The Bitcoin Halving Event is coming April 2024. However, a black swan economic crash is also coming.

The #Bitcoin #Halving Event is coming April 2024.

However, a black swan economic crash is also coming.

How will these two events interplay?

Listen.

➡️ Bitcoin won’t make it past the halving before the broader economic crash begins. ⬅️

And, for the sake of argument, even if you think the economic crash could somehow be staved off beyond the bitcoin halving event, here is the truth: The Bitcoin Halving doesn’t mark the start of a new bull run.

Historically, there is a 1 - 1.6 year delay until the bitcoin bull reaches its peak. (This could be getting longer each cycle, but we'll be conservative and assume it will follow the same pattern).

So you have to add another 1 - 1.6 years on top of the halving date of April 2024. This comes to Apr - Nov 2025.

It then becomes clear that Bitcoin simply won’t make it to the next bitcoin bull run unscathed by the economic effects of the Fed interest rates being so high.

Corollary datum (like it or not):
Crypto is correlated to stocks. Crypto is not (yet) impervious nor decoupled from stock market shocks. The 2020 pandemic proved this, as just one of the bigger examples. If BTC can't withstand the pandemic crash, how would it withstand a larger stock market crash?

This all being said, a large economic crash can take a long time to fully play out. It could take 1.5 - 2 years for the economy to finish bottoming. That is a long time to experience rallies, but still on the way down.

Optimistic Hope:
Now, maybe— just maybe— at some point during this major recession, some level of bitcoin decoupling occurs, as people flee to safer assets. I am hopeful this is the case and I think it's an inevitable outcome, eventually. But I don't think Bitcoin escapes the initial shocks of a broad market downturn, especially during the acute moments of any steeper stock market crashes.

Either way, it’s going to be a wild ride.

The Very Long Term View:
In the end (with the time frame of a decade+), I have no doubt that BTC will emerge victorious above the repugnant, debased and devalued dollar, which has been printed and then printed some more, into abused oblivion, which is the fate of every fiat currency that ever existed.

May you weather the coming years with both luck and skill!

And, if you doubt that a large economic downturn is happening in the near future, watch this video clip where I detail why I strongly believe this is coming: https://twitter.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1685280603900366848/video/1