Origin Materials - Q3 '23 Earnings Analysis
Origin Materials has reported its earnings for Q3 2023 today. For the most part, I was not personally surprised to see the results. Some others must have shared my sentiment, as the stock price actually saw some upward movement in after hours trading. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231109228162/en/
With the after hours trading volume only clocking in at 166k, it is an insignificant and low volume move. It does seem, however, that investors are taking the company's shifted timeline in stride at this point. It's probably safe to say that all of the bad news from Q2 earnings, which caused the company to lose over two-thirds of its market value.
The company guided its 2023 revenue target from $40-60 million to $25-30 million. It sounds disappointing, but with the delays in the Origin 1 facility coming online, I certainly expected it. Analysts asked about 2024 revenue forecasts, which the company is not currently providing. Co-CEO Rich Riley said, "we're very focused on cash right now. Generating products to support our JDA revenues, continuing to learn for O2 and potential plants." I assume that the original 2023 guidance, given in 2021 on the original SPAC presentation, assumed O1 would by operating by the end of 2022. Given that the plant did not start producing until 10 months after that original timeframe, it makes sense that 2024 guidance will come in lighter than the original $120 million target.
As the company moves forward, it plans to ultimately use wood biomass (woodchips) as a feedstock for Origin 1. The plant is currently still running on corn starch, as planned. Of operations, co-CEO John Bissell said, "We're not running at close to rated capacity. We weren't planning to. The ramp schedule originally had lots and lots of room to bring it up to capacity."
The team at Origin 1 will need to collect more data before they can provide production capacity figures. For now, according to Riley, "O1 gives us incredible capability to deliver large-scale samples. Meaningful CMF and HTC drives our near-term JDA revenue, the principal way these materials will drive revenue. [We will] only continue to ramp going forward."
If I had to sum up the general tone of the earnings call, it would be "so far, so good." Granted, the company hasn't been hitting milestones on time but seems to have plenty of cash, for now, to get through the new few quarters. Securing funding for Origin 2 will be the biggest challenge going forward, but Bissell stated on the call that "now we see a lot of customers and partners leaning in...more options for financing, not fewer, and we haven't taken anything off the table." On the same subject, Rich Riley commented that "Our customers are very understanding that scaling new platform tech is challenging. Few alternatives. The reaction we get from customers is 'how can we help you guys scale?'...we have customers wanting to get involved in licensing conversations to help scale."
So, other than updated guidance for 2023, there really was no new material news disclosed in the report. I certainly did appreciate the video, showing the Origin 1 team actually producing product. After all, we've had to wait an extra 10+ months to see this milestone achieved. In the end, though, perhaps it will all be worthwhile. It's certainly exciting to see the team continue the world's transition to sustainable materials.
Next, we await to see the plant successfully run on woody biomass and what productivity results the data currently being collected will yield once they get to continuous operation. More will be revealed in February.
Halloween & Inflated Input Costs For Producers
Time to get spooky, if you haven't already. All Hallow's Eve brings all treats for the Bitcoin maxi and more tricks for the American consumer. Perhaps many of us are now numb to inflated product prices at the grocery store. One aisle not spared from rising prices is the candy aisle. I observed no shortages there, but the Hershey bars were definitely more expensive than last year.
And those sweet treats probably aren't going to get any cheaper, at least any time soon. Two primary ingredients of confectionaries are sugar and cocoa. The price of each ingredient has been steadily rising since the beginning of the year.
Cocoa surpassed its previous high price point, last seen in February 2011. It is up 46% since the beginning of 2023. An outbreak of black pod disease on the plants is resulting in smaller supply from West African producers.
The rising cost of both of these ingredients will ultimately translate to higher prices for consumers. As if things weren't expensive enough already. Don't let that sweet tooth get to you!
Happy Halloween
Actual Bitcoin Supply Will Be Less Than 21 Million
I wrote back in July 2021 about lost Bitcoin and actual max supply. My conclusion was that the actual max supply was around **17 million** at the time of that writing. I thought it would be interesting to revisit the subject, and see if we can draw any new conclusions. https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/lost-bitcoin-and-actual-max-supply-xnxxxyn
First, let's check the maybe not so famous **1BitcoinEater**, a Bitcoin burn address. For whatever reasons, people have sent 13.31897113 BTC to this address since 2011. When I last checked this address over two years ago, the balance was 13.28205468 BTC. Not a huge increase, but that's satoshis going to a "dead wallet" that no one has the keys to access.
The **current supply** of Bitcoin is 19,459,306 which is 92.66% of the 21 million max supply cap. We will have to wait until the year 2140 to hit that ceiling. Well, we (I, the writer and you, the reader) won't be around to see it but we (humanity) hopefully will. Anyway, the next halving (a planned reduction in the mining reward) is set for approximately April 2024. That's less than nine months to go. Historically, the price of BTC has seen a rise on each halving event.
The theory goes that as Bitcoin supply becomes more limited, the price will increase as demand increases over time. That's the idea, anyway.
In actuality, about **4 million Bitcoins** are in "dormant wallets," those which have made any outgoing transactions or have been inactive for years. That would put the actual circulating supply at approximately 15.5 million BTC. These wallets, however, cannot exactly be confirmed as housing lost Bitcoin. They could perhaps be in the hands of hodlers. There's simply no way to confirm or deny it.
There's also the cases of the several crypto influencers who have mysteriously died in recent years. It's possible they may have taken the keys with them, or perhaps they had securely stored them for someone else to inherit. Again, we may never know the full truth but it's possible these could be circumstances for lost Bitcoin (and a wormhole of conspiracy theories).
My conclusion in 2023 is essentially the same as in 2021: back then I estimated that 3-4 million Bitcoins are lost. Now I think that number is closer to 4 million. Please keep in mind that these numbers are based on educated guesses and speculation. Dormant wallets do come to life from time to time, which would mean that either the keys were recovered somehow, or someone finally decided to move their funds elsewhere. In both cases, Bitcoin that was once thought lost isn't actually lost. In these cases, it's most definitely lost:
Let's conclude with this infamous post from Satoshi himself:
Keep your keys secure and safe. If applicable, ensure they can be found for your next of kin.
CashRain Officially Goes Live
The much anticipated Bitcoin Cash powered platform CashRain has officially gone live today, according to a Tweet by creator Kim Dotcom: https://cashrain.com/
****What is CashRain?****
CashRain is a platform for content creators and influencers created by Kim Dotcom. Users can create communities, their fans join the communities on CashRain, and the creators can reward their followers by "raining" pre-determined amounts of Bitcoin Cash on them. Essentially, it is a marketing platform that creators & influencers can use to reward their fans for doing things such as liking a post/video, re-tweeting, or following. Users on the CashRain platform must link their Twitter, Discord, or YouTube accounts in order for the aforementioned activities to be verified.
****How Can I Join CashRain?****
You've got it! I'm not sure if it's still necessary but I needed a referral code to join the CashRain Beta. If you're interested in trying it out, here is an invite link. It may only be open to a certain number of registrants, so apologies in advance if it doesn't work. https://cashrain.com/invite/p2OTNCLal0
****My Experience with CashRain****
I have not tried the platform from the creator/influencer side (I may be a creator but I am far from an influencer). From the "fan" side, I have used it for about a week now and received 17,188 BCH satoshis from about half a dozen "rains." They are consistently posted, and there's always new ones to join.
The one drawback, which is just a nitpick on my part, is that you can only use a Bitcoin.com crypto wallet. It's not necessarily a bad wallet, but it's not my preferred wallet. It would have been easier if you were free to link *any* Bitcoin Cash wallet address of your choosing. But I understand that there is probably some kind of agreement between CashRain and Bitcoin.com that requires them to only accept their wallets. That's really my biggest gripe with the platform I've encountered. https://wallet.bitcoin.com/
Other than that, it seems like a novel project with a real-world utility. The timing of the launch, coming just a week after BCH being announced as a tradeable token on EDX Markets, couldn't have been better. It's certainly gaining some traction on Twitter with users sharing their winnings:
You can check out CashRain and judge for yourself. Let me know what you think in the comments below. https://cashrain.com/invite/p2OTNCLal0
****The**** ****original Bitcoin faucet**** ****is long gone, but there are still ways to collect some free crypto:**** https://web.archive.org/web/20100703032414/http://freebitcoins.appspot.com/
**Sign up on** **Publish0x** **to earn free crypto for reading & writing content** https://www.publish0x.com/?a=9wdL8l1pdj
**Join** **Cointiply** **and roll the faucet every hour, view PTC ads, take surveys to earn free Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, or Dash** http://cointiply.com/r/ND51K8
**Downoad the** **Bitcoin Cash Giveaway** **to collect some free BCH sats, paid out weekly** https://bitcoinaliens.com/?ref=5501789&game=7&pf=2
**Check out** **Yescoiner** **to easily collect some satoshis; no nonsense -- just solve a captcha. Low payout, slow drip here** https://yescoiner.com/?ref=2741950
**Final AutoClaim** **is another facuet-style site that offers payouts in 74 different coins** https://autofaucet.dutchycorp.space/?r=aaronkelly1024
**For an entertaining, off-the-wall faucet, check out** **Crypto Junkie****. Great for accumulating SPACE and SHIB** https://cryptojunkie.net/?r=67584
**Play** **Gemly****, a P2E game, and earn payouts in BTC, Litecoin, BNB, Tether, Tron, and Dogecoin.** https://gemly.link/?r=15955
**For rewards in XNO and BTC, check out** **TipNano app** https://tipnano.org/ref/o8TUNu
Bitcoin Cash Shrugs Off Dip, Continues Massive Rally
In a week where Bitcoin Cash saw over 100% gains, the price of the token briefly cooled off over the weekend, dipping back down to the $268 level and is now currently fluttering around the $300 level again.
