Blockchain 2020: A Real-World, Plain-Language Prediction of What the New Year Will Bring
By
W. Paul Alexander
for
Better Call Paul Blow
Hello there, everyone!
With the new year approaching, there are a ton of those who have offered their input of what will happen in the cryptosphere in the coming year. While those of us who can comprehend the financial-ese language and charts offered in these financial predictions, it will NOT be the work of bar graphs of your favorite ERC-20 token's price performance that persuades society into mass adoption of cryptocurrency and other digital assets as a store of value -- rather, it will be real-world use cases that determine where we go.
Let's take a look at some of the recent happenings that are likely to affect the crypto market to the point of mass adoption being a possibility.
1. Government and NGO. Increased government and NGO research and pilot programs in which current products and commodities, such as WePower token and its tokenization of electricity generation and the Red Cross and their pilot programs which utilize blockchain technology to distribute and track disaster relief funds.
This is where we have to take a look at the motives behind the entities developing these projects to determine what the true purpose is. I previously wrote an article in which I warned that Red Cross's use of blockchain to track how disaster funds are used has the capability of allowing governments and NGOs to take control of this data and use its blockchain to enhance mass surveillance of the population. Decentralization is all but lost when it comes to these types of projects, too -- which is one of the main features that drew us all to the blockchain space to begin with.
My prediction for 2020 is that government adoption of blockchain will become more prominent. In the United States, expect pilot programs for distributing food stamp benefits and welfare checks to be blockchain-based. More than likely, it will be hundreds of pilot programs in all 50 states where small groups are selected to participate in receiving their funds on a blockchain-based benefit card, let's call it the "Electronic Benefit Transfer Token." These programs will likely face testing on many different platforms to determine the best-case scenario for scaling up to cover the millions of people in the US who receive food stamps and welfare benefits.
Government adoption of blockchain will turn the technology into a massive surveillance system, which is something I have also written about in detail (see my old posts on Publish0x with regard to government abuse of blockchain). However, widespread government implementation of any blockchain project would catapult blockchain into the mainstream, even those projects not affiliated with the government's use. Government implementation may be the catalyst that forces the public into mass adoption of crypto as a whole, but will cost a major premium in terms of lost privacy and other rights.
2. OECD Report. On January 4, 2020, to use another example, the OECD, a European watchdog agency, has issued a report in which they warn that blockchain makes it easier to launder funds and dodge tax authorities. This report can be read by clicking here. The OECD is a major NGO in Europe and Asia, and what they have published in this report will likely drive the way in which the EU makes cryptocurrency regulation and legislation in the future.
This report will have lasting effects on the price of BTC and alts, likely adding to their volatility.
3. Bitcoin Halving. The upcoming halving of Bitcoin's block reward will have a major impact on the price of bitcoin. By cutting the block reward in half, this means that scarcity will increase, and in turn, will likely boost the price of BTC. Anytime something is made more scarce, it generally increases in value. Of course, because there is really no intrinsic value behind digital assets like there is with gold and other precious metals, it is not really possible to predict just how much of an upward price trend that the halving will see.
Thousands of articles on the upcoming halving have been written, so I will not try to reinvent the wheel. I will simply note that this halving will have the effect of making BTC's scarcity rise, which should amount to an increase in price, possibly commensurate to the halving itself.
What I am doing, going forward:
I am invested heavily in quite a few HODL projects, and those will likely stay held in 2020, at least until the platforms they are related to grow their user base and user interface. The exception to this, of course, will be for small alt projects that pass their "sell" target, at which point I will sell and go on to others.
I am putting more into bitcoin than I normally keep. Because I expect 2020 to see quite a bit of surge in the price of BTC, I will probably move about 60% of my crypto into BTC, 20% in the runner-up coins like ETH, LTC, and BCH; and the remaining 20% into volatile alts (about 2-3%), new projects (8-10%), and stablecoins (up to 10%).
I expect the price of BTC to easily break 10k at some point in the first quarter of 2020, possibly even by a growth of around 25%-40% of today's values.
Conclusion
Please understand that the above article comprises my own personal feelings regarding where we are going as we start a new decade. It is not intended to be financial advice, but is instead meant as a vocalizing of my own view going forward.
I hope you have enjoyed this brief report. Comments are always welcome. Please note that, while I do read and comprehend the numerous hundreds and thousands of bitcoin and alt price predictions, I just wanted to share these brief points in a common-language method.
Thanks for reading!
W. Paul Alexander