Origin Materials - Commissioning Underway in Sarnia?
*This post contains speculation, opinions, and unofficial information. Do not consider it investment advice; always perform you own due diligence.*
**Commissioning Underway?**
Good evening; today we have stumbled upon some new information via a LinkedIn search. What we have here is a relatively new employee to Origin Materials, revealing in their profile resume that they are working on commissioning and start-up activities at the Origin 1 facility in Sarnia, Ontario.
You can see that this person is experienced and skilled in the commissioning and start-up of chemical plants.
And finally, they have posted (perhaps) a foreshadowing of this to come?
Mechanical completion is listed as a goal by the end of 2022, along with commissioning and start-up:
Many are clamoring for a press release that would make the news official. It stands to reason that, if indeed commissioning is underway, the plant must already be "mechanically completed" -- all components and systems of the project have been constructed, installed, and tested. It would seem, by the employee's LinkedIn profile, that things have been underway since November and everything is on schedule. An official release by the company would confirm the speculation.
**CFO Exercises Stock Option, Sells**
It was reported today in a Form 4 filing that Chief Financial Officer Nate Whaley has sold 50,000 shares that were acquired by exercising a stock option. The shares were sold in-line with a 10b5-1 plan, a pre-arranged trading plan.
**Q4 '22 Earnings Date**
Mark your calendars for the first week of February. Around that time, the company should announce a date for their Q4 2022 Earnings Call. A press release containing the details will come out about two weeks before the actual conference call.
**Support at $5 Holds Strong**
The stock has been hovering above the $5 for the past three trading days. Despite the depressed price from last week, there still seems to be quite a bit of support at $5 -- as it briefly touches that level and has bounced off it every time the price hits that territory.
Origin Materials Sunday Wrap-up (December 18, 2022)
*Good evening everyone. In case you haven't noticed, rather than post a regular weekly update on Origin Materials (NASDAQ: ORGN), I have decided to just post the information as it becomes available. I will try my best to post as soon as new developments arise, but always check* *the official investor section* *on their website for official company news. A lot of the content that I post here may be speculation, opinionated, and/or unofficial. Do not consider it investment advice; always perform you own due diligence.* https://investors.originmaterials.com/news-releases
**Investors Speculate on Licensing Deal**
A member of the raucously suggestive yet surprisingly informative Origin Materials Stocktwits message stream recently posted a StrawPoll, asking when everyone thinks the first licensing deal will be announced: https://stocktwits.com/symbol/ORGN
So most voters, though only 18 ballots were logged, believe that the first licensing deal will come next year. Interestingly, the second most votes are for 2025, which is when the Origin 2 facility is expected to be operational.
Officially, to date, there have been more than a few mentions from Origin Materials officials regarding licensing their proprietary technology to other companies. The first comes from the investor FAQ:
In addition, mentioned in the most recent (and many previous) 10-Q filing:
Going back in time, here's a snippet from an interview John Bissell did with *Industrial Biotechnology* in April 2021:
So, fast forward 20 months, and the company has nine times the backlog of orders, totaling $9 billion. I think it's pretty safe to assume that a licensing agreement will happen. The question that's on everyone's mind is: what will the timing of it be? Hence the StrawPoll! If you have read the job postings closely, something may already be in the works.
**Video of LSBC Confirms Vote**
As if phone calls weren't enough, the proof is now out in the pudding. You may see and hear it for yourself, via a video of the Louisiana State Bond Commission's December meeting. If you want to skip ahead, just go to the 11:30 mark. https://house.louisiana.gov/h_video/VideoArchivePlayer?v=house/2022/dec/1215_22_STATEBOND
I will now copy & paste from one of my previous blog posts to rehash what comes next:
There is now a period of 30 days to pass in order to allow for anyone to file suit to object/prevent the issuance of the bonds. During that time period, the bond counsel will establish a closing date and prepare the closing documents. The closing date could be as early as January 15, 2023. It will likely take more time than that, however.
At closing, the purchase price of the bonds are exchanged for the bonds and the amount raised from the bonds (up to $1.5 billion) would the be deposited for the benefit of Origin Materials. Also at closing, the company would owe the closing fees to the Louisiana Public Facilities Authority and Bond Commission. At this point, it is unclear how much the closing costs would be on $1.5 billion of bonds.
The company has cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities in the amount of $362.2 million as of September 30, 2022. They are also set to potentially receive $100 million in incentives from the state of Louisiana and Ascension Parish. The 150-acre land site for the Origin 2 facility has already been paid for.
**Weekly Chart**
What appeared to be a strong start to the week was quickly hammered on Wednesday by the Fed's latest decision on monetary policy. The surprise of the expected fed funds rate to hit 5.1% in 2023 seems to be what spooked markets and sent stock tumbling on Thursday and Friday. Shares of Origin Materials were no exception.
The news of the bond authorization on the 14th did nothing for the stock, despite being a positive news item for the company. Still, an uptick in trading volume can be noted for the past week.
**Greater Sacramento Economical Council Releases 'Success Story' Video on Origin**
Source: https://www.greatersacramento.com/es/origin-materials/, new as of December 14, 2022.
At the End of the Day, Crypto is Money
Perhaps it is something that just I overlook but I often forget what crypto actually represents. I definitely sometimes overthink it and am bombarded constantly by phrases such as "Bitcoin is freedom" and "Bitcoin is the future" and whatever else happens to appear on my Twitter timeline on any given day. While these sayings may contain some degree of truth, they don't ring as loud now as they did at the peak of the crypto market last year.
A co-worker recently asked me, "what is Bitcoin? Why would I want it?" To which I replied, "money." Amid trading, research, and analysis, I often forget that at the end of the day cryptocurrencies are simply money. Currency trading, by its nature, is extremely speculative, volatile, and not for the faint of heart. My elderly neighbor asked me in the spring of 2021 about Bitcoin and how she could get some. I explained to her that it is money but the price is constantly changing and could not recommend that she buy some because if the price were to go down, she would not be happy with me.
What I did do was send her a link to the Bitcoin white paper and a few introductory articles on how it works and about Bitcoin wallets. She did not buy any at the time, and I reminded her of our conversation the other day, pointing out the price of Bitcoin was around $60,000 at that time to now around $16,500. We have learned that cryptocurrencies are not really inflation resistant, in fact there are large outflows happening in an inflationary environment. But that does not mean people still are not using Bitcoin.
A few days ago, my car broke down rendering it inoperable. In dire need of a tow truck, I turned to my seldom used AAA membership. It was a cold, rainy night and I knew it would be a long wait. In about an hour, the driver showed up and promptly got to work. He was a nice guy, got the job done peomptly, and wanted to give him a tip. I did not have any cash, so I asked him if he would accept crypto. Much to my surprise, he had a wallet and knew all about it. As it turned out, he was from El Salvador and said "this is actually very good. I can send it to my family back home."
