Bags To The Future - I have a Bull Market Plan
Bags to the future?? What the hell is that for a title?
Well, it´s a title for a post I have been considering for quite a while. Because like many of you, I was left holding very expensive bags and seeing them melt. Melt in price and not increase in size. Bags I bought at the end of the bull run, or way too early on the way down.
What to do with my old bags?
What did you do with those bags?
Sold at a loss?
Holding and Hoping they pump again next bull run?
If a coin pumped last run, that is no guarantee they pump again this run. You can definitely expect them to move, but they might not do that 10X you need to break even. Might, being an understatement.
Some narratives from the last run will not see a similar growth. Other narratives might not even take off again.
That doesn´t mean that many coins will probably set a new ATH. I expect blue chips such as ADA and MATIC to easily get to their previous tops and possibly go beyond. They will probably do that 15x without breaking a sweat.
But for example, a coin like Sand I see as a bigger risk.
The Metaverse narrative is as good as dead. Same goes for NFTs all magical words last run, and now they seem like signs of the time that has passed.
What Shitcoins Am I Holding
I have reviewed my bags and swapped them lately for more relevant narratives, Luckily, I held mostly layer ones, layer two´s, but still there was enough poo left that I felt like swapping for something more modern.
And swapping is not losing, you don´t lose a penny if you swap to a more promising narrative.
Of course everyone says AI is the new narrative, and it is but it also is a big risk. I don´t invest too much in AI until the bulls really start running because it´s shaky ground. SEC is going after AI, Crypto and AI are not a match made in heaven and just like NFTs this narrative can be gone before you know it....and certainly before we see BTC at a new ATH.
If we get another bull run what is my strategy?
Based on my previous article about seeing the future based on historical data I expect that we will see one more dip around the halving (26th April 2024).
That is when I will put my ear to the ground and invest in the narratives that are popular at that point in time. Of course only a part, I will diversify quite a bit.
In addition, I am holding 60% of my portfolio in BTC and a bit of ETH & BCH which I will not change. The exciting stuff sits with that 40%, those I plan to play with and invest in the below.
Narratives I like:
Popular Layer Ones (Injective Kadena Polkadot Radix FTM Phala Network)
Layer two´s (ARB, OP)
Blue Chips (ADA, ALGO, VET THETA)
Some small caps (MoonBeam, NGC, ROSE Opul LTO EWT)
New Narratives (DYDX CFX PBX KAVA RNDR)
So I know what I want to be holding, and I am pretty much on track. I am holding 12.5% of that 40% still in stables but with the dips I foresee I plan to have none left by May 2024.
It´s a bit much!
Yup, maybe my play portfolio as I like to call it is a bit much with 25 coins/tokens. But it´s already an improvement from what I had last time.
By the end of the last bull run, I was holding close to 70 tokens.
Why Not?
I thought it was smart to diversify, and if something sounded interesting I had to have it. And in the bull run that was okay, buy the dip sell it at 10-30% up, and repeat.
This did not work in the bear market and left me with some very expensive bags, bags that might never see a future. So far only one of them really died as it was delisted but costed more in fees to move than what was left of the bags worth.
But many of these bags potentially will never reach their ATH, so as I said I swapped most. Still holding some like QI and HOD hoping for a miracle.
The Plan
My master plan is to sell what I can sell from these old bags during the first ALTSZN. That would also apply to narratives that I expected to do good, but let me down a little
Ending up with a play portfolio with about 20-25 tokens. Because that is the max I can track. And when I see track it´s both prices and future developments. If I can get back to 15 even better.
What happens in 2025
Here is where my plan is still a work in progress. By mid-2024 I expect to be done accumulating, this is when prices should start to go up. When prices are clearly moving up, and BTC is and remains above 35K I stop investing and accumulating and start praying.
On my knees, hands stretching to the heavens hoping I at least bought some 1000X´s.
Why 35K, because I expect that to be 80% from the conservative top, meaning I expect BTC to top out at 175K at the least. I´ll get to where I get that number from in a minute, but it´s just math.
That´s where it gets difficult
As I always say I was born in a bull run and I traded my $200 dollars up to $2400 by selling on the way up and buying back during the dips.
That was because I missed out on the accumulation phase, now I have options.
Will I go all Diamond Hands till November 2025:
Or time the dips and trade my way up?
There are so many fanatic hodlers that claim they made more by holding than I could make trading the bull run.
When I say trading it´s really simple, I sell on the way up and buy back on the way down, because volatility is your friend in a bull run.
I did very well last time and did a 12X on my initial $200 investment.
Now I have not tried that hodl thing but it sounds boring. Still, I will need to figure it out for myself. Hence by Q3 of 2024 I will split my play portfolio into a hodl and a trade section.
It will at least give me the satisfaction of trading and the possible bigger returns on hodling.
My next struggle is how long do I hold
I got the selling on the way up and buying on the way down covered. But how long should one hodl?
Last time we did almost a 20x from the 3.5K bottom to the 68K top. So being conservative we can do a 10X BTC. 10X will do at least 150K.
That will be my call to look at my hodl portfolio and start selling. That should be around April 2025:
It would give me from April till November to get a nice price for the ALTS I have been holding.
While I would also ensure that I would sell my buyback the dip portfolio in this period.
I love it when a plan comes together
You need a plan & need to be flexible because a plan is only a plan on paper. If reality throws you lemons you make a Mojito without lime.
But at least I have a plan:
I know what Coins I want
I have time to accumulate
I can buy the bottom and sell on the way to the top
I trust in cycles and their timeline.
I know the top is the start of the bear market.
I know the bear-market bottom is always lower than you expect and higher than you hope
I trust that whatever top we reach the next bottom is about 80% of that top (e.g. the next bottom should be at least 36K)
Bottom Line
My Financial Advice check what you are holding from the last bull run. Swap the dead narratives for something more popular and then make a plan!
Plan till when you will accumulate.
Plan your strategy, e.g. buy the dip sell on the way up, hodl, or a bit of both.
Plan your profit margins and timeline, e.g. when should I start selling & by when should it be sold?
And most importantly, have a plan; stick with it, but be flexible.
Thank goodness you made it till the end peace, love and I am out of here!
[Source Pic](All pictures are by Meme, MyI & AI)
