The general consensus is that it will take two to three years – but some analysts are predicting up to seven years, if not longer, for full recovery.
While business travel evaporated in a flash when the coronavirus hit, it may take two to three years for it to fully recover – far longer than many travel experts initially predicted.
Even that timeline, said Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel market research firm in San Francisco, depends on “the broader economy, the industry a firm operates in and demand for its products or services, as well as the public health environment.”
And two to three years may be too optimistic – at least for a recovery by the major airlines.
Michael Derchin, an airline analyst, described the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on carriers as “Sept. 11 and the Great Recession on steroids.” He estimated that it could take airlines seven years, if not longer, to recover.
While business travellers make up about 10 per cent of all passengers on the major airlines – including American, Delta, United, Lufthansa and Singapore – they generate half the airlines’ revenue, Derchin said. And Harteveldt estimated that business travellers were responsible for 55 per cent to 75 per cent of major airlines’ profits worldwide. Not only do business travellers buy more expensive and profitable tickets, they are also more likely to hold airline credit cards and buy airport lounge memberships, among other services.