It was not a huge amount, a little more than $5 -- as I only keep small amounts in my mobile wallet. I wish I could have sent him more. But he told me that they use it a lot in his country, which I already knew but still listened to what he was saying.
This wasn't the first time I had ever sent crypto to someone, but it did make me recall that at the end of the day, crypto is money. It can be used for the exchange of goods and services. Well Bitcoin is certainly not worth what it was last year, it will always be worth something to someone. A trader or investor holding coins that fell from 60k to 16k obviously has a different perspective than someone sending money home to their family abroad.
Mr. Wonderful Goes to Washington
The Senate Banking Committee convened today for a hearing titled "Crypto Crash: Why the FTX Bubble Burst and the Harm to Consumers." I have posted a link to the full video replay at the bottom of this post. It's over two hours long and contains a lot of different perspectives.
Witnesses included:
Prof Hilary Allen, American University Washington College of Law
Kevin O'Leary, Investor
Jennifer Schulp, Director of Financial Regulation Studies, Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, Cato Institute
Ben Schenkkan, Actor & Author
I would like to focus on "Mr. Wonderful," the *Shark Tank* guy as you may know him, Kevin O'Leary. Obviously, this hearing was scheduled in the aftermath of the collapse of FTX.
O'Leary himself was originally not a believer in the crypto-space, until 2021. In May, he disclosed that he had made a small allocation to Bitcoin. Later that year, he entered into an agreement with FTX to be a paid spokesperson. He was paid $15 million for that role, plus an addition $3 million to cover a portion of taxes due. Of that money, he invested $1 million in FTX equity and $10 million in tokens held in FTX wallets. O'Leary acknowledged that said money is now gone, stating he has "written them off to zero."
He went on to discuss the need to get to the bottom of exactly what happened at FTX, but spent the other half of his testimony defending crypto and speaking of its potential. This quote from his prepared remarks stuck out to me in particular:
Crypto, blockchain technology and digital payment systems will be the twelfth sector of the S&P within a decade.
Obviously, as a holder of various cryptocurrencies and stakeholder in WonderFi/BitBuy and Circle, it makes sense that he would make such a bullish statement.
It is important to distinguish, I believe, what happened with FTX from cryptocurrencies in general. The collapse of FTX was not a function of the crypto market, but rather mismanagement and poor leadership. The diversion of customer funds by SBF was the fault of the company: not Bitcoin, not Ethereum, not any coin. FTX was a centralized exchange, with improper oversight. So what does Mr. Wonderful suggest, to prevent another FTX?
We need clear policy and regulation for the crypto industry, its entrepreneurs, its developers and its users. Congress should start by passing bipartisan
legislation that creates a sensible regulatory framework for digital stablecoins backed by the U.S. dollar. Why? A well-regulated stablecoin backed by the U.S. dollar and other high quality, liquid assets could become the global default payment system over time.
U.S. lawmakers are quite divided on the issue. There seem to be two schools of thought on what to do regarding cryptocurrencies:
1) Do nothing, as crypto is an overvalued fad; passing regulations will only legitimize the space and encourage more investment.
2) Increase regulation, in order to protect investors and hold exchanges to strict standards
Something needs to happen. The can has been kicked down the road for too long. What happened at FTX, from all indications, was fraud. Exchanges need to be held to strict standards, so that another FTX doesn't happen. To lump cryptocurrencies in general with FTX as fraud is just misinformed. Think of how many companies, publicly traded on US stock exchanges, have been called out and proven to be fraudulent. Does that mean all stocks are a farce? No.
Kevin O'Leary himself once called Bitcoin "worthless," perhaps certain politicians just need to do some more research themselves too.
https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/crypto-crash-why-the-ftx-bubble-burst-and-the-harm-to-consumers
Next Steps in Bond Approval Process for Origin Materials US Megasite
**On the Agenda**
This past week, it was revealed via the Louisiana State Bond Commission posting its preliminary for its December meeting that the final approval of the private activity bonds to fund Origin's Geismar facility are on the agenda: https://www.treasury.la.gov/state-bond-commission https://a4de8bd9-8c02-4b69-8f48-7792cfcaf8fd.usrfiles.com/ugd/a4de8b_cd554bad73044d21873ba811f1491ca8.pdf
Here's my article on that development. https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/revenue-bonds-for-origin-materials-geismar-facility-on-lsbcs-xvmjxgv
**What Comes Next?**
The LA State Bond Commission's monthly meeting is set for December 15, 2022. The meeting is set for 8:00am - Central Standard Time.
The next step, assuming S22-051 is approved, will be for 30 days to pass in order to allow for anyone to file suit to object/prevent the issuance of the bonds. During that time period, the bond counsel will establish a closing date and prepare the closing documents. The closing date could be as early as January 15, 2023.
At closing, the purchase price of the bonds are exchanged for the bonds and the amount raised from the bonds (up to $1.5 billion) would the be deposited for the benefit of Origin Materials. Also at closing, the company would owe the closing fees to the Louisiana Public Facilities Authority and Bond Commission. At this point, it is unclear how much the closing costs would be on $1.5 billion of bonds.
The company has cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities in the amount of $362.2 million as of September 30, 2022. They are also set to potentially receive $100 million in incentives from the state of Louisiana and Ascension Parish.
The 150-acre land site for the Origin 2 facility has already been paid for. From the latest 10-Q:
**Louisiana Has Already Authorized $1.1B in Bonds for Strategic Biofuels**
Strategic Biofuels received the approval in September for tax-exempt revenue bonds, in the amount of $1.1 billion, to build their plant in the Caldwell Parish at the Port of Columbia. They plan to produce diesel fuel made from plant waste. After getting the authorization news in September, they have begun to break ground on their upcoming plant.
The reason I mention this company is that it is in a similar space to Origin Materials, and they have already been greenlit by the Bond Commission for similar financing.
**Origin Megasite Timetable**
According to the latest investor presentation, front-end engineering design on the Geismar Megasite (O2) is expected to be completed by the end of Q1 2023, by which time the fate of the private activity bonds will be determined. Hunt, Guillot & Associates "will provide full-service engineering to support and augment Origin in all phases of the project, from early design to construction, logistics, planning, detailed scheduling, cost forecasts, progress tracking and reporting, and work stream integration."
Construction of O2 is expected to begin Q2 2023, being mechanically complete by Q1 2025 and operating later that year.
For now, we await to hear word that the Louisiana State Bond Commission has given final authorization for Origin's proposed revenue bonds. I will personally be making that phone call next Thursday morning and hope to hear a good word.
