Serious advice from China on COVIC-19 prevention
《Chinese Version中文版》 https://www.weibo.com/ttarticle/p/show?id=2309404480416307347519
China has managed to put COVIC-19 under control through effective procedures and strong organizational capabilities. If the European and US governments continue to combat COVIC-19 the wrong way (especially because of the lack of masks, advising healthy civilians to not wear face masks), **worst case scenario will occur when the consequences of the virus outbreak is comparable to Spanish flu of 1918–infecting 50% of the world's population, killing 2.5%~5% of the world's population.**
1、COVIC-19 bears significant differences from SARS
a、SARS is only infectious when patients develop clear and definite symptoms of cough and fever
b、COVIC-19 is infectious during the incubation period, which does not necessarily result in symptom of fever
c、Some COVIC-19 patients still carry the virus and can infect others after they are treated and cured (asymptomatic)
Therefore, **it is much more difficult to prevent and control COVIC-19 than SARS, as it is almost impossible to prevent by detecting fever symptoms and tracking the transmission of infection**.
2、Death Toll of COVIC-19
Is the death rate 0.5% or 5%？It depends on whether the hospital is overloaded. Let's take a look at the data.
**The mortality rate in Wuhan is much higher than in other regions, mainly due to the hospital being overloaded.**
For a critically ill COVIC-19 patient, his survival basically solely depends on whether he has access to a ventilator and pure oxygen.
Which leads to,
a、low infection rate × low mortality rate in areas with good epidemic prevention (in some areas away from Hubei Province in China, death toll of COVIC-19 is even lower than the number of deaths caused by traffic accidents).
b、high infection rate × high mortality rate in areas with poor epidemic prevention (may be 100 times worse than Wuhan with 50% of the population infected, and 5% patient death rate).
Let's graphically：
3、It is essential to wear face masks
Wearing the face mask can not only protect yourself from the virus, but also can ensure that the patient do not infect others even at the incubation period. I’d like to stress again that the COVID-19 carrier shows no symptom of fever or cough during the incubation period, who looks like a health person but is contagious. Therefore, **it is essential for every “look healthy” person to wear a face mask to prevent the incubatory carrier from spreading the disease**.
The counties that do not advocate face mask wearing for all its civilians are likely to become poor epidemic prevention areas. Some may wonder: what if there are not enough masks for everyone? This very concern is the particular reason why European and US governments have only asked for infected patients to wear masks.
The problem of face mask shortage can be easily solved by **ensuring there is one face mask for every civilian**, and it can be reused after disinfecting procedures with dry heat or ultraviolet rays (not to spray the face mask with alcohol or to wash it).
The simple method of dry heat sterilization can be done by putting the face mask in a sealed, leak-proof container, then boil it in water for 10-20 minutes.
Does the face mask become less effective with reuse? **Yes it does, for sure. However, it can still significantly block main transmission channels including droplets** (especially if the patient wears it). From a mathematical point of view, masks can significantly lower R0, the basic reproduction number of the infection. **We do not have to bring R0 to 0, as long as it is reduced from 2~3 to less than 1 (1 patient infects less than 1 person), the disease will not spread**.
4. Wrong practice of stay-in quarantine
European and US governments are repeating an early mistake of Wuhan, which is to allow patients with minor symptoms to conduct the quarantine at their own home when the hospital reaches its full capacity (Italy has begun to repeat this mistake). The average civilians have no way of knowing how to use fans to create negative pressure quarantine environment (nor are they likely to create an effective one even if they attempt to). **Having the patient living in a room at home = no isolation effect, which means, minor symptoms in one person = infection of the whole family and even neighbors from the same floor and the same community.**
The improvement of the situation in Wuhan began with the creation of module hospitals. Module hospital is a special kind of hospital with a large number of beds, which is urgently established to quarantine the mild patients. **Module hospitals are mainly used for quarantine purpose instead of treatment**, there is a handful of medical personnel and facilities, if the mild patients become severely ill, they will be transferred to hospital for further treatment.
