Forecast for 20.09.2022 for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and oil

EUR/USD Forecast Euro Dollar September 20, 2022

The European currency is declining in tandem with the dollar, winning back the increased demand for safe assets. Investors are expecting another rate hike by the Federal Reserve as August US inflation statistics showed a slower-than-expected slowdown in consumer price growth.

The euro was affected by economic data from the Statistical Office of the European Union: construction volumes in the Eurozone in June 2022 increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis after falling by 1.2% in May. On an annualized basis, the growth in construction volume amounted to 1.5%.

EUR/USD Forecast Euro Dollar September 20, 2022

The EUR/USD currency pair (Euro Dollar) continues to consolidate near the psychological level 1. The relative strength indicator on the four-hour chart has stabilized in the neutral zone after a rebound from the resistance level, a resumption of decline to the support area is expected. Thus, EUR/USD forecast Euro Dollar tomorrow (September 20, 2022) assumes a price decrease within the trading channel with updating multi-year lows.

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GBP/USD Forecast Pound Dollar September 20, 2022

The British currency remains under pressure in the GBP/USD pair. This week, the focus of market participants is the meeting of the Federal Reserve System and the Bank of England.

The dollar is in high demand in anticipation of the "hawkish" decisions of the Fed. The market puts into quotes the decision of the American regulator to raise the rate by 75 basis points. Maintaining the rhetoric about the willingness to pursue a tight monetary policy to fight inflation will support the dollar. In addition, the Fed is expected to publish updated forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators.

Technical analysis and GBP/USD forecast Pound Dollar September 20, 2022

On Monday, the pound dollar GBP/USD currency pair is trading below 1.14 near the lows reached. The RSI indicator on the four-hour chart is aimed at testing the support level, which indicates the strengthening of the US currency. As part of the FOREX forecast GBP / USD Pound Dollar on September 20, 2022, the price is expected to move towards the lower border of the trading channel to 1.13, followed by a correction.

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Oil Price Forecast (Brent). Prices froze in anticipation of the decisions of the Fed and the Bank of England

On the eve of the meetings of the Fed on September 21 and the Bank of England on September 22, oil prices are stable in the range of 90-93 dollars per barrel. In the base case, the Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 bp and the Bank of England by 50 bp. The focus of investors' attention, even to a greater extent than in fact on rates, will be the rhetoric of central banks. Today, Brent oil quotes are positive on the news about the easing of covid restrictions in the largest city of China after Shanghai, Chengdu.

Given the zero tolerance policy for covid, this is a pretty good signal in favor of a recovery in economic activity in China, and hence demand for raw materials. Statistics on drilling rigs in the US on Friday came out without any surprises: a slight increase by 8 pcs to 599 rigs, which does not change the picture of entering the "shelf": in the face of increased uncertainty, shale companies do not increase investment in production. We believe that until the Fed meeting, oil prices will remain in a narrow range of $90-93/bbl.