Zoom out, and we can see that despite being in the "overbought" zone (RSI above 70), traders are still piling into BCH.
There is still a massive bull flag playing out on the chart above. Volume continues to pour into Bitcoin Cash, being the #7 most popular cryptocurrency by trading volume on the day. It seems that the lows seen earlier this year are being left in the dust, as a new base is being established with the rise in interest in BCH. Additionally, as many are speculating, as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise so will the price of its little forked brother. As time draws on, this price actually looks more and more sustainable and not just a flash in the pan.
**The** **original Bitcoin faucet** **is long gone, but there are still ways to collect some free crypto:** https://web.archive.org/web/20100703032414/http://freebitcoins.appspot.com/
Sign up on Publish0x to earn free crypto for reading & writing content https://www.publish0x.com/?a=9wdL8l1pdj
Join Cointiply and roll the faucet every hour, view PTC ads, take surveys to earn free Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, or Dash http://cointiply.com/r/ND51K8
Downoad the Bitcoin Cash Giveaway to collect some free BCH sats, paid out weekly https://bitcoinaliens.com/?ref=5501789&game=7&pf=2
Check out Yescoiner to easily collect some satoshis; no nonsense -- just solve a captcha. Low payout, slow drip here https://yescoiner.com/?ref=2741950
Final AutoClaim is another facuet-style site that offers payouts in 74 different coins https://autofaucet.dutchycorp.space/?r=aaronkelly1024
For an entertaining, off-the-wall faucet, check out Crypto Junkie. Great for accumulating SPACE and SHIB https://cryptojunkie.net/?r=67584
Play Gemly, a P2E game, and earn payouts in BTC, Litecoin, BNB, Tether, Tron, and Dogecoin https://gemly.link/?r=15955
For rewards in XNO and BTC, check out TipNano app https://tipnano.org/ref/o8TUNu
Holy Fork! Bitcoin Cash Rockets Over 100% in a Week
Bitcoin Cash, one of many forks of Satoshi Nakamoto's original Bitcoin protocol, has seen massive trading volume and over 100% gains in the past week. I am speculating that the token's inclusion on the EDX Markets platform, a tool for large financial institutions interested in trading crypto, is a big part of the reason for the recent interest.
What is most curious is how BCH's move is largely uncorrelated with Bitcoin. It's running at a rate of its own. Perhaps it is because the price is so depressed from its all-time highs, or perhaps people are realizing that for day-to-day transactions it is much more efficient and faster than the Bitcoin network it is derived from.
Myself, I am pretty pleased with all the BCH sats I've been able to stack the past few years from earning apps and websites such as the Bitcoin Cash Giveaway, Earn Bitcoin Cash app, the old noise.cash, read.cash, and others. The value of all that free crypto dust is now approaching $50 USD, so it's nice to see that all those 15 second video ads I watched weren't for naught.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) - More Room to Run Upwards?
I'm not much of prognosticator. I really don't even like to make price predictions on any crypto, given the unpredictable nature and volatility of any given token. However, I recently made the forecast that Bitcoin Cash would most likely propel over the $200 level. From my 6/24/23 post: https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/bitcoin-cash-hits-fresh-1-year-high-where-is-it-headed-xeegqzk
That bull flag played out, and BCH hit another 1-year high. Currently, it sits at about $227.
It appears that BCH is consolidating at about the $229 level. While the trading volume has seen a continued decline over the past five days, there is still some hype about the token. For now, an increase in transactions and social media chatter. The metrics, according to LunarCrush, are still extremely elevated.
So where are we heading from here? Again, I won't claim to be able to predict the future. I will say this: for now, it appears that the $228 level is acting as near-term support with resistance looking about $243. A break of that $243 level and a test of $250 would look good for BCH bulls. On the flip side, a break of $220 would mean another drop back to $200 would be the most likely scenario. In order for Bitcoin Cash to continue its rally, it will need to see sustained volume.
To put things into perspective, the token is far off of its all-time highs. But, for now, this bullish rally is generating a lot of attention.
Bitcoin Cash Hits Fresh 1-Year High; Where is it Headed?
It has been quite the day for forks of Bitcoin. Over the past week we've seen:
Bitcoin +15.80%
Bitcoin Gold +11.50%
Bitcoin SV +43.88%
Bitcoin Cash +80.23%
Truly, a monster week for Bitcoin and its counterparts. The catalyst, some may say, perhaps has been Blackrock's filing to launch iShares Bitcoin Trust, an ETF. It must mean something that the world's largest manager of assets is taking an interest in Bitcoin. Anyway, crypto all across the board has been up this week. Most impressive is the performance is Bitcoin Cash (BCH).
BCH hit a fresh 1-year high of $196.71 and saw a whopping increase of 397% in daily trading volume.
So, in addition to an overall bullish move in crypto, Bitcoin Cash was announced as one of four tokens to be traded on EDX Markets. So it seems that perceived institutional interest is again being credited as a reason for the price increase. BCH has catapulted into the #20 largest crypto by market capitalization, currently sitting at over $4 billion. https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/edx-markets-launches-for-institutional-crypto-trading-xkpolxw
Aside from the major institutional interest, retail interest is certainly growing in Bitcoin Cash. As Twitter user Kim Dotcom, who boasts over a million followers, points out:
Cashrain, currently in beta mode, is a platform where content creators make communities for their members to join. Once joined, people can send Bitcoin Cash to "rain" on the communities, and the BCH is randomly distributed amongst members. Currently, an invite code is required to join Cashrain. https://cashrain.com/
Other retail favorite Bitcoin Cash earning platforms include:
BCH.games https://bch.games/
read.cash https://read.cash/
Bitcoin Cash Giveaway app
So where is the price of Bitcoin Cash headed? Admittedly, it would pretty irresponsible of me to venture a guess. I will say this: from a technical perspective, it does appear that a test of the $200 level is in the cards in the short-term. On the monthly chart, there is a massive bull flag which can be indicative of a continued rise:
So, for now it's important to keep an eye on a continued elevation in trading volume. As long as that continues to increase, so should the price per token.
EDX Markets Launches for Institutional Crypto Trading
It was announced today that EDX Markets has launched its safe and compliant digitial asset marketplace. In other words, a new crypto exchange that's exclusively for vetted and approved firms. It's not for us individual crypto traders; we will have to stick to Binance, Coinbase, Pancake Swap, Uniswap, KuCoin, or the like. Have a look at the prerequisites, just needed to get the ball rolling on the approval process: https://edxmarkets.com/
The laundry list of forms and rules must mean there are stringent requirements on joining the exchange. Let's just say it ain't exactly a decentralized one!!
Anyway, you can parse through the documents yourself on the EDX website and draw your own conclusions. It's pretty clear that extreme measure are being taken here to make for a "safe and secure" exchange. I thought that's what Binance and Coinbase were for individual traders? Anyway, I will be very curious to see if EDX comes under fire from SEC Chair Gary Gensler who has been on a bit of a lawsuit rampage recently, as we are well aware of! Perhaps not, as there's a litany of documents to submit before becoming "approved" for the exchange? The rules aren't exactly clear at this point! https://edxmarkets.com/join-edx/
More on EDX: they have a multitude of institutional investors including Charles Schwab, Citadel, Fidelity, Sequoia Capital, and many others.
Currently, there are four cryptocurrencies available for trade on EDX Markets:
Bitcoin
Ethereum
Litecoin
Bitcoin Cash
I was honestly pretty shocked to see BCH on that list. After all, what's the daily trading volume on that nowadays? I guess it's garnering interest outside of BCH Game, read.cash, and Bitcoin Cash Giveaway! But seriously, Bitcoin Cash really seemed to have been left for dead there for a minute.
