@francis105d1 6 February 2026 more from that month

Bitcoin Cash: A Long-Term Thesis Still Awaiting Its Breakout. This article is a follow-up to my previous views on Bitcoin Cash. The goal is to demonstrate that my current outlook is not merely a response to recent market conditions, but a thesis that has been developing over several months. Bitcoin Cash analysis: Still Waiting for a Breakthrough Amid Bearish Pressure. https://read.cash/@francis105d1/bitcoin-cash-analysis-still-waiting-for-a-breakthrough-amid-bearish-pressure-243a2328

**Price Action: A Break Without Conviction.** From a technical perspective, Bitcoin Cash did manage to break its long-term blue downtrend line. However, that breakout failed to deliver a meaningful upside expansion. Price couldn’t even break above the $700 level, which suggests this move merely formed a higher low rather than signaling a true trend reversal. On a long-term timeframe, any price action below the all-time high still qualifies as either a double top at best or simply another lower high. The lack of strong volume on the breakout reinforces this view. Even nearly a decade after the split, Bitcoin Cash still appears to be weighed down by persistent “fork-era” sellers. Bitcoin’s Weakness and Market Risk Bitcoin itself has turned bearish, breaking below both the 200-day moving average and the weekly Gaussian Channel. The final confirmation would be the Gaussian Channel turning red, which would firmly place Bitcoin in a bear market. If that happens, the broader market is likely to follow—and Bitcoin Cash would not be immune.

**Bitcoin Cash and the Gaussian Channel** At the moment, Bitcoin Cash remains inside the green zone of the weekly Gaussian Channel and has not broken below it yet. That said, I believe it is only a matter of time before BCH aligns with the overall market trend. A key level to watch is around $360, where a breakdown could signal a shift to bearish momentum. If Bitcoin Cash follows current market sentiment, a move below $360 becomes increasingly plausible. In a confirmed bear market, this would imply that the recent cycle peak failing to reach $700 was a significant weakness.

**Bear Market Scenarios** Under a full bear cycle, Bitcoin Cash could trade in a wide range between $100 and $700. More concerning is the lack of higher highs during this cycle, which could make the next bear market especially brutal. In a worst-case scenario, price could even fall below previous all-time lows, potentially dipping under $80. **CashTokens: Still Too Early** CashTokens remains in its infancy, and unfortunately, adoption has not met my expectations so far. The next market cycle may offer better conditions if CashTokens projects continue building throughout a harsh bear market. In that sense, the bear market could act as a natural filter, separating projects with real long-term value from those without a future in the ecosystem. **Liquidity and Adoption Concerns** Looking ahead, I hope the next cycle brings clearer adoption and significantly better liquidity, particularly for mUSD and BCH pairs. Liquidity exceeding 10,000 BCH or more should be the minimum target. If even official pairs struggle to attract meaningful liquidity, it may indicate that CashTokens is failing to engage BCH holders at a fundamental level. Let alone attract interest in higher-risk or “degen” tokens, whether they have utility or not.