Attributing Intense Hospitalisations (ICU) To COVID19 (France, Germany)
Today MEP Sonneborn stated that 12 Million Corona infections in France over the course of three weeks have only led to 750 additional Covid patients in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) [0]. This implies an Infection ICU Rate of only 0.00628 %. That's your grossly averaged chance to get to ICU in France if you are infected with Corona.
This low number is in stark contrast to the felt reporting of Covid19 severeness. That's even more true if we take a second look at the attribution of hospitalisations to Covid19. E.g. in Germany there is no differentiation whether a patient is on ICU due to Covid19 or due to some other disease. As long as the patient is positively tested to Covid, the numbers will go up [1].
That leads to the absurd situation that someone who is on ICU because of a stroke or a bicycle accident but is positively tested to Covid will also increase the Covid ICU counting. To my reading of the correspondence between Tim Röhn, independent journalist for WELT, and DIVI, the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine, it does not even matter whether the patient is COVID symptomatic or not [1].
If the reporting of Covid19 ICUs in France and Germany adheres to a similar logic and we apply these numbers to the whole population of say Germany (83.129.285) [2]
83129285 * 0.00628% = 5224we arrive at a total of 5224 ICUs needed to buffer a full contamination of the population. That is when literally everybody is infected with the virus at the same time. Now let's have a look at the actual reported numbers: The last wave tops at 4918 ICUs taken [3].
Integrating over the whole last wave might very well imply that the whole population of Germany was indeed already infected. If this is true then what is the purpose of infection prevention measures? What do you think? Leave me a comment.
[0] https://twitter.com/MartinSonneborn/status/1484280371483222018
[1] https://mobile.twitter.com/Tim_Roehn/status/1481624973831778307
[2] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutschland
[3] https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/zeitreihen