Revenue Bonds for Origin Materials Geismar Facility on LSBC's December Agenda
A week from today, the Louisiana State Bond Commission will convene for its December meeting. They are set to review applications from local parishes, municipalities, and other subdivisions requesting the authority to incur debt or levy taxes. All projects are reviewed for legal requirements and feasability, specifically the ability to repay indebtedness incurred. As expected, the final approval for revenue bonds to finance the construction of Origin Materials' O2 facility in Geismar, LA is on the agenda: https://www.treasury.la.gov/state-bond-commission
A couple of things stick out to me. For one, the "I" after the Origin US Megasite implies there are several other large facilities planned. This is not really news, but this is the first concrete example of it mentioned outside an investor presentation.
So, getting back to the bonds. The cap is set at $1.5 billion, while the company had previously disclosed a preliminary approval of $400 million. Pending final approval, that's 3.75x the amount originally announced. The funding forecast from June 2021, which has yet to be updated, puts O2 capital expenditures at $1.072 billion.
The footnotes do reference contingencies for cost overruns, which may explain why the proposed amount for the revenue bonds has an extra $400 million. Regardless, the company is one step closer to securing project financing.
The interest rates set forth, 12% if tax-free and 14% for taxable bonds, are much higher than actual market rates. Currently, investment grade yields are about 6-7% and junk yields around 8-10% and the current market reflects current expectations of Fed monetary policy. Furthermore, the proposed authorization of revenue bonds for O2 would set the maximum maturity for the bonds at 40 years. At this point, it's unclear if the company will issue tax-exempt or taxable bonds.
On December 15, 2022, the State Bond Commission will make their decision. It should be noted that Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards is on the bond committee and has already expressed his seal of approval to the project, as it aligns with his administration's agenda:
In addition to the Tweet, his office issued a formal press release on the same date, with the same affirmative message. While it's not a done deal and we still have to wait for a final decision next week, it seems that the leadership of Louisiana is throwing its support to Origin Materials. https://gov.louisiana.gov/index.cfm/newsroom/detail/3564
Shares of Origin Materials (NASDAQ: ORGN) closed slightly green, essentially flat, today with a massive volume spike at 2:50pm.
Origin Materials: Mid-Week Update, 12/7/22
Another day gone by, another day closer to the mechanical completion of Origin Materials' first manufacturing facility in Sarnia, Ontario. I can only imagine the construction crews are wrapping things up. Let's have a look at the bird's eye view, recently featured in the latest construction update video: https://vimeo.com/766636875?embedded=true&source=vimeo_logo&owner=138272832
Truly, a sight to behold. That's the look of a $125-130 million facility. The final cost has not yet been revealed but is expected to be within that range.
**Pia Johanna Heidenmark Cook Sells $20k Worth of Shares**
The director reported the sale on December 5 in a form 4 filing. While insiders will sell for a variety of reasons, this one's pretty clear cut. It is perfectly spelled out in the footnotes: https://investors.originmaterials.com/node/8546/html
The sales reported on this Form 4 represent shares sold by the Reporting Person to cover tax withholding obligations in connection with the vesting and settlement of restricted stock units.
She sold a total of 3,636 shares at an average price of $5.62, putting the value of the transaction at $20,434. If there were an insider sale that was cause for concern, it's certainly not this one.
**Advanced Biofuels features Carbon Capture Magazine Podcast**
A podcast from last month was posted to Advanced Biofuels USA website. A solid overview for those unfamiliar with Origin Materials. Close watchers of the company will find nothing new here. https://advancedbiofuelsusa.info/carbon-capture-magazine-podcast-turning-co2-found-in-biomass-into-useful-materials-2/
**CEOs Present at Credit Suisse Climate Tech Conference**
Today, co-CEOs John Bissell and Rich Riley participated in the Credit Suisse Climate Tech Conference. It was a virtual event, solely for institutional investors. It is not clear specifically what institutions they met with. Replays aren't not yet available, but keep a close eye on the events and presentations page on the Origin Investors section, should something get posted. https://investors.originmaterials.com/events-and-presentations
**UC-Davis Graduate School of Management to Feature Case Study on Origin Materials**
**Bonds for O2 Funding Expected on Upcoming Louisiana State Bond Commission Meeting**
The private activity bonds that have already been approved by the Louisiana Public Facilities Authority are now set for the next step in the process, getting approval from the State Bond Commission. It's expected that they will be on the docket for the next meeting. So keep an eye on their website. Specifically, here is where the link will be: https://www.treasury.la.gov/state-bond-commission
**John Birmingham's Beard: Grey?**
It's hard to believe that the once clean-shaven process engineer has not only grown a magnificent chin curtain. Here is, from a process overview video from October 2021:
Thirteen months and no razors later:
It looks like there's a tinge of grey in there. Not a sign of aging, but rather wisdom. Allow me to bestow some insight myself: Origin Materials is less than six months away from shedding its "pre-revenue" label. In my opinion, this change is not baked into the current stock price. Wall Street analysts, it appears, would agree as well:
Coinbase Wallet To Discontinue Support of Bitcoin Cash
I first discovered Bitcoin Cash from using the old noise.cash site. Last year, the tips were plentiful and the price of BCH surged past $1500 per token in May. I was pretty impressed with the speed of transactions. Bitcoin Cash itself was created in August 2017 when Bitcoin miners and developers initiated a hard fork of the original Bitcoin code. Part of the reasoning behind its creation was to increase transaction speeds. Bitcoin Cash uses larger blocks, up to 32 MB, to process transactions faster and boast lower transaction fees than the original Bitcoin. https://noise.cash/
Obviously, the original Bitcoin wins out price appreciation since inception by a long shot. Bitcoin Cash also falls short on adoption, as the network processes a fraction of the transactions that Bitcoin does.
**Coinbase Announces Discontinuation of Support for BCH in Wallet**
On November 30, Coinbase announced that it would no longer support the Bitcoin Cash asset on its wallet. The exchange has cited "low usage" as the reason. And there's certainly a point to be made there. Just have a look at the average monthly trading volume since January 2022:
Through the first five months of the year, average monthly trading volume was well over 100 billion. It has plummeted to to 7-9 billion over the past four months. The price per token has taken a shellacking over 2022 as well, like all other cryptocurrencies.
If you are using Coinbase Wallet be aware that as of January 2023, Bitcoin Cash will no longer be supported. You will still be able to withdrawal to another non-custodial wallet. Other assets that won't be supported starting next year are Ethereum Classic, Stella, and Ripple.
**Misleading Report by Fortune**
I stumbled upon this news from Coinbase as I'm a user of their wallet. When I saw this headline featured on Fortune Crypto, I was concerned and had to look further into the situation myself. https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/11/30/coinbase-delisting-xrp-bitcoin-cash-ethereum-classic-low-usage-wallet-crypto-winter/
The article uses the word "delisting," which is actually technically incorrect. A delisting implies that the tokens will no longer be available to buy, sell, or swap on the Coinbase exchange. If you read the very last bullet point on the official statement from Coinbase: https://help.coinbase.com/en/wallet/getting-started/what-types-of-crypto-does-wallet-support
So it appears that Bitcoin Cash will still be tradeable on their exchange, just no longer supported in the Coinbase Wallet. At least that's my interpretation of that final bullet point. It doesn't quite sound like a delisting to me.
