I was easily getting 10 Silver chests just by playing in between 90-100% Capture Rate, so far this season. Today I had to go all the way to 80% ECR to be able to get 5 Gold Chests. I had started at 99% ECR. Could be related to being in Gold III, and the progress being slower than if I was Gold I. But damn, these babies are so much harder to get, in comparison...
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Well it had to do with the league, I think. When I got down to Bronze at the beginning of the season, I got bronze chests like crazy, around 12 every single time. But as soon as I get into Silver III, I began earning silver chests very slowly until I reach Silver I, when I resume my regular daily chest quantity. I don't know if it's something similar.