My final point on this new EDX exchange is that in their press release today, the cryptocurrencies mentioned are not once referred to as "tokens" or "crypto" but "products traded on EDX." Paying very close attention to language used! That's all for now, good evening.
Bitcoin Alien's "Litecoin Giveaway" & "Bitcoin Cash Giveaway" Apps Removed From Google Play
Every week, I earn anywhere from a nickel to quarter's worth of BCH and LTC from the Bitcoin Cash Giveaway and Litecoin Giveaway apps from the developer Bitcoin Aliens. I was surprised today to see that both apps were gone from my phone, as well as the Google Play store. It was quite strange; they both seemed to have completely fallen off the face of the digital Earth.
I contacted Bitcoin Aliens to see what was going on. Here is the response they gave me:
*Our apps contain an implementation of the OkSpin Game Space which is being incorrectly identified as potential malware or spyware. As a precautionary measure the game space has been paused for all our users and is no longer available in our apps. And we hope to work with Google on an appeal to reinstate the apps on Google Play as soon as possible.*
They went on to assure me that either anti-virus or Play Protect was likely responsible for automatically uninstalling the apps. All payouts will still be processed every Tuesday, so long as you are above the payment threshold. If I recall correctly, for Bitcoin Cash it is 50,000 satoshis and 100,000 litoshis for Litecoin. The payouts will continue, even if either app isn't installed on your device.
For the statement from OkSpin, visit https://okspin.tech/blog/post47.html and https://okspin.tech/blog/post48.html for a more techinical overview on how they handle data.
So, hopefully the Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin Giveaway apps return soon. They are good sources of "crypto dust" and are legit in their payouts. Until now, if you try to access its app store page, you will be met with the following:
If you have already downloaded and installed the apps, they can be retrieved by unblocking them through Play Protect and they will still function as normal.
Origin Materials Tuesday Tidbits, 5/30/23
**Agrawal to Present at 2023 Process Development Symposium**
The AlChE's annual symposium will take place on June 13-15, 2023 in Vancouver, Canada. "The symposium is an opportunity for process development professionals from all over the world to discuss their experiences with novel and innovative technologies to trigger radical changes in next-generation processes development and operations." Gaurav Agrawal, who is a Process Development and Scale-up Lead at Origin Materials, will be presenting as part of the "Innovative Solutions for Designing Sustainable Processes" session on Wednesday, June 14 at 1:15pm. https://www.aiche.org/
Mr. Agrawal spent eight years at ExxonMobil, most recently as a Research Associate where he "led development, field demonstration and scale-up of a membrane technology and commercialized it for aromatics and non-aromatics separation." He received a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from Georgia Tech.
**Ledbetter Shares Promotion**
Another ramblin' wreck from Georgia Tech (and a hell of an engineer), Benson Ledbetter, announced today via LinkedIn that he is starting a new position with Origin Materials. He has graduated from Process Design Manager to Process Engineering Director.
**Bissell To Be Honored with Distinguished Engineering Alumni Medal**
UC-Davis announced today a list of eight alumni who will be recipients of the 2023 Distinguished Engineering Alumni Medal, the highest honor presented by the college to alumni. Atop the list is none other than the Chemperor himself, Origin Materials co-founder and co-CEO John Bissell. https://engineering.ucdavis.edu/news/announcing-our-2023-distinguished-engineering-alumni-medalists
"DEAM recipients will be recognized at the college’s Alumni Celebration, which will take place at the Walter A. Buehler Alumni Center at UC Davis on Thursday, November 2."
The complete list of recipients is as follows:
**John A. Bissell**
B.S. '08, Chemical Engineering | Co-Founder & Co-CEO, Origin Materials
**Andrew J. Botka**
B.S. '87, Electrical Engineering | VP of Strategic Planning, Keysight Technologies
**Robert D. Caligiuri**
B.S. '73, Materials Science and Mechanical Engineering | Corporate VP & Principal Engineer, Exponent, Inc.
**Michael P. Coffey**
B.S. '84, Electrical Engineering | Senior VP of Mass Markets Product Management, AT&T
**Kerry A. Kinney**
B.S. '88, Chemical Engineering; M.S. '93, Ph.D. '96, Civil and Environmental Engineering | Professor, The University of Texas at Austin
**Terry C. Lowe**
B.S. '78, Materials Science and Mechanical Engineering | Research Professor, Colorado School of Mines
**Richard R. Neptune**
B.S. '91, M.S. '93, Ph.D. '96, Mechanical Engineering | Professor, The University of Texas at Austin
**JoAnn Silverstein**
B.S. '77, M.S. '80, Ph.D. '82, Civil Engineering | Professor Emerita, University of Colorado, Boulder
**Tick-Tock, When Start-Up?**
As the second quarter winds down with the month of June, investors and watchers are left wondering when the Origin 1 facility in Sarnia, Ontario will start-up. Officially, per the company's timeline, it is expected by the end of June. Exactly when is anybody's guess. Bissell has been surprisingly responsive via Twitter to investor queries on the matter:
Speculate and examinate until you're blue in the face, but you got to appreciate the replies at the very least. That's it for tonight, good evening.
****The**** ****original Bitcoin faucet**** ****is long gone, but there are still ways to collect some free crypto:**** https://web.archive.org/web/20100703032414/http://freebitcoins.appspot.com/
**Sign up on** **Publish0x****, if you haven't already, to earn free crypto for reading & writing content** https://www.publish0x.com/?a=9wdL8l1pdj
**Join** **Cointiply** **and roll the faucet every hour, view PTC ads, take surveys to earn free Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, or Dash** http://cointiply.com/r/ND51K8
**Downoad the** **Bitcoin Cash Giveaway** **to collect some free BCH sats, paid out weekly** https://bitcoinaliens.com/?ref=5501789&game=7&pf=2
**Check out** **Yescoiner** **to easily collect some satoshis; no nonsense -- just solve a captcha. Low payout, slow drip here** https://yescoiner.com/?ref=2741950
**Final AutoClaim** **is another facuet-style site that offers payouts in 74 different coins** https://autofaucet.dutchycorp.space/?r=aaronkelly1024
**For an entertaining, off-the-wall faucet, check out** **Crypto Junkie****. Great for accumulating SPACE and SHIB** https://cryptojunkie.net/?r=67584
**Play** **Gemly****, a P2E game, and earn payouts in BTC, Litecoin, BNB, Tether, Tron, and Dogecoin.** https://gemly.link/?r=15955
**For rewards in XNO and BTC, check out** **TipNano app** https://tipnano.org/ref/o8TUNu
Resources
https://aiche.confex.com/aiche/pds23/meetingapp.cgi/Session/52690
https://engineering.ucdavis.edu/news/announcing-our-2023-distinguished-engineering-alumni-medalists
Gemly Update, 87 Days After Launch
It has been almost a full three months, 87 days to be exact, since the play-to-earn game Gemly launched. I have been participating in the game myself, albeit it very passively and in my signature "cheapskate" fashion -- I will play to earn but refuse to actually deposit any of my own money onto the platform. So far, over 200k players have signed up for Gemly. Over half a million dollars have been deposited, with over $100k paid out. https://gemly.link/?r=15955
So it appears there is some pretty significant strength and support behind this P2E title. An Android APK is now available for download, with an application on the Google Play and Apple stores in the works. It seems there are many more updates to come, with just one month left in spring. Here's what the Gemly developers have listed on the site:
I'm most interested in seeing what rare gifts and prizes will be up for grabs. As far as the affiliate update, that should be interesting too. It seems like it's a pretty good and efficient program so far. The referrals are definitely a good way to collect gems. I've done decent so far. Remember that 1M gems is about $1, so don't get too excited.
Finally, a major "summer roadmap" is coming on June 1, 2023. There will be announcements on future updates and further developments. So that's where it's at, with regards to Gemly. The P2E game is still chugging along. It seems like to get the most out of it, including making the daily leaderboard, you definitely need to deposit some money in order to recruit the best mercenaries. But, me being me on my personal free crypto journey, I refuse to do such. I will continue to truck along, even if it means stacking gems at a snail's pace.
