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@Z1

Joined 28 January 2020 · 421 posts

Not enough room here to explain

120 KT

0 KT · $1.65 received · 0 KT · $2.20 given

Posts

@Z1

This is the payback for getting up early to start the day. Installing updates because keyboard shortcuts are missing on some of my programs.

@Z1

Been out for a few days - a friend of mine has had very problematic mental health issues mixed with alcohol abuse. When it comes to your family and your close buddies everything else can wait.

@Z1

Just removed my work email from my personal phone. Why I didn't do it before I don't know. Kept Calendars and contacts. #mytime

@Z1

Hashtags are here! #icantbelieveit

@Z1

Now sitting at the breakfast table scrolling through posts. Am I reading this right - hashtags are now included on noise.cash? Or do I need another espresso?

@Z1

Just hit 405 subscribers - to my greatest fans your probably thinking - I can’t believe Z1 isn’t at 3000 - don’t worry I share your frustration - but rejoice in being part of a very special small circle of friends. Hugs hearts and tips to all of you!

@Z1

I'm not that into Elliot Wave myself - but if you are - Lara Iriarte is one of the best. Also for those of you into technical analysis, it's very difficult to find any decent in-depth work on Bitcoin Cash. Lara's analysis of Bitcoin Cash starts at 09:25 of the video. https://youtu.be/EwSAxmQUa-Q #BitcoinCash

@Z1

Bullshit survey time: Do you prefer music on in the mornings or silence. A. Yes I like to boogie on down with the first caffeine hit of the day. B. No any additional sound scape turns me into an irritated monster.

@Z1

Tools of the day 1970’s Iittala Paula coffee cup brass handle Espresso, one spoon muscovado sugar Pink highlighter pen Black pilot roller ball pen Bring it on

@Z1

Currently suffering from procrastinationitis - cure print stuff out to read - put the computer in the other room.

@Z1

Bitcoin Cash Greyscale Trust BCHG Accumulation and Distribution One of the most important factors in the Bitcoin Cash community is the focus on utility over price. It is refreshing in the crypto community and one of the things that makes Bitcoin Cash different from many projects which tend to focus on discussions on vertical price action by moonboyz. While I celebrate the technical innovation taking place within the Bitcoin Cash development communities including the recent deployment of BCH Smart Contracts, I am also keen on straightforward technical analysis in order to assess who is entering and exiting the market. Put simply price does have an impact on network performance. Like many in the Bitcoin Cash community, I was surprised by the extreme volatility following the climb to $1,600 after what looked like a multi-year accumulation period. Although this is my first article on read.cash records of my technical analysis can be found on the sister site noise.cash - https://noise.cash/u/ZEEONE. I use a combination median-line analysis and Wyckoff analysis in order to determine potential movements in the market. With this in mind, this article is written for those of you familiar with the basic principles of Wyckoff analysis. For those of you who are unsure of what this means you can check out this link which includes basic descriptions and abbreviations for the forthcoming charts. https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method The recent lows in the Bitcoin Cash Gresyscale (BCHG) chart drew many peoples attention suggesting a massive markdown period following what I had previously proposed was an accumulation range in April 2021. My initial thesis was incorrect and the accumulation range was instead a large distribution range. BCHG - 1 DAY - Proposed Accumulation - see zeeone noise.cash April 14th 2021. BCHG - 1 DAY - Distribution - August 02 2021 https://www.tradingview.com/x/4iSxiUwE/ My bias to accumulation of BCHG was based on an overall analysis of BCHUSD which I had developed setting targets of $1589-$1989. I was therefore extremely surprised to see BCHUSD hit $1635 and remain at that level for only seven days before starting a large markdown to $466. I believe this volatility also surprised Marc De Messel who commented on the price action in one of his recent live streams from a playground! Nothing like multi-tasking investors! BCHUSD - Wyckoff Point and Figure Accumilaiton targets posted April 14th 2021. A key part of technical analysis is backtesting and the issue of volatility has bugged me for a few months and has forced me to develop a new thesis on why we are seeing this type of movement in the market. The most important thing brought to my attention recently by Pantera in a combination of his articles on the Bitcoin Cash Greyscale Trust and in comments during a conversation on noise.cash is the twelve-month lock-in period for Greyscale Trust Shares. https://read.cash/@Pantera https://read.cash/@Pantera/performance-of-grayscale-cryptocurrency-trusts-gbtc-ethe-bchg-fa573918 "The OTC (over-the-counter) market this guy refers to is the exchange OTCQX. This is the secondary market BCHG shares are traded. After 12 months lockup period for BCHG investors can sell their shares there (and only there). This is the only market that Grayscale trusts are traded. The trust shares are also not reedemable, the investors can't redeem them for crypto through grayscale. The volumes were not very high in the OTC and it seems that someone tried to arbitrage the premium, (which was extremely high and even reached 2000% in November). But the premium to NAV is now a (slight) discount on that exchange (OTCQX). So this arbitrage trade only managed the profit from the rise in price in the last 12 months (probably doubled). " Pantera - https://noise.cash/post/1q75jjm8 Volatility Thesis It would take a massive amount of volume to depress the price from $1635-$466. Retail investors simply would not hold enough Bitcoin Cash to dump into the market at that speed. Therefore it must be composite players (market makers) who are involved. In the chart below the overall scheme still fits a Wyckoff accumulation schematic with invalidation confirmed if the price goes and stays below $408. BCHUSD-Bitstamp 1DAY https://www.tradingview.com/x/tDrTbPsL/ The volatility thesis is as follows: The Greyscale Trust purchases Bitcoin Cash to support Greyscale Trust shares Composite Operators take out Greyscale Trust Shares and hold for a year Composite Operators move price up in the exchange markets Composite Operators sell Greyscale Trust Shares Bitcoin Cash is released and sold into the market by a combination of Greyscale and Composite Operators Key here is the 12month lock-in period. Based on this time period we can backtest the correlation between BCHUSD and BCHG. BCHUSD and BCHG Correlated Chart - https://www.tradingview.com/x/8h74Xh1Z/ As the chart shows the yearly BCHG lock-in coincides with major market events as mapped out through the Wyckoff method (yellow and orange measurement bands show correlation). Initial buying of BCHG occurred following a secondary test (ST-PhaseB) of the BCHUSD lows in January - March 2019 which was sold into the halving and Covid Risk-off event Jan-March 2020 (Wyckoff Spring). Internal Accumulation periods of approximately 54-60 days (two months) followed by major selling into the highs March-May 2019. Combined we can see the work of composite operators at play. Purchase BCHG shares at key market moments - mark up the price in the exchange markets (very low volume - compared to established trading markets) to raise the performance level of BCHG either to coincide with major events (halving) or with control over a year then sell. Back to the Future If the current markdown to $466 was part of a backing up reaction retesting the accumulation range of $75-$510 the next major highs in BCH may occur Aug-Oct 2022. Wyckoff Point and figure would put a target of $2575-$2895. I suspect that BCHG participants may have also made entries in Feb-April 2021 at the 510 key support levels. Therefore we may see markup in price in two phases with selling April-June (reaccumulation) into final selling Aug-October 2022. BCHUSD and BCHG Correlated Chart -Projected https://www.tradingview.com/x/isgaylpK/ BCHUSD - Wyckoff Point and Figure Accumilaiton targets posted August 02 2021. On a knife's edge. The above backtesting is fairly straightforward and shows a correlation between accumulation and distribution schematics of two different assets BCHG and BCHUSD. The main problem and why I have often used on a knifes edge in my noise.cash account is that price has to prove itself and the market has not yet shown a clear direction. Meaning that if the $408 dollar level is broken and traded under it would signify a major change in the thesis that this is BCHUSD is still in a large Accumiltion structure and very possibly a return to long-term range-bound price action.