I wanted to share this information, as many of the crypto blogging/microblogging sites I frequent use Bitcoin Cash. It's always been one of my favorite "altcoins." Though I do wonder what the future holds for BCH. As of this writing, the price is down 85% since its inception.
Fun fact - I once paid off a bet in Bitcoin Cash.
What is Nano & Get Some XNO for Free
**Overview and History**
Nano (abbreviation: XNO) is a cryptocurrency, which boasts itself as being eco-friendly and inclusive. It doesn't cost anything to send; there are no fees. It doesn't rely on mining to power the network, but rather a "open representative voting" system.
Nano can be used for:
Remittances
Microtransactions
Online & in-store payments
Foreign exchange & trading
Banking infrastructure
Originally launched in 2015 as RaiBlocks, the protocol's sole purpose is to be a "high-performance cryptocurrency," per the original white paper. Built on an "innovative block-lattice data structure offering unlimited scalability and no transaction fees," it was launched by Colin LeMahieu. In 2017, the supply limit of 133,248,297 was reached. A year later, in January 2018, the crypto was renamed from RaiBlocks to Nano.
**Price**
The price of Nano skyrocketed in December 2017 and reached an all-time high of $33.69 in January 2018. The price took a hit in February of that year, when it was revealed that Italian crypto exchange BitGrail announced it had been hacked, eventually leading to its shutdown. Users were unable to access 17 million XNO, as it had been stolen by the hackers. The stolen coins were worth about $170 million at the time, and the incident led to a plummet in the price of Nano. It never really recovered, until the beginning of 2021 when the price was briefly over $10 again.
XNO is currently trading at 77 cents per token.
**Most Efficient**
For me, the two main takeaways about Nano are that it's feeless and extremely efficient. In fact, the Nano Foundation themselves calls XNO "the world's most efficient digital currency." Transactions are completed within a second. As the world looks toward a "net zero" future, Nano can be a leader in that regard as the carbon footprint is extremely small, especially when compared to Bitcoin:
Nano makes a very convincing case that it can be extremely beneficial for charities. https://nano.org/en/blog/accept-worldwide-donations-for-free-with-nano-the-donation-tool-every-non-profit--7d9e224f
**Get Some XNO!**
Once you have a wallet capable of holding Nano, you can try it out for yourself. I personally use Trust Wallet. There are several faucets that will easily send you small amounts of XNO for free. No hassle, no PTC ads, no bullshit. Well, some may require solving a captcha. But that's a tolerable level of BS in my view. https://hub.nano.org/wallets
https://nanodrop.io/
https://freenanofaucet.com/
https://nanswap.com/nano-faucet
https://faucetqueen.repl.co/
https://nanocafe.cc/faucet
https://faucet.prussia.dev/nano
Please note that these faucets only drop minuscule amounts of XNO. Hopefully this post was somewhat insightful and you have enjoyed it.
Learn a bit about Nano (XNO) and where you can get some of this highly efficient and feeless crypto for free!
https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/what-is-nano-and-get-some-xno-for-free-xmyrekm
Crypto Scrooged: Tree Lots Don't Accept Bitcoin
The day started off with me finally throwing out the Thanksgiving leftovers. Now that we're out of the woods from contracting salmonella, listeria, or E. coli from the week and a half old turkey, stuffing and mashed potatoes, it's naturally time to look to the next upcoming holiday -- our beloved Christmas. I was recently speaking to someone about Bitcoin, and they were confused as to why anyone would want it. His position was basically "you can't spend it anywhere, so what's the point?"
True, cryptocurrencies aren't exactly mainstream when it comes to practical use. In my region of the United States, I have yet to find a physical location that accepts any crypto as a form of payment. Shopping online is obviously a different story. I'm talking about actual physical locations. I wanted to prove my friend wrong. I wanted to buy a Christmas tree with Bitcoin. I knew the chances were slim, but I wanted to be right. So, today I went to a few tree lots in my area to see if they would accept Bitcoin.
The first one I visited was a local farm selling trees. I asked the guy working there if they accepted Bitcoin, and he just laughed and said "no." Not really surprising, as I didn't expect that they would. The second lot I inquired at was a local plant nursery. When I posed the question, the employee said "isn't Bitcoin bankrupt?" -- perhaps referring to FTX. I explained to them that the Bitcoin network is doing just fine but yes some exchanges have recently declared bankruptcy. At this point, this guy really didn't want to hear too much of the intricacies of cryptocurrencies and had to go tie down a tree to the roof of a car.
Bear in mind that I didn't really think any of these place would actually accept Bitcoin. But I had to be sure. So finally, I went to Whole Foods because I heard they had nice trees for a decent price. The lots were looking for $80-120 per tree, depending on the type and size. So I was quite pleased to see what the grocer had to offer:
Great! So, at this point, I have strayed from my little experiment about paying for a Christmas tree with Bitcoin. Though technically, had I purchased a gift card via eGifter or Bitrefill, I suppose I could have paid for the tree with satoshis. But that's really more of an indirect method. It is worth noting that in 2019, Whole Foods started accepting cryptocurrencies as payment if you use the Spedn app. https://www.egifter.com/bitcoin/whole-foods-market-gift-card-bitcoin https://www.bitrefill.com/buy/whole-foods-usa/?hl=en
So let's get that tree home now.
Though the bundled tree slid nicely into the vehicle through the trunk, it littered the back seat with stray needles. But at least there was no hassle of securing it to the roof and having the anxiety of it possibly falling off on the way home.
The tree has now made it home. Let's get it unbundled and ready to put into the stand. What's Christmas after all, without struggling to get that tree upright in the stand just right? It's always leaning a little much to one side, no matter how hard you try. I'm getting Coke'd up, using gloves so my hands don't get all sappy, and a 12 year old dull and rusted out saw that I pretty much only use to trim the stumps of Christmas trees. Everybody has one of those, I'm quite sure.
It's good to go, now I have to get it inside. It's actually not too much of a struggle getting it setup straight in the stand this year, a very pleasant surprise. After spending about an hour changing light bulbs between three different strands to get one that's fully working, the tree is trimmed and looking halfway decent.
So, unfortunately, I was unable to pay for a tree with Bitcoin this year. So be it; it is what it is. I did, however, find a Reddit post from 2019 in which the author states that his small Christmas tree business accepted their first BTC payment. How much did they collect? https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/e7uwln/own_a_small_christmas_tree_business_we_received/
It's not mentioned what day the transaction took place but in December 2019 the price of Bitcoin was about $7500, so 200k sats was worth about $150 at the time. Here's what that tree sold back in 2019 is worth today:
Not too shabby. In the end, while I was unable to find a lot that accepts BTC, there indeed has been at least one. Deck the halls!