Related Posts:
Gemly - Recently Launched P2E Game https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/gemly-recently-launched-p2e-game-xqezgwe
Gemly - Proof of Payment (Tron) https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/gemly-proof-of-payment-tron-xpzkxej
****The**** ****original Bitcoin faucet**** ****is long gone, but there are still ways to collect some free crypto:**** https://web.archive.org/web/20100703032414/http://freebitcoins.appspot.com/
**Sign up on** **Publish0x****, if you haven't already, to earn free crypto for reading & writing content** https://www.publish0x.com/?a=9wdL8l1pdj
**Join** **Cointiply** **and roll the faucet every hour, view PTC ads, take surveys to earn free Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, or Dash** http://cointiply.com/r/ND51K8
**Downoad the** **Bitcoin Cash Giveaway** **to collect some free BCH sats, paid out weekly** https://bitcoinaliens.com/?ref=5501789&game=7&pf=2
**Check out** **Yescoiner** **to easily collect some satoshis; no nonsense -- just solve a captcha. Low payout, slow drip here** https://yescoiner.com/?ref=2741950
**Final AutoClaim** **is another facuet-style site that offers payouts in 74 different coins** https://autofaucet.dutchycorp.space/?r=aaronkelly1024
**For an entertaining, off-the-wall faucet, check out** **Crypto Junkie****. Great for accumulating SPACE and SHIB** https://cryptojunkie.net/?r=67584
**Play** **Gemly****, a P2E game, and earn payouts in BTC, Litecoin, BNB, Tether, Tron, and Dogecoin.** https://gemly.link/?r=15955
**For rewards in XNO and BTC, check out** **TipNano app****.** https://tipnano.org/ref/o8TUNu
Timber: So Long PEPE, We Hardly Knew Ye
Having lost 26% of its value in the past 24 hours, PEPE is quickly losing steam. The recent memecoin sensation recently hit a $1 billion total market capitalization and is now sitting at a value of $742 million. Personally, I've yet to take the plunge into $PEPE and will probably continue to sit on the sidelines. It seems to me that the so-called frog coin is going the way Dogecoin went when Elon Musk appeared on Saturday Night Live in 2021.
Here we have the 1-month chart for PEPE:
And a view of DOGE from its epic run-up to subsequently epic collapse:
When you look at it that way, it makes for one sad frog.
Let's examine the "Pepe Roadmap" and see where things may be headed. At least, let's look at what the developers have laid out and think logically:
Phase One: Listing on CoinMarketCap **DONE**
Phase Two: Getting $PEPE trending on Twitter **DONE**
Phase Three: Getting listed on "Tier 1" exchanges
So, basically the entire bull case behind PEPE is getting it trending and gaining popularity. In my opinion, there is no real utility or use-case other than how popular the memecoin can get. So, with this in mind, let's have a look at the interest in it via Google Trends search.
Much like the token price chart, the interest chart is declining. If you gotta meme, you gotta meme. But, at this point, it seems like the joke's over.
Examining Origin Materials Q1 2023 LD-2 Disclosure Form
A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece on Origin Materials lobbying efforts -- what they have done thus far and what they appear to be working toward. Today, an LD-2 Disclosure Form was made available to the public which details the most recent quarter's activity. The first number that stuck out to me was that the company spent $170k on lobbying activities in Q1 2023. That's a 750% increase from Q1 2022, when $20k was spent on lobbying activities. For the entirety of 2022, Origin Materials dished out $210k on lobbying. https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/origin-materials-lobbying-for-a-future-with-sustainable-mate-xwypwjr https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/b35b8b48-46e7-4fbd-82b0-abd0c1d7d094/print/
Now, onto specifics. A total of seven specific issues are listed on the LD-2. I will go through each one, item by item, with any relevant information and possible speculation on what specifically the company may be pursuing.
****1-3. Implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (P.L. 117-58)****
****Issues regarding the use of biomass in chemicals plastics and fuel****
****Issue Area Codes CHM (Chemicals/Chemical Industry) & FUE (Fuel/Gas/Oil) & ENV (Environmental)****
These are tough to speculate on, being as the IRA is 1039 pages long and lists several sources of funding for "bioproducts." They may fit the bill for several of these, including:
Biochar is a black residue, made of carbon and ashes, that some speculate may be key for soil rejuvenation and carbon sequesterization. It is formed by the pyrolysis of biomass, in the absence of oxygen. This may be related to what Origin Materials has in the pipeline, as far as development of their HTC.
The Eastern Regional Research Center even mentions that "pyrolysis is one of the technologies available to convert biomass to an intermediate liquid product that can be refined to drop-in hydrocarbon biofuels, oxygenated fuel additives and petrochemical replacements." It's possible that Origin's recently announced "oils and extractives" may be related to this too.
Who's to say the National Forest System won't be an Origin partner in the future?
****4-5. Issues related to IRC Section 48C tax credit - TAX (Taxes) & ENG (Energy)****
This item seems pretty straightforward and easy to understand. On February 3, 2023, the IRS released initial guidance on Advanced Energy Project Credit Allocation Program. As stated in the notice, "The goal of the § 48C(e) program is to expand U.S. manufacturing capacity and quality jobs
for clean energy technologies (including production and recycling), to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. industrial sector, and to secure domestic supply chains for critical materials (including specified critical minerals) that serve as inputs for clean energy technology production."
A credit of up to 30% on capital costs may be available, if the company is approved. The competition for the $10 billion allocation is expected to be extremely fierce, as one may expect. The application process begins on May 31, 2023 and concept papers are due by July 31, 2023.
Origin Materials certainly seems to fit the bill to qualify, with potentially more than one product:
****6. Farm Bill Re-Authorization****
I am really not too sure what to make *specifically* of the Farm Bill and its relevance to Origin Materials. Obviously, the company has mentioned cotton trash, bagasse, rice hulls, and whole cane as abundant bio-feedstocks to be used in the process. So, it would be in the best interest of the company going forward to ensure that the country's legislation guiding national agriculture, nutrition, conservation, and forestry policy be in line. https://www.agriculture.senate.gov/farm-bill
Again, specifically what Origin Materials is lobbying for with regards to the Farm Bill is unclear to me. The Farm Bill is passed by Congress every five years, and the current legislation is set to expire on September 30, 2023.
****7. Novel biopolymers scale-up defense-wide manufacturing science and technology program****
With the general issue area code "BUD" listed on this item, it is referring to budget/appropriations. What we appear to have here is the company pursing a portion of $747M in funding allocated to the Defense-Wide Manufacturing Science and Technology Program, under the Department of Defense. Thanks to the Justification Book, I was able to identify what the company is pursuing here. https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2024/budget_justification/pdfs/03_RDT_and_E/OSD_PB2024.pdf
So it's quite clear that Origin Materials' lobbying efforts have been kicked into high gear. It's no secret that the company has been pursing these avenues. It has been part of the growth plan all along. The fact that the lobbying spend is increasing is a good sign, a signal that steps are being taken in the right direction as the company pursues all available sources of funding.
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Resources
https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/b35b8b48-46e7-4fbd-82b0-abd0c1d7d094/print/
https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/clients/summary
https://www.legistorm.com/organization/summary/176699/Origin_Materials_Inc_.html
https://www.congress.gov/117/plaws/publ58/PLAW-117publ58.pdf
https://investors.originmaterials.com/static-files/2e3ea2d8-75fe-4a83-af11-33d3bf1ae66d
https://www.ars.usda.gov/northeast-area/wyndmoor-pa/eastern-regional-research-center/docs/biomass-pyrolysis-research-1/what-is-pyrolysis/
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-23-18.pdf
https://www.grantthornton.com/insights/alerts/tax/2023/flash/irs-establishes-section-48c-advanced-energy-program
https://www.agriculture.senate.gov/farm-bill
https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2024/budget_justification/pdfs/03_RDT_and_E/OSD_PB2024.pdf
https://investors.originmaterials.com/node/8766/html
Origin Materials - Lobbying For a Future with Sustainable Materials
In the political environment of the United States, lobbying is an essential part for any business. For the chemical industry in particular, who may be seen in the general public eye as leading environmental offenders, lobbyists are crucial for the development of new products and ramped up production. The first disclosure of a limitation on CMF production in the United States was in a May 2021 prospectus filed with the SEC, prior to Origin Materials' reverse merger with the Artius Acquisition SPAC. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1802457/000119312521175497/d147960d424b3.htm
The same risk factor has appeared in subsequent filings, including the annual report for 2022. https://investors.originmaterials.com/static-files/037a44b0-6576-4f44-b9a6-6e0ef69e5afc
So, in addition to "filing notifications under TSCA and CEPA seeking to remove these restrictions," just what else has the company done? Before we get to specifics, let's have a look at how CEO John Bissell responded to the question when recently posted to him via Twitter:
Now, let's start to get to some specifics. OpenSecrets.org, which conveniently tracks lobbying spending for American companies, shows that Origin's spending on lobbying has increased 90.9% -- on a year over year basis, up to $210k in 2022 from $110k in 2021. https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/clients/summary?cycle=2022&id=D000084236
The average spending per chemical company in the US for 2022 was $515k, with the top three spenders on lobbying being:
American Chemistry Council - $19.76M
Dow, Inc. - $6.92M
LyondellBasell Industries - $3.42M
Speaking of the American Chemistry Council, recent Board of Director addition Craig Rogerson previously served on the board for the ACC.
