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The Most Popular Token? The Inverse Rule. What Happens When Bitcoin Moons ? And Other Stuff
The amount of Bitcoin you receive from a Bitcoin Faucet is based on a predetermined dollar value. As the market value of Bitcoin increases the amount of Bitcoin the Faucet pays out decreases. Until the point is reached where the Bitcoin Faucet is only rewarding 1 satoshi.
But when the market value of Bitcoin keeps going up and up 🚀🚀🚀 And the cost of that single satoshi reward is also going up and up.
There must reach a point where it is no longer economically viable to run a Bitcoin Faucet. At what market value of Bitcoin does this occur?
This dilemma is something I have been pondering on and off this year.
It was late 2019, Free Cryptos were having a few technical issues with people making multiple accounts and gaming their sites. As an interim measure they halved the rewards from $0.0003 to $0.00015 for lucky numbers 0000-9885. As they were slowly going broke.
Despite fixing their technical issues early in 2020, they were reluctant to restore the reward to the previous level of $0.0003. It was only a few months ago that the reward was finally $0.0003 again.
This may have been more to with the rising value of Bitcoin, than any goodwill to Free Cryptos user base.
That aside, the reward for the lucky numbers 0000-9885 has been increased 200% so far this year.
How long can they continue to do that each time Bitcoin 🚀🚀🚀 ?
Something I have noticed is people are more inclined to start using a particular Free Cryptos site at the height of the hype/price cycle. But this fades as the hype fades. This shows up in the number of new referrals.
It always reminds me of the famous Warren Buffet quote:
To put this into Bitcoin Faucet terms.
The time to be playing the Free Cryptos Bitcoin Faucet hard, is when we are at the bottom of a hype/price cycle. As the reward in satoshi is much higher per roll.
A couple of months ago when I began adding the Free Cryptos referral links at the bottom of my post. Chainlink was all the rage and this was reflected in the number of people using the FreeChainlink referral link as opposed to the FreeBitcoin referral link . Now things are reversed. With Bitcoin 🚀🚀🚀 FreeBitcoin referral numbers increasing and FreeChainlink referral numbers stagnating.
Hence the Inverse Rule. People tend to do things back to front, but that is human nature.
If it wasn't for the Inverse Rule we wouldn't have FOMO and FUD. And the transfer of wealth that enables.
With the big jump in new referrals for Bitcoin. And as I like playing around with numbers and wondered if I could work out which coin/token is the most popular or any other noticeable trends.
A bit like using Google Trends to gauge the interest in Bitcoin.
The 4 metrics (in bold) I ended up using to gauge the popularity were:
number of rolls over 2 day period
current number of referrals
number of rolls per referral
net gain of referrals over 2 week period
The number of rolls were calculated by dividing the Recent Referral Commissions Earned by the last amount received with my last roll. It is assumed that no-one was lucky enough to roll over the 9885. This would have shown up as a large spike in the Recent Referral Commissions Earned figure.
I tried only using 3 metrics, leaving out the number of rolls over 2 day period. As that could have given too much weight to those with a higher number of referrals.
Now if I was CZ I could have easily come up with some metrics to make Binance Coin the overall winner. But I am not that sort of a guy.
Also Litecoin is only just been added recently to the Free Cryptos stable of faucet sites, so Litecoin was at a slight disadvantage. Litecoin may never win a beauty contest but seems to holding it's own.
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