Explained: How Russia Failed in the Ukraine War

note: this post is a re-shared version of the post I shared on my hive blog. I wanted to share it again because I thought it was a quality article.

At the very beginning of the process, Russia predicted that the diplomacy table would be locked and it would land on the field. Therefore, he based his entire strategy on recognizing Donbas and then overthrowing Zelensky and bringing in a pro-Russian government. The process went exactly as expected. Russia launched air strikes and cyber-attacks of the kind that would disable the Ukrainian army and loaded into key cities.

According to calculations, within 5-7 days key cities would fall and the government would be overthrown. The interesting thing is that the USA also saw a benefit in this happening. Because there was a serious incompatibility between the USA and the EU, and a serious danger had to arise in the east in order to eliminate this incompatibility: Russian occupation!

Let's rewind the movie a bit. Many think that Russia launched the attack at an unfavorable time. However, the facts are not like that. Russia preferred a good timing for the attack.

To understand this, it is necessary to look at the last 5-6 years of the Western world. Let's see. The international position of the United States was greatly shaken when Trump was elected. Trump withdrew from some international agreements first. Afterwards, he started to follow a moderate policy with Russia. He had problems with France and Germany.

In other words, the US-EU relations and the NATO order began to deteriorate. On the other hand, the pandemic started in 2020. The global economic balance has deteriorated. High inflation started in Europe and the USA. Energy prices rose. Most importantly, the EU's "quest for autonomy" increased.

If we look at the event from the Russian side, the situation becomes clearer. The West made a move for Ukraine in 2014 and lost. But the danger was not past. Russia was supposed to resolve the Ukraine crisis and take over the country.

The West, on the other hand, was quite unprepared. The USA's relations with the EU had deteriorated and there were major cracks in NATO. As of 2020, the global economic problem had emerged. And the rise in energy prices was important to Russia's revenues. In Ukraine, a former comedian took the lead, and it seemed difficult for him to successfully run the country in times of crisis. In summary:

A messy West, negative economic developments and a shaky Ukraine... The conditions were ready for Russia. For Russia, a disorganized West grappling with economic problems could not prevent a sudden attack on a shaky Ukraine led by a former comedian.

It would be a great mistake for Russia not to seize the opportunity when the conditions were so favorable. So the timing was pretty good for Russia. But it was the US foreign policy's reflex to the crisis that spoiled the calculations.

The United States has made three crucial moves to turn Russia's aggression into a kind of opportunity. First, he announced that he would not send troops to Ukraine. By the way, it's good to say. The USA's declaration that it will not send troops to Ukraine is not a choice but a reality. Because it risks starting the 3rd World War.

However, the USA's declaration that it would not send troops every time encouraged Russia. The second critical step taken by the USA is the military support given to the Ukrainian army. Some anti-Americanists claim that the US sold Ukraine and left it in the middle. But this is not true. Yes, the USA is famous for throw away. But this time they didn't.

In 2014, the United States gave serious support to the weak Ukrainian army, which was in pieces. The army gathered its strength in this process. In addition, the United States provided significant arms support. I will explain the scope and purpose of this weapon support a little later.

And the most critical step taken by the USA is that it manages the information war based on "passive deterrence" very well. The USA wanted the danger to approach and shouted the approaching danger almost every day. Thus, it instilled an intense threat perception in the EU. No matter what the USA did anyway, it could not prevent the invasion of Russia. Putin has openly declared that there is no state called Ukraine. What the US could do was take advantage of the impending danger and mend the cracks in the Western world. They did exactly that, and they did it very successfully.

At the beginning of the process, there was a Germany that did not want to take a position against France and Russia, which acted autonomously. From the Swift sanction to arms support, many European countries were undecided. The USA managed to end all these indecisions. He united the West and followed it.

Germany broke the long-standing Russian policy. The EU has adapted well to the policies of the USA. So much so that even Switzerland changed its historical neutrality stance. The western world came together under the command of the USA. This is what the USA gains from the Russian occupation.

By the time the Russians pulled the trigger, Washington had already taken the opportune position. The Western world, which was consolidated, began serial sanctions and weapons aid. This reflex had only one purpose: to stop the sudden Russian attack "for now". At this point, the US aid to Ukraine for a while comes into play.