So what has the company been lobbying for thus far? If you have a look at Propublica, every issue thus far is listed. They include: https://projects.propublica.org/represent/lobbying/r/301038797
Implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (P.L/ 117-58)
Implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (P.L. - 117-58)
Issues related to IRC Section 48C tax credit Implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (P.L. 117-58)
issues relating to IRC Section 48C tax credit Implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (P.L. - 117-58)
Issues regarding the use of biomass in chemicals, plastics and fuel Implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (P.L. - 117-58)
All referring to Public Law 117-58 aka ‘Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act'. Personally I have to imagine that the restriction/limitations on the production of CMF falls under the "issues regarding the use of biomass in chemicals, plastics and fuel" umbrella. https://www.congress.gov/117/plaws/publ58/PLAW-117publ58.pdf
Furthermore, lest we forget the following developments that are sure to sway regulators:
EPA Announces Winners of the 2022 Green Chemistry Challenge Awards https://www.epa.gov/chemicals-under-tsca/epa-announces-winners-2022-green-chemistry-challenge-awards
Origin Materials Earns USDA Certified Biobased Product Label for Additional Carbon Negative Materials https://investors.originmaterials.com/news-releases/news-release-details/origin-materials-earns-usda-certified-biobased-product-label-0
Who is behind Origin Materials' lobbying:
Corbin and Kaiser, Samson Advisors, and Capitol Advocacy are listed as lobbying firms Origin Materials is a client of in the State of California 2023-2024 lobbying directory. Note that PepsiCo, an Origin partner company, is a client of Capitol Advocacy. https://www.corbinandkaiser.com/ https://www.samsonadvisors.co/ https://www.capitoladvocacy.com/ https://prd.cdn.sos.ca.gov/Lobbying_Directory.pdf
Finally, it's worth re-iterating (as I've already written on this previously) that Origin Materials has joined the Louisiana Chemical Association. Specifically, with regards to lobbying, it is significant. Perhaps the LCA's description from their website is the best explanation as to why this matters for Origin: https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/origin-materials-joins-louisiana-chemical-association-xwyexox https://lca.org/aws/LCA/pt/sp/LCA_about
*The Louisiana chemical industry is the cornerstone of the state’s economy and is an essential part of Louisiana’s future. The Louisiana Chemical Association (LCA) was formed in 1959 to promote a positive business climate for chemical manufacturing that ensures long-term economic growth for its 63 member companies that operate more than 100 sites throughout Louisiana. LCA, Louisiana Chemical Industry Alliance and related organizations work to protect and expand Louisiana’s petrochemical manufacturing base. It is critical for the industry to have a unified voice in state governmental activities because legislative and regulatory actions can affect capital investment and job retention and growth. LCA is governed by a Board of Directors that consists of 17 member company representatives, primarily plant managers and divisional vice presidents. LCA has an experienced staff with expertise in the chemical industry, environmental, health, safety, security, governmental affairs, communications and association management.*
In summation, when Bissell says "we're quite comfortable with how that's all progressed," he's clearly not just blowing smoke.
Bitcoin Propels Above 30k; What Does the 1-Year Chart Say?
It was back in February that I did my last post with a chart of Bitcoin. Back then, I had written that it appeared to be approaching a golden cross and the price action was neutral. I'm certainly not a prognosticator, and it's easy to look back and say "I told you so." Although it was a bit delayed, that golden cross did indeed play out: https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/bitcoin-price-action-is-now-neutral-could-be-approaching-gol-xxzpnwd
The golden cross is a technical indicator, which usually precedes a bullish move. The cross is when the 50-day moving average (orange line) crosses above the 200-day moving average (blue line). I am watching closely, as the 1-year chart is very close to turning overall bullish. The next level I'm watching is the $32,297 price which has not been seen since June 2022. For now, I view that as the next resistance to break through, then $35k and $30,000 acting as short-term support.
I am also watching the relative strength index (RSI), which is just peaking into overbought territory. What this tells me is that the price will likely dip below $30k again in the coming weeks.
I should note again, as I did above, that I am not a price predictor. I just look at the chart and try to make an educated guess, based on indicators, as to where the price action may be going. As the current price is above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, I still view the short-term trend as very bullish. If we end up seeing a break of $40k over the summer, all-time highs would be very much in the cards for the latter part of 2023.
Evidently, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz thinks a similar situation will play out if the US Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates this year. "If rates keep falling, then Bitcoin will be in the gold zone and could reach $40,000," he said.
Has the bear market on Bitcoin ended? It is too soon to say, when looking at the all-time chart. Another re-test of $20k is certainly not out of the question, but it is safe to say that 2023 has been very kind to the price of the first and largest cryptocurrency. As for me personally, I am HODLing no matter what happens.
Finally got my Bitcoin sticker I had ordered. Very surprised with the extras. First time paying for goods with BTC.
https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/first-p2p-transaction-bitcoin-for-stickers-xgjrxop
First P2P Transaction: Bitcoin for Stickers
Lest we forget, Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer version of electronic cash. If that phrase sounds familiar to you, it is directly from the Bitcoin white paper. And that's exactly what it is: money. As far as transacting goes, my experience with that has been very limited. I've only ever sent sats to a friends, or once as a tip to a tow truck driver when my billfold was barren. I've written about how you can buy a sandwich with crypto, although I've never actually done it myself. That reminds me, I have to test that out (sounds like a job for Bitcoin Cash). https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/yes-you-can-buy-a-sandwich-with-crypto-xozwdey
But anyways, back in January, I purchased a Bitcoin sticker from the artist known as Bitko Yinowsky as another trial of sorts to experience an exchange of goods for sats. Here is the outgoing transfer. The total for the one sticker and shipping was $6.00 I think -- 35,944 sats at the time. https://bitko.cc/
Now let's fast forward three months. Obviously, there was a delay. I had almost completely forgotten about the order, to tell you the truth. The one time it did pop into my mind, I had just written it off as a loss and figured it was a farce. Well, let me be the first to tell you that ole' Bitko delivered...and then some!
I am very grateful for the extra product, and those stickers are awesome! The miner bee is by far my favourite here! While I've yet to decide where I will put these, I am still in admiration of the designs and very pleased with the transaction overall, despite the delay. The stickers are legit and his 100% Bitcoin only shop also has some cool hats, buttons, and t-shirts. https://bitko.cc/product-category/accessories/
So, in summation, just wanted to give a shoutout to Bitko Yinowsky for making my first P2P transaction on the Bitcoin Network an awesome first experience of exchanging sats for goods. Quality merchandise! So that's cool: Bitcoin for stickers.
Origin Materials: Saturday Night Update, 4/8/23
*Nothing about the following blog post constitutes financial advice. It is being shared for informational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, just a rocket enthusiast. Always perform your own due diligence and carefully consider risks before investing.*
It has been a few weeks since I've published anything on Origin Materials. The stock has continued to fall since my last post on the company, but the developments have not stopped. As far as official company updates, please refer to the following:
Origin Materials and Hyosung Partner to Produce Batteries, Automotive Parts, and Apparel from Carbon-Negative Materials https://investors.originmaterials.com/news-releases/news-release-details/origin-materials-and-hyosung-partner-produce-batteries
Origin Materials’ Sustainable Carbon Black Blends Meet or Exceed Fossil-Based N660 Performance for Tires and Mechanical Rubber Goods https://investors.originmaterials.com/news-releases/news-release-details/origin-materials-sustainable-carbon-black-blends-meet-or-exceed
Origin Materials Announces Two New Appointments to Board of Directors https://investors.originmaterials.com/news-releases/news-release-details/origin-materials-announces-two-new-appointments-board-directors
Origin Materials Co-Founder and Co-CEO to Participate in Credit Suisse Carbon Negative Conference 3.0 https://investors.originmaterials.com/news-releases/news-release-details/origin-materials-co-founder-and-co-ceo-participate-credit-suisse
As usual, in addition to the official company updates, I scour the interwebs for additional information related to the company. Here are those recent tidbits I've stumbled upon, or have been shared with me by other investors.
