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During any bearish or brutal season, one will always see and experience a shift to quality. Traditionally, when the market drops, there is a move to Bitcoin, stablecoins, and cash. This ultimately causes Bitcoin dominance to rise. Despite the great bounce today, it is simply one day and does not change what has taken place over the last number of days. As mentioned in my previous post, the breakdown to $25K has opened the door to further downside. I would be thinking more bullish had we remained in the sideways “box”. A few months ago I predicted that we would experience strong moves in May. I revisited this prediction about a month ago in a post published on the 12th of April when the market was looking a lot healthier. Note that at the time I was leaning more towards the bullish side but made it clear that if the mood of the market were to change we should expect the strong moves to be to the downside.
That being said, an extension to the downside should also be factored into an extension of the previous range. My expectation has been and continues to be in May, as outlined a few months ago. My expectation is a strong break to the upside towards the end of May. However, that could also be to the downside depending on what transpires closer to the time. At this stage, I am still expectant of a strong move north sometime in May.
I think we can all agree that the Crypto market has suffered a blow and that significant knocks require time to recover. A good bounce is a healthy reaction and does not necessarily imply that the market will continue edging higher. This can be likened to a person in an accident. The person maintains composure and makes decisive decisions, only to later lose composure once reality kicks in and the adrenaline has worn off.
I Don’t Believe The Bottom Is In
It definitely does appear as if we are to go lower, it might only be in the coming days or weeks but I don’t think it can be avoided at this stage. I would really love to be wrong in this instance but it does appear to be rather unlikely. I address this scenario in more detail in my recent article, “My Strategic Approach To The Current Crypto Market”. Once we experience another correction, I believe the market will reconsider. At this point, I would expect to see a “shift to quality”, as investors will now be extremely cautious. The recent events surrounding LUNA are causing investors to reconsider their own personal risk profiles.
If the market is thrown into a violent downturn unexpectedly shortly after losing two Top 10 projects it will initiate a shift to what is perceived as strong and of real value. At this point, speculation would take a back seat. This is why my passive income models that were being utilized to buy alts will now shift to funding trading accounts. I believe that I will be able to secure excellent entry points by utilizing this approach.
It Works Both Ways
Just as an event like the one we have just experienced can strike from nowhere, so can a bullish event. Always remember that news or announcements trump technicals and even fundamentals, at least in the short term. A bullish pattern can be invalidated by a bearish event or announcement and vice versa. This is why the committed are often the ones to succeed. They are watching, taking note, and are able to react timeously.
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