Are meme stocks dead? On Thursday, AMC said "not yet"
It was just the other day, Monday I think, that I was listening to an interview on Bloomberg Radio. I don't recall who was speaking, but the question was posed: "are meme stocks dead?" The interviewee said something to the effect of "meme stocks were a fad of the past two years and if you look at the once high flying names like GME and AMC, they are all down significantly from their highs." That's not an exact quote, but that was the gist of it.
Not so fast. AMC soared up as much as 22% yesterday, even being halted up at one point.
So what's going on? An uptick in trading volume, for one. Yesterday saw 96.71 million shares traded, up a whopping 368% over the 65 day average of 26.31 million.
CEO Adam Aron recently acknowledged on Twitter that the newly listed AMC merchandise came at the idea of shareholders. This may have ignited renewed interest from the apes, or maybe it's just a bear market rally. Trending nonetheless.
As of this writing, shares of AMC are up 3.18% in premarket trading on volume of 318k.
So is the meme stock dead? I would say this: in the 2021 sense of the phrase, yes. The irrational exuberance that sent Gamestop and AMC stocks to ridiculous levels probably won't return any time soon. There just doesn't seem to be enough interest or action in the calls for another massive short squeeze. For short-term traders looking to make a quick buck, AMC seems have some juice to it for now. But the stock is still down a lot over the past year.
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**Join** **Cointiply** **and roll the faucet every hour, view PTC ads, etc. to earn free Bitcoin.** http://cointiply.com/r/ND51K8
**Make an account at** **read.cash** **and earn Bitcoin Cash (BCH) tips for writing short posts or full articles.** https://read.cash/r/RocketEnthusiast
**Downoad the** **Bitcoin Cash Giveaway** **to collect some free BCH sats, paid out weekly** https://bitcoinaliens.com/?ref=5501789&game=7&pf=2
Resources
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/amc
https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/stocks/terminal/AMC
Origin Materials - 12/2/22 Updates
**Bill Harvey Added to Black Bay Energy Capital's Strategic Advisory Board**
On November 30, it was announced that Bill Harvey would join Black Bay Energy Capital's SAB. Harvey has served on the board of directors at Origin Materials since 2017. He has spent over 30 years at DuPont in various capacity and is currently the President of DuPont Packaging and Industrial Polymers. Why is his addition to the Strategic Advisory Board of Black Bay Energy Capital important? For one, they are based out of New Orleans, LA -- in very close proximity to the Origin 2 Megasite in Geismar, LA. Additionally, Black Bay is a private equity firm who "invests equity capital alongside talented entrepreneurs that provide a differentiated product or service to their clients to help reduce costs, improve operations, and achieve ESG initiatives." Does that sound familiar?
Differentiated product? Check.
Help clients reduce costs? Check.
Improve operations? Check.
Achieve ESG initiatives? Check.
Let the speculation continue!
**Hiring Continues**
The company is continuing to add new employees, recently adding a Technical Analyst and a member of the Accounting department. According to the company's LinkedIn page, they are currently seeking to fill 12 positions:
IT Director (West Sacramento)
Executive Assistant
Business Coordinator
Director of Sustainability
Logistics Manager
Plant Manager (West Sacramento)
Process Analytical Scientist (West Sacramento)
Environmental Specialist - Engineer (Sarnia)
EH&S Specialist (West Sacramento)
Project Engineer
Process Engineer - Solids Handling
Process Engineer
**O1 Mechanical Completion Imminent**
Officially, it has been revealed that the Origin 1 facility in Sarnia, Ontario will be completed by the end of 2022. Well, that's 29 days to go. Speculation is running through the investor community: some believe the announcement will come any day, some are saying the end of the month is more likely. So far, the company has achieved all construction milestones on time or ahead of schedule. While a delay is certainly not out of the realm of possibility, it would be a first for the company since becoming publicly traded. In all likelihood, the mechanical completion announcement will come at the end of December.
Mechanical completion is "the final phase of construction activities to verify the completeness of the constructed plant that each installed component conforms to or is fabricated, installed, and tested in accordance with the project specifications and procedures after all mechanical works including pre-commissioning (PC) activities are completed." (The Project Definition) https://www.theprojectdefinition.com/m-c-mechanical-completion/
**Weekly Chart**
The weekly chart is somewhat bullish, though overall trading volume on the stock remains relatively low. It is good to see higher highs and lower lows being established, as perhaps an uptrend is forming.
**The** **original Bitcoin faucet** **is long gone, but there are still ways to collect some free crypto:** https://web.archive.org/web/20100703032414/http://freebitcoins.appspot.com/
Sign up on Publish0x, if you haven't already, to earn free crypto for reading & writing content. https://www.publish0x.com?a=9wdL8l1pdj
Join Cointiply and roll the faucet every hour, view PTC ads, etc. to earn free Bitcoin. http://cointiply.com/r/ND51K8
Make an account at read.cash and earn Bitcoin Cash (BCH) tips for writing short posts or full articles. https://read.cash/r/RocketEnthusiast
Downoad the Bitcoin Cash Giveaway to collect some free BCH sats, paid out weekly https://bitcoinaliens.com/?ref=5501789&game=7&pf=2
https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/origin-materials-november-wrap-up-xddxxmy
Origin Materials November Wrap-Up
Origin Materials: November Wrap-Up
It's been a while since my last post on Origin Materials, the world's leading carbon-negative materials company. The chemical industry can be pretty complex and hard to understand. If you're not familiar with the company or what it does, their own description is pretty clear and concise:
Origin’s mission is to enable the world’s transition to sustainable materials. For over a decade, Origin has developed a platform for turning the carbon found in inexpensive, plentiful, non-food biomass such as sustainable wood residues into useful materials while capturing carbon in the process. Origin’s patented technology platform can help revolutionize the production of a wide range of end products, including clothing, textiles, plastics, packaging, car parts, tires, carpeting, toys, and more with a ~$1 trillion addressable market. In addition, Origin’s technology platform is expected to provide stable pricing largely decoupled from the petroleum supply chain, which is exposed to more volatility than supply chains based on sustainable wood residues.
The company is currently completing construction of their first commercial scale plant in Sarnia, Ontario. Origin 1, or O1, is expected to be operational in 2023. Their second, world scale plant is planned to be operational in 2025 and will be in Geismar, Louisiana.
**Construction Update**
On November 3, the company released its Q3 2022 earnings report. Along with the usual financials and updated investor deck, the company released a construction update video for our viewing pleasure:
https://vimeo.com/766636875
https://player.vimeo.com/video/766636875?title=0&byline=0
**Budget Remains Unchanged**
The company has re-affirmed its commitments to both construction timelines and budgets for its Origin 1 and Origin 2 facilities. The total construction cost of O1 is expected to be $125-130 million, and the company is expecting about $1 billion for O2. They remain confident that "financing assumptions for Origin 2 are reasonable and executable, helped by pending state and local incentives worth more than $100 million and a Private Activity
Bond (“PAB”) allocation of $400 million."