**John Bissell Takes Twitter Engagement Up a Notch**
CEO John Bissell has been very active on Twitter over the past few days, actively engaging with those who have been asking him questions on the platform. Of the increased responses, he said:
*When I have time I’ll keep doing it. Happened to have a week solid in Sacramento for just about the first time this year, so I’m a little more capable of engaging. Can’t promise I’ll keep it up, but I’ll try!*
In order to keep things simple and organized, I have arranged the Twitter questions posed to Bissell and his responses by subject:
Origin's potential use of AI for product development https://twitter.com/Alt/status/1644766345316139015?s=20
On the mineral content of wood biomass feedstock https://twitter.com/LostInThe____/status/1644743029075451904?s=20
On the recyclability of products made from CMF and HTC https://twitter.com/haditaheri/status/1643790528016969736
On ROIC projections, updated economics, and a future OM2 update https://twitter.com/bysl/status/1644229177061830657?s=20
And the now infamous "hold onto your butts" Tweet:
The "dual train" reference is in regards to the additional revenue potential should the Origin 2 facility and beyond be dual train. Think double production capacity.
**O1 Construction Anecdotes on the Sarnia Subreddit**
Take these with a grain of salt, but several Redditors have posted on r/Sarnia about the construction of the Origin 1 facility. The juiciest replies are featured in this snazzy collage:
**Origin Materials Highlighted on White House's IIA Fact Sheet for Louisiana**
Origin Materials is developing a $750 million sustainable materials manufacturing facility in Ascension Parish, producing innovative plant-based plastics used in packaging, textiles, garments, and other products.
**Shane O'Toole Speaks at NC State's Sustainability in Textiles Event**
Senior Manager of Product Development Shane O'Toole spoke at his alma mater this past week, representing Origin Materials. It was more of a "shop talk" discussion, but he stated that the company should start producing some intermediaries soon, as they are very busy with partners and a ton of demand. The process improvements at Origin 1 create a situation where the O2 facility can be successful with or without carbon credits.
The full video replay of the event is here:
https://player.vimeo.com/video/815444000?title=0&byline=0
**Hiring Pace Continues to Be Slowed**
As I have previously written on, the pace of hiring at the company has slowed down for the time being. While the company maintains three active job listings on their LinkedIn, the total headcount (again, according to LinkedIn so it's an unofficial number) remains at 193. This is flat from the last time I checked it about a month ago.
All of their jobs listings have plenty of applicants: over 200 for the Logistics Manager, 49 for the Product Stewardship Specialist, and 13 for the Analytical Scientist position.
**Spoiler Alert - So Hot Right Now**
**Stock - Not So Hot Right Now**
The stock could definitely use a "hold onto your butts" catalyst any day now, as it site just above its most recently set all-time low. The most recent close of $3.89 is well below both 200 and 50 day moving averages.
Trust Wallet - Known Issues with Nano (XNO)
I would like to first start off by saying that I have been using Trust Wallet to receive the minuscule amount of nautrinos earned from the TipNano app. I have made probably half a dozen withdrawals with no issues. Instant, feeless transfers that appeared in the wallet right away. The other night, I noticed a discussion in the TipNano app chatroom where users were discussing which wallet they used. I was surprised to see that there was a lot of people against using Trust Wallet, and I didn't quite understand why. As chance would have it, the most recent withdrawal I did has made me understand why Trust Wallet is not the best for Nano transactions.
It has been stuck pending for the past week, not yet confirmed in my wallet:
Really it's not a big deal for me, as I just use the wallet to collect the "crypto dust," small amounts earned from various apps and websites.
Everything is all right on the sending end, and this is definitely an issue with Trust Wallet. It's not the first time it's happened either. Evidently, it is an ongoing issue with receiving Nano in Trust Wallet. Several users have reported XNO being stuck as "pending" in the multi-coin wallet (which may be part of the problem):
The solution is simple, really: don't use Trust Wallet to receive Nano. Nano Hub recommends the following non-custodial wallets:
Natrium
WeNano
Nanobyte
NOW Wallet
Nautilus
Nault
As for me, I'll just have to wait out the "pending" transaction. As I've stated, it's such a small amount that I'm really not stressed about it at all. I use Trust Wallet mostly to experiment with different cryptos. I've noticed that Trust is really best for ERC-20 tokens, those based on the Ethereum blockchain. Going forward, I plan to switch wallets for Nano.
Crypto Scam E-mail Annotated
Another one spotted! This scam e-mail actually doesn't contain any text. It is one attachment, an image. A real high-quality one, at that! Obviously, that's the first red flag right there.
Upon receiving an e-mail like this, it's suppose to set off alarm bells to the victim and make them think there is unauthorized activity on their PayPal account. They are then directed to call the phone number contained in the message (no, that's not PayPal's phone number). Once the scammers get the victim on the phone, they will then ask for details like login information and acquire said information from the victim to steal funds. Don't fall for it!
I knew right away it was a scam, but this is how my mind analyzes such an e-mail:
Stay safe, stay aware! No company will **ever** ask for your personal login information, no matter what. Most important moral of the story: Google does **not** sell Bitcoin!!! Although, apparently you can use Google Pay to buy Bitcoin via Cex.io
Three Examples of Repurposed Heat From Bitcoin Miners
I will never forget my brief time running Bitcoin, back in 2010-2011. Believe it or not, you could turn your laptop into a mining node with just a few programs. Sure, it would render my Macbook useless for doing anything else, eventually destroy the cooling fans, and heat up to temperatures only achieved by a microwave running on high power for five minutes. When I began to think about it though, the possible ways to divert heat from a Bitcoin mining node and use it for another purpose are quite vast. I even joked once to some friends, when meme stocks were all the rage a few years ago, that AMC Theatres could run nodes and use the excess heat to cook popcorn at the snack bars.
All kidding aside, here are three actual ways that heat from Bitcoin miners is being repurposed:
**1. Space Heaters**
It seems to be the most obvious use case. And it's simple and sensible. Bitcoin miners produce excess heat, so why not use it to heat a cold environment? In particular, the Heatbit heater makes it possible. For $1199, you can "make money while quietly heating your room." They come in three sleek flavors: https://www.heatbit.com/
Stay warm through the crypto winter! The Heatbit miners use 168 ASIC chips, providing up to 14 TH/s mining power, and boast being "quieter than your fridge." They warm up to 500 square feet. The miners are connected to the Nicehash mining pool.
**2. Whisky Making**
MintGreen, a technology company based in Canada, specializes in heat recovery from Bitcoin mining. One of their projects is a partnership with Shelter Point Distillery, where they have designed a Bitcoin mining vessel called the Tumbler to help in the whisky barrel aging process.
**3. Growing Greenhouse Vegetables**
Genesis Digital Assets has partnered with renowned Swedish institutes, to buildout a vegetable growing greenhouse -- a greenhouse data center. The heat generated from a 600 kW container housing Bitcoin mining rigs is diverted to the greenhouse, where various different plants are being tested to see what will grow best.
These all sound pretty neat and practical. Taking it even a step farther, someone even built a hot tub that was heated from Bitcoin miners. Clearly, when it comes to repurposing heat, creativity is the name of the game. It seems that the sky is the limit, and innovation and ingenuity will continue to create new use cases.
Hal Finney, Recipient of First Bitcoin Transaction
Hal Finney was a computer scientist and software developer by trade. He was educated at the California Institute of Technology and graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in engineering in 1979. After graduating, he went on to develop half a dozen games for home video game consoles:
Star Strike (Intellivision, 1981)
Astro Smash (Atari 2600, 1982)
Space Battle (Atari 2600, 1982)
Armor Battle (Atari 2600, 1982)
Night Stalker (Atari 2600, 1982)
Adventures of Tron (Atari 2600, 1983)
He was a cypherpunk, one who believes in and advocates for the use of cryptography and privacy-enhancing technology as a means for social and political change. As such, Finney he became interested in cryptocurrencies in 2009, when he was working for PGP Corporation. Allow him to tell you about it, in his own words:
*I got my start in crypto working on an early version of PGP, working closely with Phil Zimmermann. When Phil decided to start PGP Corporation, I was one of the first hires. I would work on PGP until my retirement. At the same time, I got involved with the Cypherpunks. I ran the first cryptographically based anonymous remailer, among other activities.*
*Fast forward to late 2008 and the announcement of Bitcoin. I've noticed that cryptographic graybeards (I was in my mid 50's) tend to get cynical. I was more idealistic; I have always loved crypto, the mystery and the paradox of it.*
*When Satoshi announced Bitcoin on the cryptography mailing list, he got a skeptical reception at best. Cryptographers have seen too many grand schemes by clueless noobs. They tend to have a knee jerk reaction.*
*I was more positive. I had long been interested in cryptographic payment schemes. Plus I was lucky enough to meet and extensively correspond with both Wei Dai and Nick Szabo, generally acknowledged to have created ideas that would be realized with Bitcoin. I had made an attempt to create my own proof of work based currency, called RPOW. So I found Bitcoin facinating.*
*When Satoshi announced the first release of the software, I grabbed it right away. I think I was the first person besides Satoshi to run bitcoin. I mined block 70-something, and I was the recipient of the first bitcoin transaction, when Satoshi sent ten coins to me as a test. I carried on an email conversation with Satoshi over the next few days, mostly me reporting bugs and him fixing them.*
This led to the now famous Tweet, which was simple yet extremely historic:
And just two days later, the very first peer-to-peer Bitcoin transaction:
It's pretty amazing to think that a mere test transaction would eventually come to be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. You probably couldn't guess Hal's price prediction for BTC back in 2009. Or perhaps you've heard it before. Again, let's allow his words to do the talking:
Myself, I'm in awe every time I read these messages. He went on to become perhaps one of the most famous individual Bitcoin miners in the early days of the cryptocurrency.
