Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his Arab counterpart are Trump's closest allies

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his Arab counterpart are Trump's closest allies

"You must forgive me if I feel a little confused," the Saudi ambassador to Britain said as his eyes returned to his phone. "I'm looking forward to the results coming from Wisconsin."

That was eight days ago, when we did not know who would be at the White House in January.

When it was confirmed that Joe Biden had won, Saudi officials in Riyadh took time to say something contrary to the timing of Donald Trump's election.

This is not surprising: they lost a great friend up there.

Mr. Biden's success now could create a climate for Saudi Arabia and other Arab states in the Persian Gulf.

The U.S.-regional alliance dates back to 1945 and is likely to last, but change is coming and the Gulf states are unlikely to enjoy some of the changes.

Losing a great friend

President Trump is a close friend and supporter of the Saudi royal family.

Riyadh Trump was chosen as the first city to visit a country after winning the 2017 election.

His son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has forged a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia's future Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

When all Western intelligence agencies accused the Saudi Crown Prince of being involved in the 2018 assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, President Trump denied the allegations directly.

Saudi Arabia Trump first visited as US president

Another surprise was how the Prince-waiting team told people “don’t worry we have this.

Mr Trump has also rejected congressional calls for a ban on arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

So Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain will lose a key ally in the White House.

Many things will not change, but here are some things that can happen.

The war in Yemen

US President Barack Obama, under whom Mr. Biden has served as vice president for eight years, is unhappy with Saudi Arabia's war against Houthi rebels in Yemen.

By the time he left power, airstrikes had continued for almost two years without any military success as the fighting caused great damage to civilians and the country’s assets.

The Saudi alliance supports Yemeni government forces fighting Houthi rebels

As a result of the war, President Obama cut off US military and intelligence support to Saudi Arabia.

But the Trump administration has reversed that step and given Saudi Arabia more support in its war in Yemen.

Now things seem to be changing again, with Mr Biden recently telling the Foreign Ministry that he would "end US support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen and order a review of relations." land and Saudi Arabia. "

Pressure from the next Biden government on Saudi Arabia and its Yemeni allies to end the war will intensify.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have long understood that this war will not end with military victory, and are looking for a way to survive that will not allow the Houthi to remain as they were when the war broke out in March. and 2015.

Iran

President Obama's biggest achievement in the Middle East is the Iran Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (JCPOA).

As a result, sanctions against Iran have been lifted because it has also reduced its nuclear program and allowed access to nuclear facilities.

President Trump called it the “worst deal” with the withdrawal from the deal.

Now his successor intends to bring the United States back into the deal.

Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of carrying out drone strikes on oil refineries in 2019 - allegations denied by Iran

This has affected Saudi Arabia. In Riyadh at the end of the year, following a missile attack on a Saudi oil refinery, I attended a joint press conference with the Saudi Foreign Minister, Adel al-Jubeir, who criticized Iran's nuclear deal.

It is a disaster, he said, because the expansion of Iran's missile program or the deployment of its forces throughout the Middle East has not been considered.

The agreement as a whole, he said, was part of the Obama administration's failure to think about the threat posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Saudi Arabia and some of its allies have hailed the United States' killing of Iranian commander General Qasem Soleimani in a January drone strike.

And now they are worried that the next administration at the White House will ask for a request in Iran which will also cut their demand.

Qatar

Qatar is home to and very important to the US Pentagon in the Middle East where it has a U.S. military base at Al-Udeid.

From there, the United States orders air strikes in Syria to Afghanistan.

Yet Qatar faces opposition from its Arab neighbors - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt - all opposed to supporting the struggle of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Donald Trump once invited Qatar's King Sheikh Tamim Al Thani to the White House last year

Qatar's boycott came shortly after Trump's visit to Riyadh in 2017, and the countries thought he had given them support.

Trump was initially pressured into backing the measure before it was made clear that Qatar was also a US ally because the Al-Udaid camp was important to the US Department of Defense.

US President-elect Joe Biden is likely to try to reconcile differences with the Arab world, which is not in the interests of US policy or the interests of the Arab world.

But President Trump has never shown his interest in his Arab allies on the issue.

U.S. intelligence has confirmed that Jamal Khashoggi was assassinated by Saudi Arabia's crown prince

He pointed out that the demands of the United States and its trade overtook all other demands for the arrest of women activists, and the abuse of laborers in Qatar.

Or the October 2018 incident in which Saudi security forces boarded a flight to Santanbul and killed a prominent journalist who had been critical of the government Jamal Khashoggi and hid his body, which has yet to be identified.

It is difficult for President-elect Biden and his government to be forgiven