Price Analysis 1/18: BTC, ETH, DOT, XRP, ADA, LTC, BCH, LINK, XLM, BNB

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3 years ago

Altcoins are starting to lose their bullish momentum as the price of Bitcoin struggles to return to $ 40,000.

Investors are beginning to worry that the uptrend for Bitcoin ( BTC ) may be in jeopardy after the largest cryptocurrency on the market failed to break above $ 40,000. Some traders fear that a repeat of the crushing bear market of 2018 is in play again if BTC fails to regain its bullish momentum.

However, a study of both bull markets shows clear differences that are noteworthy. Research from Pantera Capital found that after the current bullish move, 86% of the cryptocurrency market value is concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, largely because institutional funds have flowed primarily into both cryptocurrencies.

In 2017, the top two coins only controlled about 52% of the value, with the rest being in various altcoins that turned out to be "non-functional" coins. In today's bull market, retail investors appear to be largely absent, so the kind of speculation witnessed in 2017 is still conspicuous by its absence in 2021.

Daily performance of the cryptocurrency market. Source: Coin360

Guggenheim Partners chief investment officer Scott Minerd recently said his long-term price target of $ 400,000 for Bitcoin still stands and his recent tweet asking his followers to "get some money off the table" was based on the short-term price movement.

Although Minerd has not included Bitcoin in its mutual fund portfolios, it said that purchases have been made in some private funds managed by Guggenheim.

While Bitcoin is consolidating after the recent bullish phase, some altcoins are extending their upward movement. Can this continue? Let's take a look at the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC / USD

Bitcoin is attempting to rally from the 20-day exponential moving average ($ 34,380), but the weak bounce suggests a lack of urgency among the bulls to rack up on the dips. Since the price is trapped within a symmetrical triangle, technical traders can wait for the price to break out of the pattern before starting to buy.

Daily chart of the BTC / USDT pair. Source: TradingView

If the price does not rise to the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle, the bears can smell an opportunity and will try to drag the price below the triangle. If they get their way, the BTC / USD pair can drop to the 38.2% Fib retracement level at $ 29,688.10.

This is an important level to watch out for because if the bears sink the price below this support, the decline could extend to the 50-day SMA ($ 26,932). The deeper the dip, the longer it will take for the uptrend to resume, because each rise will be met with a selloff from traders who were caught at the higher levels.

Another sharp correction could be avoided if the bulls push the price above the triangle. The all-time high of $ 41,959.63 can act as a stiff resistance, but if the bulls can push the price above it, the pair could hit $ 50,000.

ETH / USD

Ether ( ETH ) remains in a strong uptrend and is currently consolidating near the overhead resistance between $ 1,300 and $ 1,349.10. The moving averages rising and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest the path of least resistance to the upside.

ETH / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH / USD pair formed a Japanese candlestick pattern on January 17 and again earlier today, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears. If the uncertainty is resolved to the upside and the bulls carry the price above the overhead resistance, the uptrend could resume. The next target is $ 1,420 and the next is $ 1,675.

Conversely, if the price turns down from current levels and falls below $ 1,152, the pair could fall to the 20-day EMA ($ 1,079). A strong bounce above this support will suggest accumulation at the lower levels and the bulls will once again attempt to resume the uptrend.

However, if the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA, the slide could deepen to $ 1,000 and then $ 900.

DOT/USD

Polkadot ( DOT ) is in a strong uptrend and momentum picked up after the altcoin broke through resistance at $ 10.68 on January 13. The upward move reached $ 19.40 on January 16, posting a 143% rally in four days.

Daily chart of the DOT / USDT pair. Source: TradingView

Some short-term traders may have withdrawn their profits after the strong rally, but the superficial correction suggests that most traders are not panicking. If the bears fail to drag the price below the 38.2% Fib retracement level at $ 14.7259, the uptrend could resume.

If the bulls can push the price above $ 20, the DOT / USD pair could rally to $ 24 and then $ 30. However, if the bears sink the price below $ 14.7259, the pair may consolidate gains. recent for a few days before starting your next trend move. The bears will signal a comeback if they can sustain the price below the 20-day EMA ($ 11.47).

XRP / USD

The bears have been defending the 20-day EMA ($ 0.297) for the past few days, but have been unable to capitalize on the weakness and sink  XRP below $ 0.25, suggesting a lack of sellers at the lower levels.

XRP / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will now try to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they are successful, the XRP / USD pair can rally to $ 0.385. The bears are likely to defend this resistance aggressively.