There are two aspects to the military aid provided by the USA in this process. The first was to provide the necessary weapons to resist Russian attacks. But the second is more important!

When the Russians launched an invasion that could bring down Zelensky in 5-7 days, as I mentioned above, American weapons stepped in. The Ukrainian army could not fight the Russians in open ground. But some form of runaway fighting that would impede the Russian advance could thwart Russian plans.

U.S.-supplied weapons were able to catch Russian tanks, planes and armored vehicles by surprise. Thus, by the 5th day, the Russian army had made little progress than anticipated and had suffered too many casualties. At this point, it is necessary to open parenthesis to Zelenski.

Zelenski, a former comedian with no experience in politics or warfare, gained tremendous charisma by not leaving the capital in the process. Morale is very important in battles, and Zelensky's apparent heroism surprisingly rallied the Ukrainian army.

After all, Russia failed to achieve its goals. Although the 7th day came, critical cities could not be captured and the Russian army could not reach the port of Odessa. The Russians were in such a bad shape that Putin even had to attempt a "coup call".

Apart from the resistance of the Ukrainian army and the heroism of Zelensky, one of the main factors in Russia's failure was the inability of the Russian army to establish superiority in the air. This was quite an unexpected development. There are some reasons for this too. The Pentagon is not entirely sure, but attributes the Russians' inability to gain air dominance to several reasons:

Russia did not give weight to air attacks. Among the reasons for this are the inexperience of the pilots, fuel savings and not risking the planes.

The Russians may have had too much reliance on the successful invasion. But the lack of air dominance brought a surprise actor to the stage: UAVs!

Turkish UAVs found a very favorable environment in an environment where air dominance could not be achieved. So at the end of the 7th day, Russia's plan to overthrow Zelensky by capturing critical cities with a "sudden invasion" failed.

But this does not mean that the Russians are defeated. Next is Plan B: While Putin desired a change of government in Ukraine, he avoided taking steps that would cause public reaction in order to achieve this easily.

If the attack was bloody, it would draw the reaction of the society. Therefore, the dose of occupation was kept low during Plan A. But it failed. At this point, Putin could not back down. However, he didn't have many options. That's why plan B was put into action. Here, chronologically, we are in exactly this time period.

Russia realized that it could not easily pass through the Ukrainian defense. Now he has to put aside his sensitivity of not attracting the reaction of the society. That is, the attacks will become stronger. More and harder attacks will begin. If Plan B succeeds, the Ukrainian defense will collapse and critical cities will fall under Russian domination.

Military circles see a high probability of Russia achieving this. The United States may have already accepted this reality. He's even prepared. The goal of the Russians is to seize critical cities with a bloody attack, completely collapse the Ukrainian defense and overthrow the government. Thus, a pro-Russian government will come to power.

If the Ukrainian society reacts to the bloody attacks, the new pro-Russian government invites Russian military force. Just like in Belarus and Kazakhstan... Due to the collapse of Ukraine's defense, the probability of society's resistance is very, very low. It's like impossible.

Russia made two critical maneuvers at this point. He demanded a temporary ceasefire for the evacuation of civilians and made diplomatic statements to stall the process. But all these maneuvers consist of preparing the ground for a bloody attack, as in Syria in the past. Russia is throwing all its moves for the success of Plan B. On the other hand, the USA predicted all of them. And he focused all his preparation on the possibility of the occupation of cities as a result of a "bloody attack".

I said above that the US took two important steps in providing military support. The first was the aid of weapons. The second was much more important. The US has been taking steps in Ukraine for some time to train paramilitary forces that will fight for city wars. Critical cities will most likely fall once the Russians launch a bloody attack in accordance with Plan B. The US predicts this.

At that point, all preparations were made so that the Ukrainian defense would not fall apart: Street Wars! In order to legalize the status of warriors who will participate in city wars, Zelenski recently invited volunteers to the country.

The infrastructure for this cannot be provided in two days. It was obvious that this would happen. They were prepared. The invitation was a simple procedure.

Fighters from many parts of the world will probably pour into Ukraine, apart from the Ukrainian paramilitary forces trained by the US. Thus, a bloody struggle will begin.

