Bitcoin Price Speculation - Is It Even Worth It?
I originally wanted to title this post "Bitcoin Price Forecast" but felt that the word "forecast" is too precise; it implies studying applicable data and making what is essentially an educated guess. The problem is that people can all look at the same data and come up with different conclusions. So, I prefer the word "speculate" because I feel it is just more fitting. Semantics, for sure, but let me explain.
Here you can see two separate news stories from FX Street, both posted within 12 hours of each other. One postulates Bitcoin dropping to $14k and the other a rise to $17k. Same source, two opposing views. Now obviously these are from different authors, but my point is that it's quite difficult to get a good reading on where the price of Bitcoin will go.
Monthly Chart Appears Neutral to Me
Over the past 30 days, the price of Bitcoin is essentially back where it started on November 19, 2022. The price sits around $16,500 at the time of this writing. Volume is relatively low, which is not unusual as 2022 draws to a close.
Support at $15,500 Remains
Having a look at this three month chart, you can see that the support level is pretty clearly defined at approximately the $15,500 level. That is, of course, only short-term support. If you zoom out and look at the all-time chart, $10k will be the next level to watch if $15.5k breaks.
If $10k does not hold up, the next level to watch will be $3,200 which goes back to 2019. Am I saying that Bitcoin will crash to $3,200? Certainly not. In reality, I do not know. It's certainly not completely out of the cards, but it would be a shock to me personally. My "technical analysis" is by no means that of an expert; I am definitely an amateur chart-watcher.
Notable Speculations
I thought it might be interesting to take a look at what some others have said, and where their calls stand now. Here's a short list of some of those calls:
Tyler Winklevoss: $500k
Anthony Pompliano: $100-250k
Shervin Pishevar: $100k
Jeremy Liew: $500k
And some of the more ultra, ultra bull predictions:
Chamath Palihapitiya: $1,000,000 by 2037
Wences Casares: $1,000,000 by 2027
Cathie Wood: $1,000,000 by 2030
Finally, a brief (incomplete) list of people who believe Bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies to be worthless:
Peter Schiff
Warren Buffett
Jamie Dimon
Charlie Munger
My Price Prediction For 2023
It wouldn't be an article about speculation without a price prediction, right? My amateur opinion for the price of Bitcoin throughout 2023 is as follows - BTC will test the 10k support level briefly in the first half of the year before ping-ponging between the 14-18k region for most of the year. It will finally head above 20k at the end of the year, setting up a new bull run for 2024.
I can't wait to revisit this post this post in a year's time to see how wrong I was. Gotta start somewhere, right?
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