The PAB is now in the hands of the Louisiana State Bond Commission and is expected to be on the docket at an upcoming meeting. It has already received approval from the Louisiana Public Facilities Authority. https://www.treasury.la.gov/state-bond-commission https://www.lpfa.com/
The company has pointed out several sources for federal incentives:
Origin has excellent representation, with the highly experienced Bryan Soukup directing their policy & legislative affairs:
**Co-CEO's Presenting at Credit Suisse Climate Tech Conference**
Being held virtually on December 6-7, the Credit Suisse Climate Tech Conference will allow John Bissell and Rich Riley to conduct meetings with institutional investors. This news was actually the only other piece of news to be officially released by the company in November, in addition to the earnings release at the beginning of the month. Unfortunately, it appears there will be no public access to these upcoming virtual presentations.
Speaking of Credit Suisse, the ADRs have cratered to an all-time low as investors have lost confidence in the Swiss bank's leadership amid massive losses and woes about the company's financial health:
Once again, I digress.
**Emerson Officially Announces Partnership I Dug Up in October**
I will go ahead and toot my own horn on this one. Through some classic internet sleuthing, I was able to uncover information that I used for my blog post titled Origin Materials and Emerson Partner for Digitalization & Operational Excellence on October 26, 2022. https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/origin-materials-and-emerson-partner-for-digitalization-and-xmygkze
The official announcement, Emerson to Automate Origin Materials’ New Carbon-Negative Materials Plant, came out on November 9, 2022. What I found interesting is that this news came from Emerson, not Origin. It really speaks volumes that a company the size of Emerson Electric, $55.77 billion by market cap as of today to be exact, felt it necessary to announce their relationship with a pre-revenue company. It sounds like a bid of confidence in Origin to me. https://www.emerson.com/en-us/news/automation/22-11-emerson-automate-origin-materials
**John Bissell Featured in Two Podcasts**
John Bissell On Raising $650 Million To Reduce Dependence On Petroleum https://alejandrocremades.com/john-bissell/
Origin Story with John Bissell https://www.metro-edge.org/18-origin-story-with-john-bissell/
**Wall Street Journal - Sustainable Business**
Products Made With Captured Greenhouse Gas Are Reaching Commercial Scale https://www.wsj.com/articles/products-made-with-captured-greenhouse-gas-are-reaching-commercial-scale-11669647448
Indeed they are. We are about 4 months away from startup of O1. Origin Materials, along with Newlight Technologies, get a solid write-up in the WSJ article.
The Next Domino Falls - BlockFi Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
BlockFi officially announced this morning that it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Activity on its platform have been paused, as the proceedings play out. The company's filing states that they have over 100,000 creditors with assets between $1 billion and $10 billion and liabilities matching that, also between $1 billion and $10 billion.
The largest amount owed is to Ankura Trust Company, a claim of $729 million that BlockFi owes.
The second largest amount is owed to FTX US, an amount of $275 million.
BlockFi also notably owes the SEC $30 million for a settlement dating back to February 2022, when the company agreed to pay a total of $100 million to settle charges of " failing to register the offers and sales of its retail crypto lending product" and violating the registration provisions of the Investment Company Act of 1940.
“With the collapse of FTX, the BlockFi management team and board of directors immediately took action to protect clients and the Company,” said Mark Renzi of Berkeley Research Group, the Company’s financial advisor. “From inception, BlockFi has worked to positively shape the cryptocurrency industry and advance the sector. BlockFi looks forward to a transparent process that achieves the best outcome for all clients and other stakeholders.”
According to BlockFi, they retain $256.9 million worth of cash which should support what the company calls "certain operations" during the restructuring process. It is unclear exactly what these "certain operations" include. As you may expect, they plan to reduce expenses and have already made references to layoffs.
Some of BlockFi's investors include:
Coinbase
Tiger Global
Social Finance
Winklevoss Capital
Hashkey Digital Asset Group
Bain Capital
Valar Ventures
And so here is yet another reason not to keep any of your tokens stored on an exchange. It's pretty ironic that BlockFi owes the US subsidiary of FTX $275 million, after it was reported in August that FTX was attempting to buy BlockFi. Two thirds of BlockFi's staff is said to possibly be laid off, according to Bloomberg. According to the *Wall Street Journal*, Peter Thiel's Valar Ventures had a 19% stake in the company.
What's next in the 2022 crypto apocalypse? Is Genesis out of the woods yet? Will Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust unravel? Stay tuned!
Resources
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221128005451/en/BlockFi-Commences-Restructuring-Proceeding-to-Stabilize-Business-and-Maximize-Value-for-all-Clients-and-Stakeholders
https://blockfi.com/November28-ClientUpdate
https://restructuring.ra.kroll.com/blockfi
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-26
https://blockfi.com/investors/
App Review - Bitcoin Cash Giveaway
When it comes to apps and earning crypto, I've really never messed around with them. It's been my perception that they're not really worth the time spent to what you can actually earn. I recall back in the day earning anywhere from 15 cents to 35 cents for a few hours of listening to internet radio. This was about 2002-2003, so it was a pretty novel concept for me at the time. I seem to recall a minimum of $10 that my short-sighted teenage self couldn't quite make it to.
So I discovered the concept of paid to view advertisements. It's underappreciated and gross underpaid "work" but someone's got to do it, right? Someone, usually younger, with a lot of time on their hands. It's not surprising that crypto came into the mix. While it's certainly not a new form of payment for viewing ads, I wanted to find out just how much one could earn.
Once I found an app I was convinced wasn't a complete scam, I downloaded it. I settles on one called "Bitcoin Cash Giveaway" - a catchy name indeed!
These ad-powered "crypto faucets" are much different than the original Bitcoin Faucet I recall.
Those were the days!
But I digress. Bitcoin Cash Giveaway is easy to download and sign-up for; all you need to do is put in an e-mail address for an account, add your BCH address, and you're ready to go. From what I've experienced, you earn spins by viewing ads and earn satoshis by landing on various amounts. There are options for surveys but I don't seem to qualify for any of them, or they redirect to a third party site which I don't want to get involved with.
There are all kinds of other bonus offers that you can do. The hourly claim is by far the easiest thing to do. And there is another one that gives you a bonus every 4 hours. In just over 3 hours, I have earned 7,844 satoshis.
To put this in perspective, at its current market price, ten thousand satoshis of Bitcoin Cash (.0001 BCH) is worth about $0.01 -- so you can say that about every four hours of casually clicking around on the Bitcoin Cash Giveaway app nets you a penny. Worth it? Methinks not. Will I keep the app and play around on it when I have time to waste? Most likely. The minimum payout is .0001 BCH and paid weekly.
