Round 11 of the NRL season kicks off on Thursday with a very important clash that sees the North Queensland Cowboys hosting the Newcastle Knights. The winner of this game has a chance to move into the top 8 while the loser will take a huge blow to their hopes of making the finals.
Both sides enter this match with identical records of 4 wins and 6 losses, though the Cowboys are the side on a better run of form with three wins from the last five, while the Knights have lost three of the last four. This better form combined with home field advantage sees the Cowboys as a six point favorite, which in my opinion, is too many points in this match up.
When you look at the victories this season for the Cowboys, three of the four have come against sides at the bottom of the table including the worst two teams in the NRL, in the Brisbane Broncos and Canterbury Bulldogs. The only side in the top 8 that they have defeated are the Canberra Raiders and they are a team that is falling apart in recent weeks with losses in five of the last six. In addition, they have only won once by a margin of more than six points
On the other hand, the Knights have come up against some of the top sides in the NRL in recent weeks with losses to the Sydney Roosters and Penrith Panthers. I do not see the Cowboys in the same league as those two teams and I believe the Knights have some significant advantages in this match up. The Knights will be missing star fullback Kayln Ponga on Thursday, and while his absence will certainly hurt this squad, it is in the forward pack where I see a big advantage for the Knights. Newcastle have a very strong group up front with the likes of Tyson Frizell, Jaydon Brailey, David Klemmer, and Daniel Saifiti set to start in this match. The Cowboys can not match this team up front, and with the exception of Jason Taumalolo, this is a not a forward pack that is very impressive.
The Cowboys are also a team that can struggle defensively and their average of 28.5 points allowed per match is third worst in the NRL, with only the bottom two Broncos and Bulldogs giving up more. Overall, I believe that the Cowboys are way too big of a favorite in this match and I feel strongly that the Knights can at least keep this score close and have a decent chance to pull the road upset.
My bet: Newcastle Knights +6 @ 1.94 at Pinnacle
Predicted score: Knights to win 24-20