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Note: The following article is not finantial advice and is just speculative forecasting, although I am personally convinced of what you will read, I don't know the future, and many things can occur that will effect a different outcome for BTC, do your own research.
Let me tell you right off the bat, I am not a bitcoin maximalist, I don't think that only bitcoin matters and that every other coin is a scam, in fact, I profoundly despise that miopic, nonsensical, tribalistic position, I am not part of the #numbergoup club, I am not obssesed with bitcoin price charting.
Having said that, let me get this out of my chest.
Do not sell your bitcoin, like, ever.
Not even if it goes to 100k
Not even if it goes to 1 million
Yes, you hear that right, let me explain why (and of course, this is just what I will do, you do you. Not finantial advice.)
Miners will sell directly to Wall Street hedge funds
Most retail will unload it's bags at 100k, and that includes most crypto influencers
This might occur in late 2021, in the hype of the bull run, now at that stage everyone will just wait that who-knows sell bitcoin and thus coins will become available for us to buy after a rebound, something like:
Bitcoin goes to 120k
People (who?) sell at that price
Price drops at 35k, which becomes the next floor price and bear market begins
That's the idea, that's the "plan"
But if you see deeper, if you scratch the surface, you realize that that narrative is highly (I mean, extremely highly) improbable.
After the supply shock, after coinbase hits you with a message like "we have liquidity shortage of btc" after the euphoria, sure, retail will sell, even perhaps some people who owns 1k bitcoins, might sell.
And then?, what happens next?
Then the price will NOT go down, those coins will be almost instantly swallowed by some random billionaire.
Once even strong hands sell and only mega-billionaires and wall street stays, BTC might become the next serious contender to gold.
And we will get this scenario.
From 100k it might go to 200k, since billionaires would be outbidding each other for coins, like a bloody fight but with unlimited black credit cards instead of knifes.
I mean, who wants to be the only billionaire without a single BTC once it becomes the dominant global currency?
"Oh, you don't have bitcoin? ewww, only stocks? Oh dear"
Do not believe me? check out this video that tracked the biggest KNOWN holders of bitcoin and then tell me that these guys (who sometimes already have billions) will sell just to do 3x their return on a 100 million dollar purchase, and after that risking getting locked out of the party.
These guys already have money coming out of their nostrils, so, even though they do like to make even more money (greed is a cruel mistress) is not JUST about that.
This will not be about 1x or 2x or 3x, this will be about what entity controls the winning global currency network and the next world reserve currency.
This is about power, global power.
Bitcoin is the next dollar, the next gold.
Is that big (at least)
These guys (the billionaires) will not day trade, but will use bitcoin as collateral and peg to some other assets, like the gold standard but with cryptography.
And therefore at some point (that might be sooner than everyone thinks) bitcoin will be unavailable.
Gone, finito, over.
Coinbase will not have it.
Binance wil retire the spot exchange feature for BTC/USDT
It will be gone and used like gold, stored in a physical vault with military grade security, this is actually already happening, look it up.
Once that happends, your window of opportunity to own it will be gone.
If coinbase pro keeps some it will have minimum order requirements of 1 million dollars, plus some extreme fees and KYC with fingerprinting, to avoid money laundering, wink, wink ;)
It will become the sandbox of the megarich.
So, having said that, and with the price of bitcoin-of-the-future going on a pump that doesn't ends, I get if you think the following:
"If I don't sell, what's the fun or gain in having bitcoin in the first place, how will I buy my lambo?"
First, stop thinking like a degen day trader and start thinking like a share holder in the federal reserve.
You own a piece of that pie, now, what the pie can do?
UFFFF, many things, but just for starters:
Bonds: Some company will have a bond in which they group some assets like mortgages, and in that bond they will include some amount of bitcoin, those bonds then can be bought and sold, (that's the second hand "bitcoin" that normies will buy in 2022) and all of that will increase the apetite for bitcoin amongst corporations and goverments, imagine being the only loser company that cannot have a bitcoin-backed bond? Do you really think that Coca Cola will allow itself to suffer such humiliation?
Goverment Bonds: Specially useful for countries in Africa (zimbawe anyone?) they will do bonds backed with bitcoin and thus investors will be more willing to drop money to those goverments.
No bitcoin? no bonds of this class.
Can you imagine when goverments, both big and small start competing for bitcoin? you have never seen a geopolitical bull run, but if you stay alive just a little bit, you will see one.
Bitcoin Yield Farming: Think something like, wrapped bitcoin on the ethereum network and getting stable APY's of 3000% paid out in DAI, only accessible to bitcoin hodlers.
Bitcoin Loans: Deposit bitcoin in a decentralized smart contract protocol and get 90% of your bitcoin in current value, receive DAI, pay out your debt without deadline, get your bitcoin back, rinse and repeat, just that each time bitcoin is worth more, do you really want to sell all of those opportunities?
Airdrops for Bitcoin Adresses: New crypto coin is out, (promising or not, doesn't really matter) and team gives free coins to bitcoin adress since those are the rich demographic in cryptoland, expect this more and more, free money just for being in the alpha group.
Bitcoin Black Market: Some retail investors, realizing their mistake will want bitcoin at any price, even if it's at 400k although the "official" price is at 100k, expect pools of sellers dividing up the insane markups or creating aditional finantial instruments out of it.
Bitcoin Forks: New forks every month, that naturally entitles bitcoin hodlers with an amount of coins equal to their current holdings, some of this coins will get nowhere, but some might go to 300 USD quickly, more free money just for being a bitcoiner.
Bitcoin Adress Renting: People might rent their bitcoin adress through smart contracts with insane markups so that people who doesn't own bitcoin be able to get services, promotions or even (perhaps) mortgages, and with the deal being (somehow) always in favor of the bitcoin hodler.
Bitcoin Credit Score: Decentralized and global credit scoring is something certain projects are already working on, and it just makes sense that bitcoin hodlers will get an instant boost, entitling you to get better loans and more finantial privileges in general and globally, since you are the hodler of the coin that will be used to collateralize a ton of stuff that is currently tied to the dollar.
Bitcoin Mortgages: "Do you own bitcoin sir?" If so you will get better rates on your mortgage, with less money for downpayment, all collaterized with bitcoin.
And these are just things I can imagine/come up with on the top of my head.
So yep, don't sell your bitcoin, unless you want to loss all the action only reserved to the ones who hodl bitcoin permanently, those who will partake of the material fruits of bitcoin as the global reserve currency.
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