Maybe Zelenski insisted on a demand from the USA in order not to fall into this situation: a no-fly zone. If the no-fly zone was provided, the Ukrainian army would have an advantageous position. But the USA did not accept this offer. Nor are they unfair. Acceptance of this demand may risk war between the US-NATO and Russia, something the US - rightly - does not want.

As a result, it would not be surprising to see a serious Russian attack in the coming days. And the fall of the cities... At this point, if the Ukrainian defense can stay strong, street wars will begin. Street by street, house by house, even room by room war... Bloody and long...

Thus, in my opinion, the USA will provide the environment it has aimed for from the very beginning. The occupation of Ukraine and the massacre of civilians in street wars will make the Western world completely anti-Russian. At this point, the United States will gain a favorable commander status.

The Russian economy will be severely damaged by the strong sanctions imposed by the Western world, and the Russian army will be completely bogged down in Ukraine. The USA largely rules the Western world, but it is not in the position it would like for now. They've made great strides in sanctions. But the EU is not ready for the deadliest sanction. Because the EU gets a significant part of its energy from Russia.

Energy sanctions have not been dealt with so far. Because this could cause severe economic damage for the EU. But today, discussions have started about imposing energy sanctions on Russia. Even the most unlikely sanctions are discussed. The USA achieves this with the position it provides. If street wars and civilian deaths begin, energy sanctions may be imposed on Russia.

Another US reservation was China's ability to soften sanctions by not participating in the sanctions. In this case, the USA would have to impose sanctions on China, which was not easy to convince the EU. But the position that street wars and civilian deaths will provide to the US may even force the EU to impose sanctions on China.

On the other hand, it is possible to see a serious political drift in China. Because there are things that bother them too. China offered political support to Russia at the very beginning of the process. They were probably convinced that Russia would succeed in Plan A and that the Ukraine crisis would be concluded in 7 days. But the prolongation of the process may change China's policy.

Chinese circles have been experiencing slight rhetorical shifts for a while. A wave of diplomatic calls began in Beijing, inviting the parties to negotiate. China may disapprove of street wars and leave Putin alone if Russia's plan B fails.

From the very beginning, China did not take kindly to crises that would create a kind of global polarization. If the Ukraine crisis turns into street wars, the USA will have the power to create this polarization. This will be a kind of early reckoning for China, which is hard to come by. In summary, the start of street wars will bring China to a critical crossroads. And not only China... Turkey and India, who have maintained their neutrality since the beginning of the process, will also come to such a crossroads.

India has tense relations with China, and Pakistan's improving relations with China in its west increase the extent of the uneasiness. Russia's relations with India have been considered good since the cold war. Russia made significant military aid to India in this process. Delhi gave importance to Russian relations so as not to be completely surrounded geographically. Therefore, India remained neutral in the Ukraine crisis. But the USA will force Delhi to choose sides after a while. And Delhi is in need of US support against China.

Finally, what if street wars start? It is almost certain that many civilians will die and cities will be in ruins. As a result, there are three important scenarios.

According to the yellow scenario, Russia wins the street battles and achieves the Pyrrhic Victory. He takes over the country, but it is doubtful whether he will be able to control it. There is a massive global backlash against Moscow. The sanctions will likely continue.

According to the yellow scenario, Russia wins the street battles and achieves the Pyrrhic Victory. He takes over the country, but it is doubtful whether he will be able to control it. There is a massive global backlash against Moscow. The sanctions will likely continue.

According to the orange scenario, Russia partially wins the street wars. Zelensky's government is stationed in the west of the country. Thus, Ukraine is actually divided into three. The independent Donbas in the east, the pro-Russian government of Kyiv in the middle, and the pro-US government of Lviv in the west...

Domestic and foreign fighters to the red scenario win the street battles. Zelensky becomes the owner of the Pyrrhic Victory and Russia is surrounded by a great defeat. In this case, the Caucasus and Central Asia will become active.

Ukraine will now join the ranks of the West. It should not be forgotten that the USA knew from the very beginning that the process would come to this point. Preparations were made for today. It's only a matter of time before a bloody massacre begins. Let's hope it's a surprise and the war is over