If the price changes direction from this resistance, the pair could extend its stay in the range for a few more days. On the other hand, if the bulls manage to push the price above the range and the 50-day SMA ($ 0.406), a new uptrend could begin.

ADA / USD

Cardano ( ADA ) spiked above the downtrend line on January 16, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. The bulls pushed the price close to the overhead resistance at $ 0.40 on Jan.17, which may act as a stiff obstacle.

Daily chart of the ADA / USDT pair. Source: TradingView

However, the rising moving averages and the RSI in the overbought zone suggest that the bulls are in control. If the bulls do not allow the price to fall and sustain below $ 0.34, the probability of a breakout above $ 0.40 increases. The next target on the upside is at $ 0.50.

Contrary to this assumption, if the bears sink the price below $ 0.34, it will suggest an aggressive profit booking at the higher levels. The ADA / USD pair could fall to the 20-day EMA ($ 0.288).

A strong bounce above the 20-day EMA could keep the uptrend intact, but a break below it could mark a short-term top.

LTC/USD

The bulls and bears have been fighting near the 20-day EMA ($ 144) for the past few days. Buyers are currently trying to push Litecoin ( LTC ) above the 61.8% Fib retracement level at $ 157.6904.

Daily chart of the LTC / USDT pair. Source: TradingView

If they get their way, the LTC / USD pair could rally to $ 170 and subsequently $ 185.5821. A breakout of this resistance could open the doors for a rally to $ 225.

However, the bears are unlikely to give up without a fight. They will pose a challenge at USD 157.6904. If the price turns down from this resistance, the pair can remain within the limed range of $ 130-160 for a couple more days.

The trend will tilt in favor of the bears if they can sink and hold the price below the 50-day SMA ($ 118).

BCH/USD

The bears are defending the resistance at $ 515.35 but have not been able to sink Bitcoin Cash ( BCH ) below the rising trend line. This shows that the bulls are buying during the dips.

Daily chart of the BCH / USD pair. Source: TradingView

If the bulls can push and hold the price above the resistance zone of $ 515.35 to $ 539, the BCH / USD pair could hit 631.71. The bears can defend this level aggressively, but if the bulls can push the price above it, the uptrend could reach $ 833.

The ascending moving averages and the RSI in positive territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

Contrary to this idea, if the price turns down from the upper resistance and breaks below the rising trend line, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned negative and traders are closing their positions on the rally. This could result in a drop to $ 370.

LINK/USD

Chainlink ( LINK ) is on a strong uptrend, hitting a new all-time high of $ 23,767 on January 17. The rising 20-day EMA ($ 16.91) and the RSI near the overbought territory suggest that the bulls are in control.

LINK / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, bears are not willing to give up easily. They had tried to stop the rally on Jan 16 as seen from the long wick on the daily candle and are again trying to sink the price today. The bears will have to sink and hold the price below $ 20.1111 to gain the upper hand.

But if the LINK / USD pair bounces off $ 20.1111, it will suggest that the level has been converted to support and may act as a bottom during future declines. If the bulls can push the price above $ 23,767, the uptrend could take the price to $ 27 and then $ 30.

XLM/USD

Stellar Lumens ( XLM ) has been trading within the range of $ 0.26 to $ 0.325 for the past few days, but the 20-day EMA ($ 0.257) rising and the RSI in positive territory suggest that the bulls are in the lead.

Daily chart of the XLM / USDT pair. Source: TradingView

If buyers can push the price above $ 0.325, the XLM / USD pair can rally to $ 0.409 and if this level is also passed, the up move can reach $ 0.50. The longer you stay in the range, the stronger the breakout.

Contrary to this idea, if the bears sink the price below the range and the 20-day EMA, it could attract the profit reserve from traders and the pair could fall to the 50-day SMA. Such a move will tip the lead in favor of the bears.

BNB/USD

Binance Coin ( BNB ) hit a new all-time high on January 17 and followed with another new high today at $ 46.8888. However, the bulls are struggling to hold the higher levels, which suggests that some traders are taking profits.

BNB / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The BNB / USD pair has formed an ascending widening wedge pattern and the RSI is also showing signs of a bearish divergence. Both indicators suggest that the bullish momentum may be weakening.

However, in a strong uptrend, bearish events are reversed when the bulls resume their buying after a pause. Traders can watch for price action near the 20-day EMA ($ 40) because if this support breaks, the bears will try to sink the price below the wedge.

But if the BNB / USD pair bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that traders keep buying on the dips. Such a move could resume the uptrend with the next target at $ 50.

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