The Risk-Free Rate and the Chinese incursion in the Philippine Sea
The Risk-Free Rate and the Chinese incursion in the Philippine Sea. All countries carry Risk-Free rated U.S. paper in their Treasuries. Depending on how risk-averse their management is this paper makes up a decent portion of the countries nest egg. Now, the U.S. is heavily in debt to China, Japan, and certain Middle Eastern countries. What if a local low-intensity war were to break out in the Philippine Sea and the U.S. would inform China that they're not going to pay their debt because: China started the war, China has a bad human rights record vs. Muslims and Christians, their President prefers Soccer over Football... China has an untested navy and is inferior to the U.S. tactical prowess in the region. They would most likely come out of a naval confrontation heavily damaged and the U.S. would refuse to pay the trillions it owes China. Sure there would be some volatility in financial markets but that would soon go away as everyone would realize that the world needs a reserve currency. Hence, the risk-free interest-rate paper does not really exist and it might actually be in America's interest to fight a short small war in the Pacific. Be well, be safe..
No comments yet