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S2F or S2FX? 3 or 6 or Alternating?

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Avatar for warliezdiaz
Written by   25
2 months ago

There are currently two models being relied on by Bitcoin supporters as to its possible trajectory.

First is the stock-to-flow (S2F) model which was first published by Plan B back in early 2019. This model which was well-received by many predicts that Bitcoin will reach more or less USD 100K by end of 2021.

The other one is the stock-to-flow cross asset (S2FX) model which predicts that Bitcoin will reach more or less USD 288K by end of year. This was met with some doubt especially as to where the investments that will be injected to Bitcoin will be coming from. Nevertheless, some asserted that this is entirely possible if not by December, by the first quarter of 2022.

In addition to these projections are some debates on how many months more remain for this bull cycle. Majority assert another 3 months for Bitcoin or until the end of this year followed by another month or two for altcoins. This brings us until February 2022. While some assert a prolonged bull cycle or another 6 months for Bitcoin followed by another month or two for altcoins. This brings us until March 2022 for Bitcoin and until May for altcoins.

There are few who assert that we are starting to depart from the usual four-year cycle to one which is alternating. The alternating model predicts that Bitcoin will go into another bull cycle for six months followed by bearish months which could last between three to six months. If this works out, another crash similar to what happened last May will happen again by March or April of 2022 followed by another run up on the third quarter of 2022.

The S2F or S2FX model seems to go well with the projection of remaining 3 months of bull cycle for Bitcoin or until the end of this year followed by another month or two for altcoins. However, there is a clear disconnect when it comes to the assertion of a prolonged bull cycle and that of the alternating model. Still there are few who are trying to use either S2F or S2FX model by getting the top price projection only and fitting it with either the prolonged or alternating model.

So far, the current bull cycle is a mirror of that of 2013. One thing for sure, the next three to six months will be life changing especially to those who are holding Bitcoin and top altcoins especially layer 1 coins. If the May crash has taught us something, that is giving more value to coins and tokens with great tech and use cases. The rise of Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Cosmos, Near, Tezos, Celo, Polkadot and Fantom are proof to this.

(This is not a financial or investment advice. I posted this as a opinion. This is unedited and was posted immediately, pardon the errors in grammar, spelling and constructions.)

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Avatar for warliezdiaz
Written by   25
2 months ago
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