If you so care to check it out for yourself and are gracious enough to use my referral link, here it is:
https://bitcoinaliens.com/?ref=5501789&game=7&pf=2
Otherwise, just look up Bitcoin Cash Giveaway in your app store. I recommend it, only if you have time to kill. You really won't earn much.
Earn crypto for reading & writing blogs at Publish0x -- *https://www.publish0x.com?a=9wdL8l1pdj*
https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/i-dont-know-what-its-called-but-this-token-will-apparently-1-xpzrxml
Semi-deep dive on a new alt-coin I stumbled upon.
I Don't Know What It's Called, But This Token Will Apparently 10x or 1000x
**What is it?**
Is it called "TEN x THOUSAND x" or "ten times a thousand" or what?
Just kidding. It actually appears to be called "X Token" and it's not the first project to bear that name:
https://xtoken.market/
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/x/
https://twitter.com/xtoken_official
Hopefully this one is more successful than the aforementioned X tokens. The official website is https://10x1000x.com/ and it boasts that it's going to moon. That's always a good sign. On a serious note, I stumbled upon this project from a PTC ad on Cointiply tonight. It took me to a YouTube video, in which a crypto-influencer is pumping X Token. http://cointiply.com/r/ND51K8
**What is X Token?**
It's an ERC20 token, based on the Ethereum chain. This is actually kind of unique for tokens I see being pumped about, which are usually based on the Binance Smart Chain. But regardless, X Token claims to be 100% owned by the community. It seems to be a bit misleading to me, making it seem like none of the creators/developers will be holding any tokens. But then, by their own FAQ, they state that they will be buying during the pre-sale.
I do suppose technically they aren't lying, as the team is of course part of the community.
X is a utility token. We are building a DeFi ecosystem, and X will be an irreplaceable backbone of this ecosystem. X token will be used to pay for everything from transactions to fees.
**What's Happening Now?**
The pre-sale tokens went for $0.00011, from November 17 to 25.
The "launchpad" phase is under way now, with tokens selling for $0.00022, ending on November 30.
The final pre-listing sale will be open the entire month of December, with the token price increasing to $0.00044
X is expected to be listed on decentralized exchanges, sometime in 2023. Uniswap, SushiSwap, and 1inch have been named as exchanges where the coin will be available.
Also planned for next year are the following:
Introduction of Web3 Staking Protocols
Additional utility purposes for X Token announced
NFT Marketplace and Metaverse introduction
Subsequent development of NFT Marketplace & Metaverse
**Who is Behind X Token?**
Nobody knows, as the team has chosen to remain anonymous. As they state, "X was created by Greek Gods, a little bit of good spirit, and a tale."
**So What?**
To me, it's really just a gamble buying into pre-sales like this one. Back in August, I had written how I was quite skeptical of Tamadoge (link to my post) -- the token could have been bought sub-penny and it eventually surged to 18 cents briefly before coming back down to 2 cents. I'm not saying that X Token has no chance, but the description and utility of the coin is a bit more vague than Tamadoge. Still, 10x1000x has garnered some exposure from the YouTube video I first mentioned in this post: https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/token-in-focus-whats-the-deal-with-tamadoge-tama-xpzpkgp
https://youtu.be/Q6yRlHLSwBY
*Nothing about this blog post constitutes financial advice and should not be interpreted as such. I am not a financial advisor, just a rocket enthusiast.*
*Originally posted on* https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/i-dont-know-what-its-called-but-this-token-will-apparently-1-xpzrxml
Join Publish0x and earn free crypto for reading and/or writing via my affiliate link - https://www.publish0x.com/?a=9wdL8l1pdj
What would it take for you to switch to a new crypto exchange?
https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/what-would-it-take-for-you-to-switch-to-a-new-exchange-xzgpgyw
What Would It Take For You to Switch to a New Exchange?
With the recent collapse of FTX and troubles at Genesis coming to light, one begins to wonder are any crypto exchanges really safe? Of course we know that the best place to store tokens is in a self-custody cold wallet, or so I am told. I see ads constantly for new exchanges. Why would anyone switch to a new exchange at this time?
It's actually all beginning to make sense to me now. Whenever I see an offer to try out a new crypto exchange, there is always some lofty sign up bonus or grandiose promise of interest earned on staked crypto. After watching the collapse of FTX, I understand why these new exchanges have to make such offers to attract new users. It seems to me that essentially they need to do this to maintain liquidity. I'm not exactly a financial scholar or crypto expert by any means, but I do know a little. Any given crypto exchange needs activity to remain afloat, and needs its users to keep a certain amount of crypto on the exchanges to remain liquid and allow future trades to happen. This is a gross over simplification but, from my understanding, the basic building blocks of how an exchange works.
So now when I see a new exchange advertise, offering $1,000 bonus for the first $10,000 deposit you make, I have a newfound curiosity as to where that money for the bonus is actually coming from and what is the actual financial state of the exchange. Unless in exchange is publicly traded, like Coinbase, company financials aren't necessarily readily available to the public. They are aren't legally required to be. But of course public disclosure doesn't equate to healthy finances. Case and point: now bankrupt Voyager, which was once touted to me by a friend as a "super safe" exchange.
So I pose the question: what would it take for you to try a new crypto exchange? Or would you avoid any new platforms as of right now?
Stairs to nowhere, they once led to a beautiful home
Why is LiteCoin cranking? Up nearly 30% today
https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/cathie-wood-and-ark-stand-by-call-for-dollar-1m-bitcoin-by-2-xddxnel
Do you think Bitcoin reaches a million dollars per token by 2030?
Cathie Wood & ARK stand by call for $1M Bitcoin by 2030
Cathie Wood is standing by her price target of $1 million per token, for Bitcoin by the year 2030. It may sound ridiculous to imagine that, especially right now. According to her, Bitcoin was supposed to hit $100,000 last year.
In an interview with Bloomberg today, she did mention that not only does she still believe in her long-term price target but also that Bitcoin is the most transparent of all cryptocurrencies. She added that the ecosystem, despite lots of selling pressure, is functioning beautifully.
One thing I have noticed about Wood when she speaks is that she always says "we" -- referring to her ARK Invest. She never says "I" or any first person pronoun. She chooses her words carefully. As for the price target they believe in, I really have to take that with a grain of salt. There is no telling what the price of anything will be a day, week, month, or year from now. I think that the ARK prediction of Bitcoin going to $1 million per token is more of a grandiose reaffirmation in their belief of the premier cryptocurrency. They are not Bitcoin maxies by any means but clearly they believe that Bitcoin is and will continue to be the dominant player in the cryptocurrency world. If you look up their previous estimates, you can see for yourself that continually increase from 100k to 200k to 500k to now 1M. When will the calls for 2M Bitcoin begin?
A million per token would put Bitcoin's total market cap at 21 trillion dollars. To me right now, that just seems quite unfathomable. I say let's get back to 50K before we start talking about a million.