**Wuhan has transformed a large number of module hospitals from public facilities (gymnasiums, schools, etc.), putting a large number of minor symptom patients under quarantine speedily, cutting off the family infection route, and making the turning point of COVIC-19 inflection in Wuhan.**
5、Conclusion
The conclusion is simple: **face masks for all, wash your hands frequently + be sure to get tested if there is any symptom + quarantine in shelter hospitals when minor symptoms are shown. Along with cessation of large-scale gatherings, it is sufficient to reduce basic reproduction number R0 to lower than 1 and stop the outbreak.** These procedures are not complicated. It mainly depends on efficiency of governmental organization and implementation.
Areas that are severely infected by the virus should be locked down in quarantine in order to timely stop the virus spread. For areas with minor infections, all work and social activities should continue except for large-scale assemblies and gatherings (in order to avoid greater economic loss).
European and US governments lag far behind China in terms of organizational capabilities. China managed to build two infectious disease hospitals with thousands of beds in 8 days, the same might be expected to be accomplished by Europe or US in 8 weeks if things go well. **The prevention and treatment of infectious disease is an objective math problem, the final score matters not which political tendency or religious beliefs you hold, it matters only the right practice you take**.
China scored 90 points in solving this math problem at a cost of national lockout for more than a month. I don’t expect the European and US governments could combat COVIC-19 with a score of 90, but please make sure to get at least the passing score: 60 points. Please don’t waste China’s effort and sacrifices, please don’t let the COVID-19 become another version of the Spanish flu.
If you’re reading this, **please call your district senator and have them prompt the government to stop the epidemic the right way: comprehensive testing, establishment of module hospitals, and minor symptom patient quarantine. Most importantly, make sure to wear a face mask, even if it is sterilized and reused.**
If your area discriminates against or even attacks people who wear face masks, you can wrap a scarf outside the mask to cover it up.
Total Cases outside of China https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-distribution-outside-china
BCH miner donation plan update again
It will start by the hash voting, if 2/3 of network hash agrees, the donation plan will be put into effect. (I believe the miners have right to vote on how to spend their output).
For the 5% of the coinbase donated by miners, the miners shall have the option, at their sole discretion, to select a number of donation objects, such as: General Foundation, ABC, BCHD, Electrion Cash.
The donation plan will last for 6 months (as one version is valid for a maximum period of 6 months). I suggest that we stop the fund raising after 6 months, and we may restart it eventually to prevent it becoming a permanent rule.
There are numerous objections now, I am inclined to start the donation plan after that the community reaches a basic agreement. If they fail to achieve it, we could set up the General Foundation first, let’s see its operation effect funding by donation, then we could proceed the hash voting next time.
BCH miner donation plan update
I apologize, the East-Asia region is currently on Spring festival holidays, and Wuhan has been experiencing a severe coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, we have spent a lot of time tracking this epidemic and purchasing medical supplies, as the result, I could not respond to your discussion in a timely manner and I apologize once again.
Firstly, there is a culture misunderstanding in communication, **"No debate" does not mean : "I refuse to discuss with you" or "I do not accept your opinion", but rather "let us stop debating and give it a try, if the test turns out positive, we continue, otherwise we stop".**
As I answered in the AMA, many parts of the donation plan have not been fixed but are under discussion. Here are some fruit of the recent discussion: my views are as the following (I need to exchange ideas with other mining pools)：
1、Donate mechanism
Let's start with the final step: the miners will donate directly to the development projects. **The miners will directly send part of their coinbase to the projects they wants to donate**, for example, miner X can direct n% of his coinbase to address of the project A, direct m% of his coinbase to the address of the project B.
The benefit of this approach would be the removal of the companies--the donation receipients may lead to the centralization. Indeed, **I still recommend setting up one (or various) foundation(s), we may refer to the ETH foundation that I think they are working well**. If the miner does not know to which project to donate, he can donate to the foundation, or direct to each project by refering to the foundation's fund allocation ratio.
2、Fundation will run for a pilot period
**Before the donation plan kicks off, the BCH Miner Fund will be established** and be ready to accept the donations from miners, as well as from other non-miner individuals and corporations. **The Foundation will run for a pilot period to show the effect to the community**, while the decision-making power of the Foundation will be determinated by the votes of donors in proportion to their donated funds.
