To those who want to watch the latest video of Sir @MarcDeMesel here is the link:
and here is the written version :)
Hello dear friends. How are you doing? Long time no see, For this sheet, the video on my portfolio, The crypto market cap at the Trololo trend-line plotted out and looking at to keep the market cap that's been going up well and also Bitcoin BCH and look at the same Trololo shots, and there we are. Based on my portfolio I’ve been doing very well, average return now is 50% since 2008 compound annual growth rate, deducting 5% per year for real inflation and this is the US dollar returns and that drops about 5% per year the value of the US Dollar so I deduct that but not as the 15th year which is a tremendous return that I'm very proud of first it's a long duration had 2008 and to today that's many years, 13 years and so.
So how does my portfolio look these days? Crypto has an obvious to be like 40% exposure, but it has gone up to about 70% exposure. of which still the smallest exposure of Etherium and the largest by far to Bitcoin Cash almost 6% exposure. So my portfolio is now a majority exposed to Bitcoin Cash it has gone up to Bitcoin cash at $830, the bottom was many years ago around $100. It's been a long time around 200 ore-ordered and I've been going up an hour passed. Months from around 400 to 800 now. Etherium also on the rise reached its all-time high but likely going to 10K over the next few months already and Bitcoin Cash is likely going to 30k over the next few months. It's going for a hyperbolic up. So so I think we will be very quickly at the peak here at this rate. Let me share that also, looking at the Trololo shot here of the Crypto market cap, so we are at 2.2 trillion. But yeah, we went up very quickly this year here. We start the one trillion at the end of the year the December and January. And the start of the year We didn’t reach the all-time high but on the first day of the year in January the 3rd to 4th, we broke the all-time high of 800 billion. So this year we broke the all-time high at the start 800 billion and we went to double that immediately 1.6 trillion in one month and a half. When sideways a little You need the first month sideways a little and continue its rise up. So if you look at this Bitcoin of crypto Bubbles and they always go last steep here. This was a very steep little bit less steep, maybe last steep, and a little bit less steep. So the inclination is last the growth rate is last over time, but it's still of course spectacular. Because every double it's still parabolic, this growth rate. very low you can see clear parabolic trend line again that leads to a doubling rate that is faster and fast and for example we went basically from 1 trillion 2 to trillion in the past three months Yon January, February and March took the base to go from 1 trillion to 2 trillion, so likely we will double again but not in three months may be in one month and a half to around 4 trillion. And some I said is also five days ago hear in noise. cash. of course guys. If you want to follow my work these days. I post the most valuable content on noise. But yeah, we will likely like double in another, not 3 months but another one month and a half or so from 2 to 4 Trillion and then there's only one doubling left and that will be probably the month after so expect in only three months will go from to 2 Trillion to about 7 trillion or so and we are today at a Trololo shot a 350% of the evaluation here. Yes. There are 2.2 Trillion, the fair value that the trend line here stands at around 630 billion. So we're about 350% at compared to the trend line, the trend line being a hundred percent. And we expect to only go to 800% and if you building a margin of safety, you can see this going down now every bubble you have less overvaluation. Actually you should, of course, looking profits at 600% here, where at 350, 600%, Of course in the meantime the trend does go up because we're above it. And so as long as the price is above the trend line, it gets pulled up to its a bit every time so But if I look at my crypto investment plan here, I think my estimate is realistic. This will be the peak probably 800% versus the trend line. I'm already in the middle of the Year by August. So at that point, the trend line will not be 600 billion but 900 billion and you take in 10% of that your at 7 Billion, but you probably need to like lock-in profits here. That's the safe margin. And it’s already 5 Trillion, huh? Not that 7th Trillion and it's not that 30K where I expect Bitcoin BCH to pick out that 15K you start to look inside profit straw and it’s not a 10K for Etherium but 5K for K. We didn't only has one doubling left and I mean 2 doublings bitcoin BTC, a Segment Coin also known or the Bank coin these days and only has one doubling left because it's already at 60 can peak is very likely to be only a hundred chaos. But you cannot like try to lock in profit at its peak. It's very risky, it’s much safer to leave the last doubling to the courageous ones. Locking profit before that, why because it’s going to go very fast, in just a matter of weeks that you do the last doubling after that you have lots of flash crashes and It’s much more pleasant to look in profits on the way up than to try to chase price down. than looking profit that way. what you can of course also wait for the rebound, the rebound, and sell them that’s of course very typical pattern that you see, after every zoom in. You always seem a crash from the top and then a rebound. You can of course wait for that also, it also depends on how much capital you invest, because liquidity is the lowest, like nobody is selling on the way up. Everybody is hobbling so that’s why the price goes parabolic because they have less and less hours because every seller says like D**m I shouldn’t have sold, look it rises up again today. As the people start to sell, less and less, greed is picking up also and people that didn’t buy said damn I should have bought and so what you see is that. The maximum volume is not at the peak. It’s once it starts crashing is also for you because then suddenly it everybody wants to buy and sell. But yeah, it’s rush hour again. It's better to do it beforehand when there is actually little selling than you're the only one basically offering something for sale and gets eaten up quickly on the way up, I like to sell that way so. were not that far off from that moment. it was too soon like if you look here like it is too soon to sell, why?. because the chances are very low today for many reasons that I'm not going to go through but for which I recommend.