Finney even thought ahead, regarding taxes. As he wrote in a 2013 post on Bitcointalk.org:
*I intend to treat bitcoins as precious metals and declare my profits as capital gains. Since I mined them more than a year earlier, they are long term capital gains. This is not as favorable as usual because it turns out that precious metals, even bullion, are considered "collectables" and taxed at a rate of 28%. Normal rate is 15%. If your overall tax rate is less than 28%, you can pay the lower rate. That is what I intend to do, based on my reading of the IRS documents.*
In 2009, Finney was diagnosed with ALS. Again, I feel it both appropriate and fitting to let his words tell the story:
*My body began to fail. I slurred my speech, lost strength in my hands, and my legs were slow to recover. In August, 2009, I was given the diagnosis of ALS, also called Lou Gehrig's disease, after the famous baseball player who got it.*
*ALS is a disease that kills moter neurons, which carry signals from the brain to the muscles. It causes first weakness, then gradually increasing paralysis. It is usually fatal in 2 to 5 years. My symptoms were mild at first and I continued to work, but fatigue and voice problems forced me to retire in early 2011. Since then the disease has continued its inexorable progression.*
*Today, I am essentially paralyzed. I am fed through a tube, and my breathing is assisted through another tube. I operate the computer using a commercial eyetracker system. It also has a speech synthesizer, so this is my voice now. I spend all day in my power wheelchair. I worked up an interface using an arduino so that I can adjust my wheelchair's position using my eyes.*
*It has been an adjustment, but my life is not too bad. I can still read, listen to music, and watch TV and movies. I recently discovered that I can even write code. It's very slow, probably 50 times slower than I was before. But I still love programming and it gives me goals.*
Finney passed away on August 28, 2014 in Phoenix, Arizona and his body is preserved at the Alcor Life Extension Foundation. Hal is currently in long-term storage, being stored at -196 degrees C, where he's being cared for until the day that revival may be possible. His cryopreservation was paid for through a combination of life insurance and bitcoins. His wife, Fran, also has plans for herself with Alcor.
Beware of the Obvious Crypto Scam
As far as earning free crypto goes, I'm all for it and exploring each and every available avenue. I've made many posts on here about different platforms I've tried and some I use regularly. I would like to take this post and point out on obvious crypto scam. It was discovered on a PTC ad displayed on the Cointiply app: http://cointiply.com/r/ND51K8
So it goes something like this, and it's a very common scam: "deposit your crypto with us and we'll double it!"
What ends up actually happening is that you send your crypto to the scammers, who have absolutely no intention of returning it. And they don't. You just sent coins to someone, under the false pretense that you will be sent them back and then some. There is absolutely no reason anyone will ever "double your crypto." They use urgency, as depicted above as "you have 1 hour to double your deposit," to entice the unsuspecting hodler looking to increase their stack. I implore you: don't fall for it.
If you see scams like this, report them. What's ironic about this one is that it uses Cointiply in the scam to seem more legitimate. Please know that Cointiply has no such program to double deposits. It is 100% a scam. Once the funds are sent to the con artists, they are gone. As you well know, Bitcoin transactions are irreversible and there is no way to recover the sats once sent to the scammers.
Bitcoin Cash Transactions Resume on Trust Wallet
You may have not even noticed it, as Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is not exactly the most widely used cryptocurrency, but for the past week or so Trust Wallet has been unable to process BCH transactions. If you had tried to execute any in that time, they were frozen. An red message appeared in BCH wallets in Trust, stating that the BCH node was being upgraded and that there may be issues with pending transactions.
Users at the Trust Wallet Community posted about the issue:
https://community.trustwallet.com/t/missing-tx-blob-code-400/724504
https://community.trustwallet.com/t/bitcoincash-transaction-issue/724502/8
Anyway, it appears the engineers have successfully fixed the issue and the update to version 26.0.0 has been successful, with Trust Wallet is now processing BCH transactions with no issues. I have personally verified that everything's in working order, with my weekly mega-payout from the Bitcoin Cash Giveaway app (it was a total of about 15 cents).
It seems to me that Bitcoin Cash remains a "quiet crypto;" no one really talks about it much because it's not flashy or grabbing news headlines. The simple fact is that BCH works though, with much lower transaction fees and faster transactions than the original Bitcoin. Be that as it may, trading volume remains low and its popularity wanes.
So, what's been happening in the BCH world? The first recent development comes from a Reddit post:
And finally, a coffee shop in Taiwan adopting BCH for payments --
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YELTkWKl0F4
https://www.youtube.com/embed/YELTkWKl0F4
How Koinly is Navigating the Crypto Winter
With all the talk of a worldwide economic downtrend, slowing global GDP, and a crypto bear market, it seems like a stretch that one particular crypto company is expanding, after executing one round of layoffs. Indeed, it's against the trend to hear about a crypto company hiring when all others are laying off employees. While Coinbase is laying off 20% of its workforce, crypto tax accounting firm Koinly is seeking to grow back their headcount 13% as they are currently looking to fill six positions. https://careers.koinly.io/jobs
These job openings are surprising to see, especially after the company cut over 100 employees and contractors late last year. Many were quite upset at the way the initial layoffs were handled, stating they were unprofessional in nature. Some simultaneously discovered they had been laid off and found access to their Slack accounts denied. Despite these layoffs that came in the wake of FTX's collapse, Koinly is still currently looking to add six remote positions including software engineers and product managers.
Koinly offers cryptocurrency tax solutions for investors and traders. Its platform integrates with Coinbase, Binance, Bittrex, and CEX.io to make crypto reporting easier. You can also connect public wallet addresses to Koinly in order to figure out any capital gains owed. In case you were wondering and are located in the United States, yes you do need to pay taxes on any crypto gains.
What's great about Koinly is they offer a never-ending free trial to input all of your trades. Ultimately, you will need to purchase a plan in order to download the final tax report.
There are many similar competitors that offer crypto tax accounting services:
TaxBit https://taxbit.com/
CoinLedger https://coinledger.io/
ZenLedger https://www.zenledger.io/
TokenTax https://tokentax.co/
CoinTracker https://www.cointracker.io/
Koinly is based in London, England and was founded in 2018. Their estimated annual revenue is $13 million. The company was founded by Robin Singh, who serves as the CEO. Its offices in London are set to close in 2023, with the company re-locating its headquarters to Sydney, Australia.
Let's Separate the Crypto Industry From the Tokens Themselves
The idea for this post originated from a message I saw posted Stocktwits. It was something along the lines of "Coinbase is laying off more employees; this is it for Bitcoin." The post was accompanied with the BEARISH stamp, with $BTC tagged. It's true, Coinbase is indeed letting go of about 950 employees, or 20% of its workforce. But I don't believe, for one second, that the decline in success of crypto industry companies translates to the decline of the price of tokens themselves. Let me explain.
I view the "crypto industry" as the hundreds (if not thousands) of companies that generate revenue indirectly from cryptocurrencies.
This includes exchanges, who profit from spreads on crypto trading, transaction fees for crypto trading. Companies like:
Coinbase
Crypto.com
Gemini
BitMart Exchange
Kraken
eToro
Crypto mining companies generate revenue from the mining of cryptocurrencies:
Canaan Inc.
Hut 8 Mining Corp.
HIVE Blockchain Technologies
Marathon Digital Holdings
Riot Blockchain
Crypto ATM operators make money from transaction fees:
Bitcoin Depot
Coin Cloud
CoinFlip
Bitcoin of America
There has been a lot of negative news on these companies lately. A big risk these companies take on is holding actual crypto tokens on their balance sheets. For when the price of crypto tanks, a given company's reserves quickly shrink. Mining companies have taken a hit this past year, due to rising energy costs and high debt from expanded borrowing in 2021. Coinbase, which is consistently the second most popular exchange by trading volume, has lost 87% of its market value since its direct listing in April 2021.
