The Crypto Weather Forecast - BTC hits 35K before dropping below 25K

Oops there it is, one week later than expected...or better than I forecasted but it arrived, the June relief rally is here. Unfortunately, it´s very likely that it´s not here to stay.

So let's recap what happened. In short, what goes down, will go up.

We had 9 weeks of down so it was time to see some green because even a bear market has its moments.

Now quickly why are we up?

Well, some positive news on lesser lockdowns from China, and the dollar finally going down pushed the stock markets up a little last week. Now it took a bit longer for crypto to follow as this is a "don´t touch risk assets" period and some people still consider it the riskiest asset.

You will keep noticing the following compared to stocks:

Crypto will always be the first one to dip and the last one to pump in the current financial climate.

And yes I still believe that the correlation we are seeing between those markets has nothing to do with the increased number of institutional investors in crypto. And much more with the global inflation and handling of that by the FED and its non-US counterparts.  

Hence by the time, the FED thinks they did enough the correlation will lessen because in the essence these are two different markets. 

Where Crypto, due to the strong correlation between BTC and other cryptocurrencies, should be looked at as a hybrid of gold and stocks, with the high-risk asset footnote of course.

And stocks are ....well just stocks or boomer crypto if you like.

Back to the relief rally

Did we have relief rallies before? Yes, we always did. Look at March 2014 a almost 50% up from $360 to $660.

Or in July 2018. Both times after the lower low, there is a rally, a 45% and a 30% rally.

So what does that mean for 2022? 

Well if we will see a 40% rally from the 26K bottom we should end up around 36-37K, I can be a K or two off, but 35k is a sure thing if you ask me.

Does that mean we got rid of the bears?

Not at all, we are still in the woods with the bears trying to outrun them. This is working for now, but I am sure the bears will catch up with us in July and we will see a new lower low. Just like in July 2018 and October 2014.

Have a lovely day, remember that hitting the like button is one of the few free things in life, and hope to see you tomorrow.

Previous Forecast:

The Crypto Weather Forecast - This Bear Market will last till March 2023

The Crypto Weather Forecast is my daily take on the crypto market, sometimes serious, sometimes sarcastic, often with a wink, and Always Honest.

Post Scriptum:

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