Bear Market Basics

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I am just telling the story about a little noob exploring the Big Bad Crypto-verse and mak... [more]

2 years ago

Topics: Bear Market, Basics, Forecast, Crypto, Preparation, ...

Are you all enjoying this current bear market capitulation as much as I do? This is the best time to be in crypto, isn´t it. The feeling in your stomach seeing the value of your portfolio dwindle day after day. My once 12K portfolio is now down to 4K and melting.

Maybe it is because I had time to prepare.....a lot of time. I have been looking into this bear market for months. At first, I thought that the realized price would be a pretty good bottom for this market hence 21-23K.

But looking deeper into this crypto winter I soon figured out that every cycle showed exactly the same pattern a 15-20X from bottom to top and then an 80% drop.

Then I thought we did not do a 20X this cycle, but diving even deeper showed me that we did do 20X this cycle and that we did a lot more x´s in the previous cycles. But the main thing is that the 80% drop from the bottom to the top is something that happened every cycle so far.

Crypto Weather Forecast - BTC did do a 20X this cycle

So-Called Experts

Now there are these guys called experts that have their opinion on this issue, but the general opinion is that how broader the adoption is the lower the peaks and drops will be.

Now that might be true, but we already dropped 70% so we are already so close to that 80%.

Months ago I was crazy thinking 20K would be feasible, now it was and that required an 18K drop. Now we only need a 6K drop to reach that 80% we dropped 6K in 2 days this week. So 6K is peanuts or cashews if you like those better.

I was prepared, but why were companies such as Celsius not prepared? I am not an expert, but they have a lousy risk mgmt if they were not able to see this risk. If a noob like me sees this coming....why not people that get paid 10X?

These are basic Bear Market Basics......

MicroStrategy seems to do a better job:

Dismissing the margin call speculation, Michael Saylor is dismissing any margin call speculations as long as the loan-to-value ratio stays below 50%. He pointed to a previous tweet, which suggested that a margin call could only take place if the BTC price fell below $3,562.

Now Michael is a magnet for positivity so I will take some salt with his tweet, but I think that their risk management is in place at least expecting that 12-14K bottom.

Shaking out the weak companies

So any company that did not see this company is not worth your crypto. But on the positive side think about the prices in March 2025

Think about the stories we can tell the new joiners during the next bull run....we will be such o.g.´s

Buying stocks at the start of the bear market provides you with a 22% profit in 12 months on average. Imagine what that would mean for crypto!

The bear market blues is all about investing wisely. Especially during these tumultuous times you should DCA spot buyings on the way down. No leverage, no longs, no shorts just wait taking risks till we bottom out. At this rate that will take 2-6 weeks max.