraine of being malicious. So the table fell apart. There was no chance of peace coming from the table. Because both sides have cards to play.
peace talks in turkey, dailysabah
After the table broke up, the equations of war were largely centered on China. Russia has lost 10% of the fighting army and is economically cornered. At this point, Putin's primary way out is for China to break the sanctions and extend a helping hand. Biden, on the other hand, publicly threatened China not to circumvent sanctions during his meeting with Xi.
At this point, the step that China will take is very important. If it lends a helping hand, the US could expand sanctions to include China. Since the very beginning, the USA has implemented many sanctions that can be applied. The only thing left is the EU's energy sanctions against Russia. However, since these sanctions will harm the EU as well as Russia, it is not dared for now.
Naturally, when China extends a helping hand to Russia, the US will be cornered and left with two options: energy sanctions on Russia or economic sanctions on China. Maybe even both. China, on the other hand, is not at all ready for such an economic war. Essentially, China hoped that Russia could win the war with a lightning strike. As the war dragged on, the situation began to unsettle China, and "diplomacy" outflows from Beijing began to rise.
Currently, China does not see this fight as its own and does not want to engage in an economic war with the United States for "incompetent" Russia. But they do not intend to turn their backs on Russia either. China has been playing with time, so to speak, for about ten days. But time is running out.
If China does not lend a helping hand to Russia, Putin will be cornered for good. If China lends a helping hand, Biden will likely do his best to impose energy sanctions on the EU and Putin will be trapped again.
We can say that the process is waiting for China's attitude. As a result of these moves, Putin will most likely be helpless both economically and militarily. At this point, he may have to resort to a quick, unsettling and military advantage: NUCLEAR ATTACK.
