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Why Bitcoin Isn't Over $200k

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Written by   261
1 month ago

There is a feeling in the bitcoin market of anticipation. Have you been able to feel it?  November and December were supposed to be the months that sent bitcoin straight up towards the moon in-terms of price movement.  But instead, the price has been moving sideways and even slightly down.  Of course there are those out there who have panicked and declared that this bitcoin bull market concluded with a double top.  No one knows for sure what will happen, and yet, that is the exciting part.  As I mentioned before, the price has been moving sideways for quite a while now, which means the coil that is bitcoin's price, is being squeezed and squeezed until that built up pressure will eventually be released.  And I believe that will be happening sooner than later.

Now don't get me wrong, this doesn't mean that the price will only go up, it could also go down as well.  But, I'm more of the opinion that things will move upwards.  Bitcoin began the year on fire, quickly moving from around $20k all the way to around $65 in about a month and a half.  People had become extremely bullish and began putting out very bullish end-of-year price predictions.  These predictions were so bullish that even a EOY price of $100k had become a bearish prediction. Instead, we were seeing predictions of $200k, $300k, $400k, and even some insane ones were people thought bitcoin had a chance to reach $1 million.  The theory of a bitcoin "super cycle" began to increase in popularity.  Of course those were only predictions, and even the most knowledgable people dealing with charts, and involved in macro, still cannot promise what the price of bitcoin will be.

I will fully admit that at the beginning of the year, I was also believing some of these predictions.  And why not? We had already reached $60k in February.  It felt reasonable that we would at least see bitcoin increase to $200k by the end of the year.  My theory is that if bitcoin was left uninterrupted, it definitely would be above that price today.  But it wasn't left uninterrupted, and actually faced some of the largest obstacles that has ever had to fend off. The important thing is that it keeps surviving.

While some people blame Elon Musk for bitcoin's price initially dropping in May.  That was just a red herring and what actually caused the drop was fear and over-leverage.  People were becoming too bullish and thought that bitcoin may never drop below $50k again.  And then the ESG FUD began, and it spread.  It was being talked about by everyone.  Even regular people who knew next to nothing about bitcoin had been fed the information that bitcoin was destroying the world and had to be avoided at all costs.  And so the price dropped.  People were too over-leveraged and the price continued to drop.

But almost every time there were dumps, bitcoin did well to recover. Although, it was interesting to see that each and every time bitcoin was surging upwards, it was hit with a new round of FUD. Almost as if they were planned attacks. But that is a topic for a conspiracy article that I will write some other time. Even extremely old news that we had already seen, had been recycled and given out to the media. The China ban, double spend FUD, USA government regulation, and the list goes on.  We also finally saw a huge exodus of bitcoin mining exiting China.  While at the time, people were worried about the drop in hash rate and health of the blockchain, but overall I think that will be a bullish event as we look back on it in the past.

And finally we have the virus.  This is the black swan event that no one could have predicted years ago and it keeps affecting the financial markets.  Even just last week, bitcoin was on the verge of breaking $60k and potentially marching back towards new all-time highs. But just as it was doing so, the new variant was discovered and so the prices tanked.  Bitcoin doesn't stop though, and it rose back up again.  But then Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Financial Reserve, spoke up that inflation was not transitory.  This of course caused the financial markets to tank again.  Once again, bitcoin is beginning its fight to march upwards once again.

Bitcoin has had to go against more narratives than it has at any other point in its life.  This time, because of the virus, it is something that has come out of no where and cannot be controlled.  With that said, each day that bitcoin survives and new blocks are minted.  That means that bitcoin has become a little stronger and that is a reason to be bullish.  These challenges are exactly what bitcoin needs.  You wouldn't want to have a world currency that hasn't overcome any challenges and hasn't been tested before.  In the past, only one of those above FUD movements could have meant the end of the bull run.  Yet this time, it only took bitcoin a few weeks to recover.  That is something to be very bullish about.

The world is different than before, and so I don't see any reason why we should expect this bitcoin bull run to act the same as all the ones before it.  Many people believe that the end of this run will occur in either December or January.  Like I mentioned, I believe that covid has changed everything. Instead, this market will be extended and it might take longer to reach those price heights that we all hope to see.  In the end, this could actually be a bullish thing.  The slower we go up, we are able to build up more price support than if we had moved up with parabolic movements. 

Either way, it is exciting to wake up each day and see what will happen in this market.

 

What do you think? Why didn't bitcoin move up in price like many expected?  What's your price prediction for next year?

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Written by   261
1 month ago
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Comments

Bitcoin is actually the thing that made a name in crypto...but you gave a good suggestion to not invest you livings or savings...because the last candle drop in crypto made me realize that it is just a risk to put your savings in crypto...thanx bro

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1 month ago

On all counts I wish I had an answer. The problem for me is that Bitcoin, and frankly any cryptocurrency feels like it lacks a fundamental analysis 'option.' Option is used for lack of a better word in describing making an analysis as to price movements. And I think that is why so many price predictions are not reliable overall.

The thing is, when I see price predictions on any of these coins, I find them mostly baseless. They are predictions made through technical analysis, and frankly wild guesses, none of which from my personal experience in the stock market have a thing to do with why something moves up or down or are even reliable predictors of what their movements will be.

It may be that I simply lack some of the understanding of crypto.

But the thing is, when I evaluate a stock there are any number of things I can look at to get a good snapshot of what the price, or value of a share should be and where it should go. There's of course products and revenue, margins, price to earnings, debt to income, EBITDA, production capacity, cash on hand, and so many other things I can look at to not only determine the price but also determine the 'health' of the company, and even the value or deficit of its assets such as buildings, equipment, employees etc.

None of this can be considered when it comes to crypto. Because essentially it is currency, and currency is not something that produces anything. It is simply a means of conducting transactions on things already produced. It is only as good as its ability to conduct transactions.

Where do I SEE Bitcoin? Ultimately higher. But it would entirely be a guess to say how high it can go. There are a lot of things at play—including its relative youth as a currency. It still suffers usability issues, and fees to use it are still keeping it a bit out of the realm of practicality and utility.

I think Bitcoin continues to be a valuable part of anyone's portfolio, but I would never recommend anyone put their life savings into it as an investment. No more than 5% in TOTAL for all crypto would be my recommendation, with Bitcoin being a part of that total 5%.

The other consideration regarding the age of crypto is "how do we know it will be around in 10 years?" In other words, it is untested as an asset or financial tool. It likely WILL be around in 10 years. But there are MANY, many unknowns we have yet to determine. How will government ultimately receive it, and how or will it be regulated, will major businesses ever actually adopt it, will the end user base actually be interested in it—only 4% of the world population even owns crypto right now—and how can digital currency actually evolve and work in the future.

Without knowing the details, guessing and going all in is probably the worst financial decision anyone can ever make.

And I say all of this being a believer in crypto. But level heads must also prevail IMO.

That all said, ultimately ANY price prediction IMO is a simple guess or hope or wishful thinking. I don't think anyone actually knows because ultimately I don't think the necessary information is available to actually value it. Even when it comes to fiat, I can find its value based on a lot of information that is simply not there when it comes to crypto.

Just my two cents.

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1 month ago