History Repeats Until It Doesn't
It seems that despite major shifts within the Crypto market over the past year and a half, Bitcoin is still following the projected path. A path projected by past performance and other indicators such as Plan B's S2F model. I had previously stated in an article written just prior to the onset of the current bull market that cycles could be forever changed.
However, despite all the unparalleled institutional investment and stimulus, the current cycle is almost virtually identical to that of 2013. I guess we are currently still repeating the cycles of the past and this will continue until quite simply, it doesn't. The graph below was posted on Raoul Pal's Twitter account and reveals how frighteningly similar the two cycles are.
The current bull run is still busy playing out and measures up almost perfectly against 2013, at least for now anyway. I have seen some guys on Crypto Twitter suggest that if BTC does not close above Plan B's 63K predicted close for October, the model will be invalidated. Personally, I don't think that is realistic or how models actually work.
Looking Back On Accuracy
Studying the S2F reveals that at numerous times in history, the price action has deviated quite significantly from the mean of the model. Expecting price to run perfectly in unison with models is simply unrealistic. Furthermore, do you really think that every predicted monthly close over the past couple of years has been met by the price action of that particular time period?
I have not personally verified this but I quite simply find it highly unlikely. Price action overshoots and underperforms models but over time keeps the basic trend and price zone. There can be months when the price looks like it is busy invalidating the model when all of a sudden a surge hits and now the price is actually above that of the modeled price.
Could This Be The Target
When you look at the average of the projected price of keeping with 2013 and the projected price of the S2F model you get an approximate price of $269K. This however does not take into consideration the blow-off top, which can see that number move significantly higher.
Would it be fair to consider this price zone a relatively safe zone to begin exiting? It is really tough to say. I do personally believe that we will at least hit $200K this cycle but it is all speculation and predictive. There are no certainties, so the best is to stay as close to the market as possible in the coming months.
My latest post, "The Correct Psychology Of Bitcoin As Money" addresses some important aspects of Bitcoin and the opportunity it offers. Provided the dynamics remain somewhat unchanged, this approach is highly beneficial to hodlers. Considering that the halving creates a dynamic that is unseen in any other asset, it will inevitably cause price appreciation by design, going forward. Yes, how much will most likely change in time but it should still be rather aggressive.
Disclaimer
First of all, I am not a financial advisor. All information provided on this website is strictly my own opinion and not financial advice. I do make use of affiliate links. Purchasing or interacting with any third-party company could result in me receiving a commission. In some instances, utilizing an affiliate link can also result in a bonus or discount.
