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Zoom Out, Wait and Make the Right Moves

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Written by   123
4 months ago

Back from early summer vacations, and the market keeps moving as expected. I needed time to relax and regroup and think about future investmetns.

The flow of money is in reverse and more is being taken out of cryptos and into fiat bank accounts. Next stop for BTC is 25k that will not hold either and the final bottom is still unknown. Maybe 15k maybe 10k or even lower than that.

I hate to say that I told you so, but I have trading experience that allow me to understand when prices are overheating and when the time to exit is close. Throughout my posts here, I was always explaining the correct course of action.

I don't hide anything and never said that this is not financial advice. This is for those that just want to avoid any kind of critisism for the finanicla advice they are giving.

Altcoin Season

Where are all those guys now, that told you to buy at 50k and 60k? They are still there and still don't have any sense of responsibility.

Buy the dip they told you, even when everything was looking about to end. This was it, everyone that was there to be trapped into Bitcoin is now trapped. They bought after the Tesla announcement at prices above $40k.

Some bought a few altcoins too, perhaps ADA, XRP, LTC, Tron and ignited the altcoin bull market, which also now looks about to end, since most altcoins are already between 50-80% from the all time high.

This Week, CoinGecko

Every week is like that. A freefall in the abyss, as stablecoins are tryign to increase influence and support this market. It just needs one more final hit before the next 20-30% crash that will seal the grave of this bull run and finally those that still claim their charts are the holy grail, will delete their Twitter accounts.

Bitcoin Cash Still Too Far from taking the Helm

We are being played today. Whales are still telling us they accumulate and hold but nothing like that seems to be true.

China has started a partial crack down on mining and this could mean the end of all BTC cycles.

One reason that Bitcoin should have developed instead of stagnating is this. It wouldn't be able to last. Bitcoin was the huge name, the beginning and it is also the end.

It is saddening to see Bitcoin Cash not been accepted by the Crypto community. Everyone is in this market just to increase the value of the investment. Remember this and move forward accordingly.

Bitcoin Cash developed Bitcoin and made it accessible, while Bitcoin Core moved into making a version of Bitcoin that will require more layers and has some unreasonable fees. In the future transacting on chain with BTC will probably be impossible for most of its users if Bitcoin keeps rising and finding new investors.

If one day the sentiment changes towards crypto then Bitcoin Cash could succeed. For the time being it is still weak and competing for 10th place in the market cap.

I will still try to buy some BCH cheap when everything clears out, although, this will probably be one year later, when the dust has settled.

Waiting for the collapse

My plan is to wait. Patience is rewarded, always. Anyone telling you to buy the dips in a bear market probably hasn't thought this through.

I think we are just days before the next major collapse that will send Bitcoin below $30k support and officially end with all those that are still bullish.

The foundations are crumbling, and it will only need one more event. The market manipulators have stopped those bots pumping and are waiting. Tether has also stopped the printers and will have to cut down on USDT supply during the following months.

As I said above, I am expecting everything to crash and the market to reach a total marketcap of about 400-500 Billion before I consider buying again. Then I will have to start research again and find those projects that will be there for the following run up.

Target Prices

It is still too soon to tell. It will require constant observation and very low prices. I have often short positions open that did great all this time I am giving warnings. I don't prefer this trading models though. Shorting is a method to protect your investment if something goes bad. It is insurance.

I don't like using shorting for speculation, I prefer holding an investment and shorting for insurance. This was the real reason behind the creation of futures markets.

My targets to buy again are not visible at the moment. Also, I am considering not buying BTC ever again, I just don't think it has anything left to provide.

El Salvador adopts Bitcoin? This was the worse bullish news I've ever heard. It wasn't going to change anything especially with the model this country mandated.

I have some targets I am willing to share below, and it could take more than a year to reach there. I am giving financial advice with my posts, but please consider these prices to be very rough estimates. The deviation from my patterns and analysis could be very high.

Buying zones:

  • BTC: $14,000 - $10,000

  • XRP: $0,15 - $0,05

  • ETH: $800 - $400

  • ADA: $0,30 - $0? (I can't find a bottom for ADA)

  • DOGE: Below 20 satoshi in the Doge/BTC pair (20-10 sat)

Some crypto like EOS have already lost 75% of their recent top. I don't need to look into those that have very weak fundamentals, low userbase, and even lower count on developments.

I don't know a lot about Cardano, but from what it seems it has produced nothing at all so far. I am expecting it to keep producing nothing at all for the next 8 years and still be relevant in this market.

Doge will get more pump and dumps since this is what it does. Buy it low, hodl and wait for some kind of new craze to appear. Right now it is looking to go back to where it was. It will lose another 95%.

Bitcoin Cash is different and I have grown emotions because the people behind, the devs and the community are trying to promote it honestly.

I hope that Bitcoin Cash price bottoms where it is today, but I can't give a financial advice to buy now. It is all looking to be too weak and BCH is also following the trend of everything else.

Buying low and selling high is how we game markets. It is very easy to say and everybody thinks they can achieve this.

You don't know how much patience I've exhausted in the previous bear market, and how much often I thought I had to sell everything at a loss and exit trading crypto.

I bought very low and it went lower. For months I was in pain, yet those of us that kept trying we were rewarded.

Those of you that manage to understand where to enter and risk accordingly, will also get rewarded for their efforts.

Thank you for your time reading this article. I will be again on vacations in two weeks and will have some gaps between my posts. Have to enjoy those crypto profits.

The cover image is from Unsplash.

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Written by   123
4 months ago
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