+5 more

@Z1

Just dropped the kids off at school after a great but intense summer! Currently dancing in the kitchen with my missus to African beats. I now have approximately 5.75 hours of freedom until the madness starts again.

@Z1

House renovation coming along nicely - waiting for three days of good weather to get the next roof lights in. Will do them all in one go - as I now know what needs to be done. Blew out the electrics cutting the ceiling out of the bedroom but then replaced the cables and the fuse at the mains at the bottom of the street. All good now.

@Z1

Can’t believe it’s four years since Bitcoin transformed into Bitcoin Cash. In four years time I want to be able to do the following with Bitcoin Cash a. Buy materials/machines at my local hardware store for sculptures and architecture projects b. Buy a second hand electric pick up truck or estate car. c. Not calculate/pay taxes for every transaction (Sweden) d. Offer clients/institutions the ability to pay in Bitcoin Cash without a major conversation

@Z1

Do channel posts get higher tips?

@Z1

Managed to crack five eggs into the frying pan without breaking the yokes. Some of you might think this is not hard. If that’s you congratulations you’re a legend. For me it’s a major achievement - current success rate 2/10. Next step is to not burn the toast - this is automated so higher success rate.

@Z1

Finally found a thread that makes sense of the huge BCHG selling over the last few weeks. Not sure what the over the counter (OTC) volume is and I presume it would be very hard to check. But by all accounts the BCHG shares were locked in for a year hit a high and then early entrants sold on mass. The chart looks like a massive distribution range and mark down if I held shares now you wouldn’t be able to tear them away from my dead body. https://mobile.twitter.com/Patsminus7/status/1420865180859346944 #BitcoinCash

@Z1

Noticed less and less people posting charts and price discussions which is interesting in itself. Haven't looked at the BCHUSD charts that much lately as I've been busy. Plus - nothing has happened to get me to start looking again - it's still in the redistribution zone set out by the BSV fork. Except this - Bitcoin Cash Grayscale Trust. Haven't seen any divergence with the BCHUSD price this extreme in its history. Volume suggests capitulation - there may be a bit lower to go to really put the fear in but something strange is in the air. https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/b4FAkYFJ.png #BitcoinCash

@Z1

Have made an executive decision not to open up my emails until 15.30. The world can wait.

@Z1

When my parents died we scanned in all the family photo albums - it’s always great to look back at yourself as a kid. Even better is making new memories of your kids enjoying the good life. He’ll never remember the moment but here’s my three year old making his way across the stone boulders in the archipelago in Stockholm.

@Z1

After an amazing weekend out on the water currently finding it tough to get going again. Post chill out blues big time.

@Z1

Stockholm Archipelago evening - just got out of the water - cheesy nachos sunset - but sometimes you have to embrace the generic.

@Z1

I could start complaining. But life is too good. Before you ask no it’s not my boat but it’s good to have neighbours nice enough to invite you out for the weekend.

@Z1

Chilling out in the back garden - amazing evening breeze cooling me down after a crazy session yesterday. Managed to get the first roof light in now I’m totally knackered. Hope everyone is having a relaxing Friday.

@Z1

Got the ceiling down - Trying to get a parallel rectangle measured in a structure that’s not square is a total head f*ck. have a laser level but ended up going old school swinging circle to get the centre. Chance it’s square and level - 70/30. First roof light going in tomorrow. Wish me luck.

@Z1

Not too worried about the charts as I woke up this morning and found a snake in my bed - and not the happy morning type of snake I’m used to.

@Z1

An underpass in Stockholm following a downpour. This space no longer exists, it’s now just a memory, absorbed by the ever changing city.

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