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2 years ago

I think BCH has lifted off and has reached escape velocity! I think the only question is if we're going to hang around low-orbit, high-orbit, LaGrange point or shoot straight for the moon.

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Might be I'm a tad bit over-enthusiastic, but even then, the odds of BCH's price and other stats rising to levels we've not seen in weeks are better than them digging a hole in the bottom to sink through!

And when I look at the trading view overview with the analysis of other traders, I notice I am not alone in my optimistic outlook!

Have a look yourself!

The way I look at it, the Bitcoin Cash price is still disappointingly much following the b t c price movements. As that coin went through the resistance level which it was not able to do since dropping below it (at least not this clearly) BCH slipped past its resistance of $510 that has been holding us back for a week or so. Regardless of the cause, though, the most important is that we've broken through the resistance.

A few days without major negative news in the crypto-verse.

What we need now to solidify this uptrend and strengthen the movement upwards into a bull run over the summer holidays reaching ATH's around the end of October, beginning of November is one or two more days without major negative news in the crypto universe so the fear for huge price drops in the near future abates enough for the confidence that drove the run-up to the previous ATH's can return a bit.

But not all is well, and swift action is needed: Bitcoin Cash needs to find itself!

Simetry has come to the same conclusion I have, and that is that Bitcoin Cash needs to focus on one distinguishing attribute and concentrate all efforts on that in Development, marketing, and mindset. I'm quoting Simetry:

Bitcoin Cash Report Highlights

  • Bitcoin Cash does not have a much-needed unique selling point 

  • The project faces substantial competition from comparable cryptocurrency projects

  • Bitcoin Cash has faced a 51% attack on the network

  • Over the past year, the project lost more than 60% of its active developers

  • The popularity of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Cash Trust is fast eroding

Bitcoin Cash has failed to beat Bitcoin in terms of transaction volume and network hashrate metrics. Although current technological improvements on the Bitcoin Cash network provide some benefits, they are not enough to attract more extensive usage of the protocol. The project needs to find a unique value proposition. Otherwise, it risks losing supporters

I also mentioned that Bitcoin Cash shouldn't try to be, claim to be, or want to be, a btc replacement. BCH is best for being general use, every day, low entry barrier cryptocurrency which is ready to be used besides or instead of normal cash money!

TokenInsight has a good point too. We would do good to think about it!


Developing Outlook


Technical feasibility is good, the status of operations is relatively stable, the possibility of influence on the project by unfavourable changes in the environment or uncertain factors exists to a relatively large extent, and risk is basically controllable.

Bitcoin Cash's future largely rests in developers' hands.

So the conclusion right now that I come to is that besides the whole community needing to agree on, and communicate to the world that, BCH's goal and purpose are to be general use, everyday currency to augment or replace normal cash money the developer community needs to step up and solidify BCH's resistance against outside influence or other factors. BCH needs to have protection, so it's invulnerable to (for instance) 51% of attacks. But I am afraid that might be difficult and getting harder, looking at development activity for BCH:

Despite there being an undeniable wave pattern there's also an undeniable lower peak in the wave, and Simetri concurs, stating BCH has lost over 60% of its active developers. If you're an incurable optimist, you'll say that too many developers cause strife and division in the community, but it also restricts the range of development ideas and broadens the time between idea and implementation of developments.

So what is it? A positive outlook or A negative outlook of the future?

I am sorry, but my answer isn't going to be much help there. It's BOTH. For the short term (until the end of this year) I am super positive. I am sure that we will see an All-Time High by the end of October or the beginning of November. I'm pretty confident that the holiday season will maintain the level reached into the new year, too!

But for the long term, I'm not so sure. If the community fails to convince the outside world of BCH's differentiating and identifying characteristic not being a replacement or competitor of btc but being a general use currency, Bitcoin Cash's growth might stagnate. If the development community fails to strengthen BCH or if the developer community/activity continues to shrink, there is not much that I can think of that can keep BCH from losing confidence, momentum, and ultimately just lose period.

My opinions and predictions aren't just how I see it!

The reason I literally quoted two of the most recognized and praised sources on cryptocurrency information and analysis was precisely to clarify that! There is a huge part of the crypto- and bch-community that thinks the same things i do. And where you might dismiss my ramblings out of hand without consideration, you might reconsider when they're backed up by TokenInsight and Simetry.

I am not trying to convince you to agree with me!

I am trying to convince you to look into the issues I've raised in this article using whatever sources you feel comfortable with and form your own opinion! Have a look yourself with an open mind (not blinded by the starry-eyed look of a BCH fan) and decide what you make of it with the information you trust. That's all I'm trying to accomplish. Because it is true, I'm a BCH fan, and that means that my opinions are suspect and in need of verification. (IMHO everything you read or hear is always suspect and in need of verification, but that's another article altogether)


Thank you for reading this article, hope you enjoyed it. If you liked it, a click on the thumbs up would be much appreciated. A tip or subscribe would be too awesome for the word awesome to describe. Stay safe, and stay Happy!


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2 years ago