Azerbaijan-Armenia War: Could this conflict turn into a bigger war?

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Mizanur Rahman Khan BBC Bangla, London

There is a danger of outside forces getting involved in this war.

In Eastern Europe, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been at loggerheads for days over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region of the South Caucasus. There have been tensions between the two countries over the region in the past, as well as military conflicts, but they were all limited.

This year's war, which began between the armies of the two countries in the former Soviet Union, is different from previous conflicts. The magnitude of the current conflict, the type and the response of the international community - all of which have surpassed all recent tensions in the region.

Large cannons, tanks, missiles and drones are being used in the war, which started abruptly on Sunday morning, September 7th. The clashes have so far killed more than a hundred civilians and several Armenian fighters. Baku has not yet commented on the damage to Azerbaijan's military. However, it can be assumed that they have also suffered a lot.

The Armenian army occupied the Karabakh region after the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Internationally the area belongs to Azerbaijan, but it is managed by ethnic Armenians. Both countries claim the area as their own.

The reason why this recent war started is not very clear. However, reports suggest that Azerbaijani forces are trying to retake the vast area, the latest in a series of wars.

When Armenia occupied Nagorno-Karabakh in 1992-94, about one million Azeri refugees fled. Since then, there have been repeated diplomatic stalemate between the two countries in the region over the past few decades, with threats to attack each other.

Photo source, REUTERS

Photo caption,

Civilians are also losing their lives in this war.

The International Crisis Group, or ICG, a Brussels-based international think tank, says the arms race between the two countries has escalated since the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks stalled in 2011. Besides, the threat of attacking each other has also increased.

The ICG says a situation has arisen in which any wrongdoing in military matters could lead to local conflicts, as the interests of the world's most powerful nations are at stake in the region.

"The big countries in the South Caucasus are competing. It is an important region for energy. As a result, there are clashes outside Nagorno-Karabakh on the Armenian and Azerbaijani borders," the ICG said.

In July 2020, military tensions erupted north of the international border between Armenia and Azerbaijan due to long-standing tensions. But those tensions and clashes were not as intense as this time.

What is the danger of this war

Tensions between the Armenian and Azerbaijani forces have risen sharply in recent days. But Lawrence Browers, a South Caucasus expert and researcher at Chatham House in London, says the intensity of the current war suggests that it may not be possible this time around.

"Missiles and bombs have been fired at populated areas of Nagorno-Karabakh, where the fighting is taking place. This is the first such attack since the 1990s. Civilian areas of Armenia and Azerbaijan have also been attacked," he said.

Image source, GETTY IMAGES

Photo caption,

One million people were displaced by the war in the 1990s.

Researcher Lawrence Browers says "the situation seems to be preparing for a protracted war on both sides. Azerbaijan has rejected the offer of a new round of talks with Armenia.

He said that if the war goes on for a long time, it will involve many more external forces, which could lead to the outbreak of regional wars on a larger scale.

What is the role of Turkey

Azerbaijan is an important partner of Turkey for geographical and strategic reasons. That is why Turkey has been providing moral and diplomatic support to Azerbaijan for a long time.

Contact between Azerbaijani military officials and Turkish defense officials has intensified since the July clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

After that, the two countries also conducted joint military exercises.

Turkey has expressed its unconditional support for Azerbaijan since the beginning of the conflict. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that they will provide all kinds of assistance to Azerbaijan.

You can read more:

Syrians are being sent to Azerbaijan to fight

Armenia and Azerbaijan: What is the military strength of a country?

Damama of war between Azerbaijan and Armenia

Photo source, AFP

Photo caption,

Armenian troops withdrew Azerbaijani troops from Nagorno-Karabakh during the 1990s war.

Turkey has also provided various military assistance to Azerbaijan since the start of the war. Experts say there is no doubt that Turkey is using state-of-the-art military drones in the war.

Armenia has condemned Ankara's unwavering support for Azerbaijan. They say this could lead to further escalation of the conflict.

Armenia has further alleged that Turkey shot down one of its Su-25 aircraft on September 29. Ankara, however, has denied the allegations.

Lawrence Browers, a researcher at Chatham House, said such allegations had been made before and were later found to be untrue.

Unconfirmed sources also say that Turkey is taking fighters from Syria to fight for Azerbaijan. One such fighter told the BBC's Arabic Service that he had been recruited from northern Syria last week and sent to Turkey. Turkey, however, has denied the news.

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