**Therefore, a sound competition mechanism has been established, all the projects (including more than one foundation) must work hard**, ensure the full public disclosure and transparency of their business finance, in order to earn more support and donation from the community(miners and non-miners).
3、No donation option
What if some miners believe that none of these projects are good, or they don't have willingness to donate, or some projects don't accept donations? **To avoid the tragedy of the commons, they has the right to send this part of coinbase to BCH Black Hole address to destroy these coins** -- this is in fact a donation to all BCH holders.
4、Decide the donation approach
One of reasons for the objection of the previous plan was that many people thought that plan was the secret decision without public discussion. Hence, **I hope that the plan could start in another way -- Hashrate voting**. Some people may argue that miners do not have the right to vote on the matters that concern the whole community, but I think that the miners have at least the right to vote on how to spend their coinbase production.
**I wish a 3-month miners vote could be conducted and completed (miners can use bmp.virtualpool.com to vote), if 2/3 of the hashpower votes are in favor of the donation plan, then I hope that developers can include the donation plan (sending to project or sending to BCH Black Hole address) as part of the protocal upgrade in May 2020**, if there is not enough time, then include the plan in the protocal upgrade in November 2020. This funding will last for 6 months until next upgrade.
5、How to vote through the plan
Certainly some people may doubt that how the one third of the hashpower get a two-third majority vote? It is not difficult, it depends on how many people are willing to pay a price for BCH.
At present, there are a lot of anonymous BCH miners whose hashpower sometimes account for half of the total network, however most of these anonymous miners actually come form the Poolin (Poolin.com), they mine BCH only when its profit is higher. Therefore, **as long as we mine at a loss and control the BCH mining profit slightly lower than BTC mining profit, those anonymous miners who thinks of nothing but making money will not mine BCH.**
6、What will I do
I personally hold 3500 P hashpower, and I can also influence almost 10,000P hashpower, so that the total hashpower amount will be sufficient. In consideration of that BCH mining may sometimes loss money, and I am one of the shareholders of BTC.TOP mining pool, I can not ask the company to loss money as I wish. As a result, **I will allocate my personal hashpower to a new mining pool (D.TOP), please do not suprise when you see this new mining pool appears and accounts for a higher percentage : )**
In addition, if there is a next vote, I will vote against the donation to ensure that the donation will stop at the next version 6 months after the donation. Further development will be decided by the community.
7、Miners' donation ratio
The 12.5% is the opinion of other mining pools. From my prospective, this ratio is too high, considering the incoming bull market in 2020-2021/22, the BCH price will rise sharply. Therefore, **I believe by the middle or the end of 2020, the 2-3% of the donation ratio is sufficient, the 1% probably be sufficient in 2021.**
8、Welcome to vote and donate
I hope all miners who care the long-term development of BCH to participate in the voting, **only those votes having cost (the BCH mining profit is slightly lower that the BTC mining during the vote) will be truely valid.** If the final result is negative, I'd be happy to accept.
9、Why BCH needs miners donation plan
It's very simple, each project developed by BCH requires funds, and the donations from the BCH companies are not enough which may cause the slow development of BCH. For example, the ABC mainly relies on donations from a few companies, and these companies wish that the BCH projects could be sustainable and they intend to gradually reduce the funding.
**A decentralized community, cannot rely on centralized companies' donation for a long time, the Blockstream and Core are the best counter-example**. If the BCH can sucessfully realize the decentralized donation, permitting the decentralized miners to donate different development teams according to their wish, then the BCH will be ahead of other coins.
10. I am glad to see that everbody makes comments on the donation plan
I have been reading everyone's opinion, for instance, this article was publiched on read.cash(rather than on medium.com). **I hold a lot of BCH, and I hope the future of BCH is better.**
Above is my statement for my opinion, there are many things that need to be discussed by the community. Again, thanks to all of you for reading and sharing opinions : )
@Jiang_Zhuoer_BTC.TOP_CEO