It doesn't take an expert to realize that a lot of these crypto companies won't survive. Many have already filed for bankruptcy:
Three Arrows Capital
Alameda Research/FTX
Voyager Digital
BlockFi
Celsius
Whether or not the above companies will successfully emerge from these bankruptcies remains to be seen. There are still definitely tough times ahead for the crypto industry. The fact that the prices of major tokens are still depressed does not help them. But, whether or not these companies survive the "crypto winter" is really quite irrelevant for the tokens themselves. The all-time chart of Bitcoin is still bullish, despite being down from its all-time high.
The previous peaks in 2018 and 2019 were followed by consolidation periods, or "crashes" as they were referred to as they were happening. It appears that Bitcoin is in just that now, another period of consolidation.
Another important factor to consider is the upcoming Bitcoin Halving, which is forecasted to occur in March 2024. Halving happens every 210,000 blocks in the blockchain, when the reward for miners is cut in half. The next halving will drop the mining reward from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block. The Bitcoin Halving Clock explains quite well the history of price action at these events: https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/
In conclusion, I would like to take the time to mention a few crypto companies that have gone defunct, one by scandal and one by hack & list the price of Bitcoin when they went down, compared to now.
Quadriga
Defunct February 5, 2019
Bitcoin closed at $3,466.36
Current price is +402% since 2/5/19
Mt. Gox
Halted operations February 7, 2014
Bitcoin closed at $712.40
Current price is +2,345% since 2/7/14
While certainly necessary for the world of cryptocurrencies, specific companies come and go. I don't believe that the ultimate success of any particular token, if measured by price, depends of how any particular company fairs. Let me go ahead and list one final company here that is fresh in everyone's mind.
FTX
Bankruptcy/withdrawals halted November 11, 2022
Bitcoin closed at $17,055.93
Current price is +2% since 11/11/22
Yes, You Can Buy a Sandwich with Crypto
You may have read that title and thought to yourself, "what in the world?" Whether or not you were thrown off by the sheer randomness of that thought, let me explain where this comes from. I was listening to the radio yesterday, as I do most days. Being a fairly active follower of business news and financial markets, I tune into my local Bloomberg station.
Anyway, I switched on mid-interview. I have no idea who was speaking, but it was clear they were not a believer in cryptocurrencies. This person was going on about how cryptocurrencies are "hidden money;" husbands who are in the middle of divorces are using it to conceal funds from their wives, the wealthy are using it to evade taxes, criminals are using it to launder money, etc. He was clearly very much opposed and implied that crypto is only used for nefarious activities.
I won't even get into KYC standards that most exchanges require which are put in place to prevent money laundering, as that's the first thing that entered my mind. Or that the blockchain is a public ledger for everyone to see, not so hidden. (Side note -- Alameda wallets active days after SBF bail) The quote that stuck with me from this interview was as follows: "you can't even buy a sandwich with crypto." This guy was speaking as if Bitcoin was not money, not a means of exchange for goods and services. While the scalability problems exists, let me go ahead and explain step-by-step how you *can* buy a sandwich with crypto. https://cointelegraph.com/news/alameda-wallets-become-active-days-after-sbf-bail-community-mulls-foul-play
Step One - Visit menufy.com - each restaurant listed here can accept crypto via BitPay https://www.menufy.com/ https://bitpay.com/
Step Two - Choose your favorite restaurant: carryout or delivery?
Step Three - Add sandwich. How about a BLT?
Step Four - Select 'cryptocurrency' on checkout screen
Step Five - Connect your wallet & pay
Step Six - Receive your delivery/pick up your order. Enjoy sandwich.
Am I being funny? Kind of. But also trying to prove a point. There aren't any restaurants actually open right now as I write this, so I can't punch an order through. But I will do that for a follow-up post. Obviously, "you can't buy a sandwich with crypto" was not one of the main points this guys was trying to make. However, I am obviously in firm disagreement with him on that point, and mostly everything else he had to say. He was wrong about the sandwich, and he is wrong in thinking that Bitcoin isn't a viable currency. It already is; for more than just sandwiches you know!
Bitcoin vs. Major US Stock Indexes
Today, I had a brief conversation with someone about cryptocurrencies. I basically asked this person what he thought of Bitcoin, and his response was simply "it's done -- that ship has sailed." It was pretty clear he was not interested in speaking to me about it, which was fine. I thought to myself though, "has the ship really sailed? *Is* it done?"
Obviously, if you have read any of my blogs, you already know my thoughts on that. No, I do not believe Bitcoin is "done." In fact, the Bitcoin hash rate remains near the all-time high, reached earlier this year. Miners are still providing plenty of computing power to power the network, meaning that security and functionality of Bitcoin remains strong.
It's hard for me to call it "done" when looking at this metric.
Now, onto price. Perhaps the metric that most people would point to as cryptocurrency's failure. True, we are in a bear market. But so are stocks. Here is a visualization, in chart form, of the price of Bitcoin compared to the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index:
As you can see here, I've highlighted the two previous bottoms, where the prices of the three were very close, by percentage comparisons. As time goes on, they seem to be more and more closely correlated. Obviously, stocks are highly-affected by US monetary policy. Despite being decentralized from central banks, ironically cryptocurrencies also take a hit when the Fed becomes hawkish and tightens monetary policy by raising interest rates.
Interestingly, Bitcoin has only topped the S&P and NASDAQ twice, each briefly when it hit the two previous all-time highs in 2021.
As the S&P 500 can be seen as a gauge of sentiment of the biggest American companies and the overall US economy to a degree, Bitcoin can be seen as a gauge of sentiment on the future of cryptocurrencies as a whole. At the moment, as of December 2022, both are down from their previous highs. It seems that all three are once again making their way to another convergence, as seen in December 2019 and February 2020 -- the two previous lows. We are not quite there yet, by the looks of it.
It's impossible to call the bottom of any bear market, so I'm not even going to try. I will say this: Bitcoin is far from being done, and its next bull run should come with the next bull market for US stocks.
As an OG once said, "...as for me, I am HODLING!"
Bitcoin Price Speculation - Is It Even Worth It?
I originally wanted to title this post "Bitcoin Price Forecast" but felt that the word "forecast" is too precise; it implies studying applicable data and making what is essentially an educated guess. The problem is that people can all look at the same data and come up with different conclusions. So, I prefer the word "speculate" because I feel it is just more fitting. Semantics, for sure, but let me explain.
Here you can see two separate news stories from FX Street, both posted within 12 hours of each other. One postulates Bitcoin dropping to $14k and the other a rise to $17k. Same source, two opposing views. Now obviously these are from different authors, but my point is that it's quite difficult to get a good reading on where the price of Bitcoin will go.
**Monthly Chart Appears Neutral to Me**
Over the past 30 days, the price of Bitcoin is essentially back where it started on November 19, 2022. The price sits around $16,500 at the time of this writing. Volume is relatively low, which is not unusual as 2022 draws to a close.
**Support at $15,500 Remains**
Having a look at this three month chart, you can see that the support level is pretty clearly defined at approximately the $15,500 level. That is, of course, only short-term support. If you zoom out and look at the all-time chart, $10k will be the next level to watch if $15.5k breaks.
If $10k does not hold up, the next level to watch will be $3,200 which goes back to 2019. Am I saying that Bitcoin will crash to $3,200? Certainly not. In reality, I do not know. It's certainly not completely out of the cards, but it would be a shock to me personally. My "technical analysis" is by no means that of an expert; I am definitely an amateur chart-watcher.
**Notable Speculations**
I thought it might be interesting to take a look at what some others have said, and where their calls stand now. Here's a short list of some of those calls:
Tyler Winklevoss: $500k
Anthony Pompliano: $100-250k
Shervin Pishevar: $100k
Jeremy Liew: $500k
And some of the more ultra, ultra bull predictions:
Chamath Palihapitiya: $1,000,000 by 2037
Wences Casares: $1,000,000 by 2027
Cathie Wood: $1,000,000 by 2030
Finally, a brief (incomplete) list of people who believe Bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies to be worthless:
Peter Schiff
Warren Buffett
Jamie Dimon
Charlie Munger
**My Price Prediction For 2023**
It wouldn't be an article about speculation without a price prediction, right? My amateur opinion for the price of Bitcoin throughout 2023 is as follows - BTC will test the 10k support level briefly in the first half of the year before ping-ponging between the 14-18k region for most of the year. It will finally head above 20k at the end of the year, setting up a new bull run for 2024.
I can't wait to revisit this post this post in a year's time to see how wrong I was. Gotta start somewhere, right?
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