Collin talks Crypto I shared in noise 4 weeks ago and he goes to many indicators, one of them also being a strong trend line, but many others very go to how likely it is that we reach the peak and he says that it's like 70% third. There are only a few where you could say like, yes, we were very close to the peak. NUPL is 95% off almost hit the peak but the other ratios not yet. For example, The Trololo trend line also read only 60% from the peak and 40% to go. And of course, it depends on a lot of what you're invested in because there's a big difference between BTC and the other cryptocurrencies, BTC actually has many flashing indicators, you have the peak. For example, Celebrities investing in BTC, BTC talked about in many places, but okay if you look at google search like that far off when celebrities are also investing in it and peacocking it on their social media. so such the beautiful lady from Hilton Hotels.
So Still some time to go, but it's probably going to go fast. If you look at Bitcoin BCH, the trend line is pulled down when I shared this sheet for the first time a month or two months ago the trend line if I extrapolate it was today a hundred twenty-five Billion. But once I fill in all the numbers of the past few months, the trend line has gone up one month and a half from work Ten Billion, last time I reported on is 215 Billion. So plus 50% for BCH, but in the meantime that the trend line went down because the BCH evaluations are below the trend line. So every time you do that, you always get pulled down a little bit more the trend line and so for example it should be under 25 Billion. But then when you recalculate the trend line with last month's price data actually gets down again. It's not a hundred Billion, that's the fair value of Bitcoin BCH right now. But still, almost 10 times higher than their actual market value is which is only 15 Billion. And so still have lots of catching up to do here. You also see other ratios of BCH versus BTC price, the BCH versus Etherium price. They're still close to all my losses but not at an all-time low anymore. We used to be at the ratio of hundred now ratio of 80 for Bitcoin versus BCH.
Of course, my strategy is not to sell, if you want to do a hundred baggers. You need to hold them till they hung the back and then you sell them. So I use the Kelly criterion to invest but once I'm invested I'm not going to like the famous lady of the art investments does, trade around position as they give it a beautiful name, which means once does that goes iron tips and exposure always selling and selling and selling, of course, then it's hard to make lots of money when you're always working in profits and costly shipping away from your position have to keep your position in tack the whole way up and then you sell strongly at the top. that's the challenge and that's trying to do it often. But that means basically that you don't sell anything. I almost try to sell anything, when you reached extreme over evaluation when all went different indicators show that it's likey the top and that means using a Trololo Shot but also other things like how much do people talk about it, what sentiment in the community and there are actually means take it does not follow my work. It saw that I saw that I 1500 and my full position but also held a from around $200, $2,500, but if continued to go up. I hadn't. Yes according to the Trololo trendline. It was overvalued but should have looked also at other indicators because sentiment was not yet overly greedy. Not that everybody was talking about Tesla yet, but that's the case today after we going to gain from 3000 to 4000. of course, there was a stock split so that that's now by five they do now around 700-800, so you do times 5, that's about 3500 just now the 12,000. So if doubled again after I talked to hit the peak very likely to happen again with BCH especially considering this short where I feel values so much higher and then you're just not fair valuation. Likely you're going to overshoot it please to be a green line. Where is that now? It's right here stay on the 370 billion and it's time to 20 from here. But that's almost 15K-20K. But at that point in time, it could double again shortly and it could go above the green line because average to the mean and a reversion to the mean goes in both ways. The more you will you're getting depressed. The more likely you will also shoot also tremendous. So that's the big risk of Bitcoin bch that it may actually reach this kind of valuations, but it goes to how much thousand percent only prepare. So that means you go to 1 Trillion not a hundred Trillion but one Trillion, that's possible. It's not probable but it is possible. To reach in three months, it's crazy. But actually many cryptos have done within the process each such a massive gains in such a short time frame almost all of that I missed personally, but maybe I'll pick up on now. And the narrative is there like the story is that you always need you to need of course the logistics to be in place for that to happen. Basically, a huge shortage and supply and a very huge demand and a very big gap between these that's possible effort are going to BCH when the narrative changes like, oh my God is he BTC has actually not Bitcoin. Look it's indeed not filled with cash in this is unusable transaction fee is now 300 dollars per transaction everybody suddenly realized and that's when you credit Tipping Point that I can 20 percent of the mass Market or of the BTC fans realize that oh my God, actually, it's not a real Bitcoin or 20 percent of the market and semi game tipping points and then and then you can go, but it is BCH, that's actually the real Bitcoin actually get a very big Flippin Supply the market that may cause such valuations and Then you sold that if you sold, What do you think was the top? You may have very sore grapes just a month late. That's a bit of the problem also here.
Note: If you see errors kindly message me so that I can edit, thank you.
