Can I Trust The BTC Chart That Predicts The Future?
Last week I was talking about Crypto and trust. Well, more about how those two do not mix very well. Pointing out that you can not believe anyone in this space, because everyone has ulterior motives.
The only thing you might try trusting were the cycles, but what if you make a model based on those cycles? Turn that into a chart, could you trust that chart?
What Chart?
Don´t tell me that you have not found this magical mystery chart that predicts the BTC future.
Seriously, you never heard of the: Bitcoin cycle repeat chart
Well you have now, and once it´s seen you can´t unsee it so I hope you took a good long look and saw this coming:
Yup, Sugar we are going down, further down than SBF took us last year, all the way to 15K by March 2024.
Am I spreading Doom or Gloom or giving you hope that you can still buy cheap?
If it´s one of those you have not learned last week´s lesson;
Don't trust anyone and nothing is for certain.
But based on the fact I have some faith in that cycle thingy, so how accurate is that Cycle Chart? Can I do some short-term trading based on these predictions?
Let me check it out and lose some money so you don´t have to!
For Example
Should I wait with buying any crypto till March 2024?
Well who knows, nothing is impossible but and this is my favorite but the Big Butt:
But I did my checks. Now let me tell you what I found.
I started my DYOR 18-April-2023
At that point, it looked like we will hit 49K by the end of May, make sure I sell and go away.
And we would only be pulling up by mid-November, Sell in Jan 2024 as we have an eye on the dip mid-Feb.
In Reality, Nothing happened from April;
It was one big flatbread since March
21-April-2023
Expectations were a Low 27K in that first week of May while first going back to 30k.
In reality, that was bloody accurate:
We touched 30K ain't the end of April and went a little below 27K first 10 days of May.
30-April-2023
See how the expected before the blow-off top is melting from 49K it dipped to a little above 40K in just two weeks. Still, I am holding my bags to sell in May and go away because the next time we hit 40K will be in early August 2024. But the Dip in early May now shows 25.7 and as per our check, it did not go below 26.3.
08-May-2023
So now we should hit 33K in a week, but in reality:
We did not even get to 31K by the end of June.
18-May-2023
That 49K peak, went to 40K, and within a month it is 37K by the end of May, but as we all know even that did not happen.
31-May-2023
We had no blow-off top to sell in May and go away, and expectations are that by the end of June, we would hit a very low 24K. While in reality, the ETF story took BTC to 30K again.
15-August-2023
Now look at the future of Bitcoin:
We should hit 21.5K on the first day of my October Holidays, hence 12th of October, and a month later we should be below 20K again.
But in that October month, we would go back to 27K, so buy the dip mid-October, sell End October, buy the November dip, and then wait till after X-Mas for the next little pump.
Just to synch that with what the chart looked when I started my little test:
It looked like we were pulling up by Mid-November back then, but now that same Mid-November is a nice buy-the-dip opportunity.
So the dips might shift but the volatility makes sense.
EDIT
As I was working on this story we had that dip to 25K on the 17th of Aug; The initial part of that dip we expected to happen in the 2nd week of September. That September Dip is still there, it´s just a little less steep.
21-August-2023
Bottom Line
It´s very clear that in Crypto History does not repeat, but it does rhyme.
Short-term trades based on the Cycle Repeat chart seem to fail more often than they deliver.
What it does do is help you zoom out, see the bigger picture and understand that based on historical data 19K three months from now would not be weird at all.
It shows that even just before the halving there can be several opportunities to get in at the right time.
No Financial Advice
Best not to look at the dates too much, but keep your eyes on those opportunities.
Best not DCA all your dollars, but also keep a stash of dry powder to buy the real dip.....because Dip Is Coming.
Thank goodness you made it till the end peace, love and I am out of here!
[Source Pic](All pictures are by MyI & AI)