FTX's Meltdown & Crypto Rebound On The Heels of Cooling Inflation
What a way the week has begun for the crypto world. It seemed as though things were alright when CZ announced that Binance would be buying out SBF's FTX to help out the troubled firm. The fact that FTX was even in trouble came as a huge shock to most. There were no signs. If there was any smoke I, like most others, missed it. So it seemed all would be well until CZ announced there were issues with FTX's balance sheet.
So now the FTX meltdown has begun. SBF is now under investigation by the SEC for potential securities law violations. Hundreds of millions, possibly billions, may be lost forever. Among FTX's largest backers:
Sequoia - $200 million
Temasek - $205 million
Paradigm - $215 million
Ontario Teachers' Pension - $80 million
Right now there's just so much uncertainty about the future. It's an ever-evolving situation, and if you're not constantly following it in real-time, you will miss the next chapter. The biggest losers in the FTX meltdown are reportedly the employees, who owned as much as $950 million worth of stock as of January 2022. That stock is now likely worthless.
What's remarkable to me is that there are still buyers of the FTX Token, which has even bounced 36% over the past 24 hours. How can anyone bet on that right now? It's very interesting to watch how the stock market and crypto market are interlaced. Major US stock indices got a major boost by a CPI print that suggested inflation is cooling and the economy is slowing. So, the Federal Reserve's recent rate hikes seem to be working and perhaps not as many further hikes are necessary to quell inflation back to the 2% target. The crypto market took a cue from this news too, as every token on my watch list is bigly in the green.
So is all the bad news priced in? Possibly, but things can still get worse if FTX customers and investors aren't getting any of their money back. Some say that it's a buying opportunity, as was the Mt. Gox hack in 2014. Both black swan events indeed; a turn of events that no one saw coming. There are lessons to be learned, however. First and foremost, it's best to keep your coins in self-custody wallets, NOT on exchanges. If I take away anything it's that no matter how trustworthy an exchange may seem, there's always a risk of insolvency.
It's been a really crazy 3 days in the crypto world. From FTX's meltdown to today's rebound, where do we go from here?
https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/ftxs-meltdown-and-cryptos-rebound-amid-cooled-cpi-print-xddqzrd
Latest update on Origin Materials, now partnered with Emerson
https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/origin-materials-and-emerson-partner-for-digitalization-and-xmygkze
One of my favorite companies that I follow may be announcing some big news soon
https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/origin-materials-10-days-from-q3-earnings-report-xrgpoym
Origin Materials Draws Near Q3 Earnings Call, First Plant Update
We learned this past week the much anticipated date of the next earnings report for Sacramento-based Origin Materials. After the market close on Thursday, November 3rd 2022 the company will host its quarterly earnings call. Yes, it's hard to believe that's only ten days away. What's even more hard to believe is that all throughout the third quarter, the company issued a total of four other press releases. The news was as follows:
Origin Materials Co-CEOs to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences
Origin Materials Co-CEO to Speak at Goldman Sachs Global Sustainability Forum
Origin Materials Wins 2022 Alternative Fuels & Chemicals Coalition Global Biobased Economy Performance Award
Origin Materials Co-Founder and Co-CEO to Speak at Advanced Bioeconomy Leadership Conference NEXT 2022
A very quiet three months, arguably. That's not to say there hasn't been anything going on. In fact, as we will no doubt learn about on the call, construction on the Origin 1 facility in Sarnia, Ontario continues. Thanks to some reconnaissance posted by a curious investor, we can see progress:
There it is, in the Arlanxeo Bio-Industrial Park. All credit for the image goes to Eddie Broccolini's original tweet. It is quite difficult to speculate just how close it is to being completed, but here is a comparison that another savy investor put together: https://twitter.com/eddiebroccolini/status/1580247054248398848
This collage is courtesy of Cardano Fish of Twitter. From everything that can be seen from this angle, it appears that all the pieces are in placed when you compare to the concept art from a 2021 investor presentation: https://twitter.com/ADAFish14/status/1580267998966751233
Perhaps some further finishing of the process building and of course what does or doesn't lie behind the modules and feedstock silo. It would be easy to continue speculating on just how close to completion the facility is. *The Sarnia Journal* even alludes to it in their most recent article, Origin Materials wins award as plant construction wraps up. As has been the official word from all prior earnings reports, "mechanical completion expected by the end of 2022, a company spokesman told The Journal." Let's not forget that though module erection was completed ahead of time, the timeline for mechanical completion has remained the same over the past 18 months: https://thesarniajournal.ca/origin-materials-wins-award-as-plant-construction-wraps-up/
**Recent Analyst Price Targets**
In the month of October, Credit Suisse has initiated coverage on Origin Materials and Bank of America has provided an updated price target.
Credit Suisse has assigned an "outperform" rating to the stock, meaning they believe that the stock "will produce a better rate of return than similar companies, but the stock may not be the best performer in the index." They have assigned an initial price target of $7, based on 17x 2026e EBITDA and state that the downside risks include "delays in startup or inability to scale technology, competition from much larger incumbents, and potential shortfalls in customer interest in carbon negative products." The first two reasons risks are no surprise, but for a company that boasts a $1 trillion total addressable market and so many companies making net-zero pledges, it seems a bit ridiculous that there would be "shortfalls in customer interest" but I suppose there always an outside chance for something like that.
Bank of America updated its coverage on the stock, after one of its analysts took a tour of the O1 facility construction site. The analyst stated that the tour "increased conviction of commercialization by mid-2023" and stated that the plant is "nearly completed." Clearly impressed with the progress in Sarnia and the company's outlook, an updated price target of $9 has been assigned while maintaining the "buy" rating.
For what it's worth, these analyst price targets suggest a 36-75% upside in the stock, from the closing price of $5.14 on 10/21/22.
**So Wen Earnings?**
Q3 earnings will be released after the close of the market on November 3, 2022. A conference call will follow, starting at 5pm EST.
Interested investors and other parties can listen to a webcast of the live conference call by logging onto the Investor Relations section of the Company's website at https://investors.originmaterials.com.
The conference call can be accessed live over the phone by dialing 1-888-999-3182 (domestic) or +1-848-280-6330 (international). A telephonic replay will be available approximately two hours after the call by dialing 1-844-512-2921, or for international callers, +1-412-317-6671. The conference ID for the live call and pin number for the replay is 11152434. The replay will be available until 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on November 17, 2022.
Origin management will incorporate responses to a selection of shareholders’ frequently asked questions during the webcast. Shareholders are invited to submit questions via the investor relations email address: ir@originmaterials.com. Please include the hashtag **#askorigin** in the subject line. Questions will be accepted beginning today through October 27, 2022.
Please note that I originally published this article on Publish0x - https://www.publish0x.com/rocketenthusiast/origin-materials-10-days-from-q3-earnings-report-xrgpoym
@RocketEnthusiast
