@Pantera 6 December 2025 edited more from that month

Perfectly Predicted $100k BTC... AND the Bear Market That Followed! Two years ago, I perfectly predicted both $100K BTC, AND how the price around this level would be the top, using simple math: - The 4th Bitcoin Halving And The Case Of $100,000 BTC (April, 2023) The price was around $30k if I remember correctly, and market sentiment was still negative as everyone was dealing with the fallout from the FTX collapse. https://medium.com/the-crypto-kiosk/the-4th-bitcoin-halving-and-the-case-of-100-000-364678b52103 So in this story, I predicted both the bull and the bear phases, though the bear arrived about six months later than I expected. Exact timing is always difficult, since unforeseen events can shift market cycles. The pattern itself was easy to locate and logical, and the calculations were simple. The fact that events have unfolded more or less according to that pattern until now supports the argument. The only scenario that would invalidate it is if the price moves to a new all-time high, which is not unreasonable either, since BTC has not dropped lower than $75k in 2025, and still stands around $90k. The Halving Effect I calculated that each halving has ~82% less impact on price than the previous one. Based on this diminishing effect, a move to around $100k was essentially guaranteed, but anything significantly above that was unlikely. Later and well before the ATH, I revised my estimate to $120k, which I mentioned repeatedly in various posts on Medium and read.cash. I also made it clear that I couldn’t see Bitcoin exceeding $120k. With a 20% margin of error, that estimate was actually quite reasonable for crypto predictions, certainly more grounded than the overly-optimistic targets coming from various funds, banks and institutions. Right now, nearly 20 million BTC are already in circulation, with only about 1 million left to be mined until around 2140. Even with the 80% reduction in halving impact, the next halving won’t be meaningless, but depending on where BTC stabilizes (perhaps at $30k or even lower, *if the bear market scenario continues to plays out*), it’s entirely possible that we may never see a new BTC ATH again. The story I linked has 2,000 reads, and people still thank me for the explanation of the pattern backing the $100k price. And yet, I always point out that, according to different models, those based on P2P commercial adoption and Satoshi’s original economic framework, Bitcoin should be around $1 million by now. But the timeline that prevailed placed BTC roughly 90% below that theoretical valuation, and BTC maxis are contempt with that. Conclusion Sure, some predictions may seem unlikely, but when clear red flags appear, they’re hard to ignore. Tether, for instance is filled with red flags, but over time I realized it is allowed it to survive only for as long as it remains useful to the current system. https://medium.com/the-crypto-kiosk/why-tether-usdt-hasnt-collapsed-yet-and-when-it-will-e2a36ae7b8ed After that, its fate becomes far less certain. I’m simply glad to help others and show them what reason and logic actually sound like. I advocate for a disciplined investing approach rather than throwing money at whatever hype-driven nonsense appears. I’ve explained many times why projects like Bitcoin Cash and Monero deserve far more recognition in the crypto landscape, especially when compared to random, centralized, VC-backed vaporware that was once marketed as “the next big thing.” And where are those projects now? BCH and Monero constantly targeting the top-10 while the hyped up marketing schemes about to disappear. Predictions are just one part of the picture. Beyond that, there’s ethos. The commitment to stand by at least some shared values in the community and not sell out to the highest bidder. *My links:* ***https://linktr.ee/panterabch*** *BCH Donations here:* *tipb.ch/pantera* https://tipb.ch/Pantera