Bitcoin Options With BTC around the $64K level, the options market is pricing in a 44% chance of $70K and 31% of $58K by the end of May. Last week, the same percentage away-from-the-money strikes were implying a probability of 37% ($62K) and 28% ($52K) by end of April with BTC spot at ~$57K. Since breaking $60K, realized volatility has increased but remains clearly below implied volatility. After the latest spike, short term implied volatility (April, May) trades at only 5% discount to June and September expiries. Skew of Calls over Puts has reached levels unseen over the last month. $50K puts are sold in size while high OI build-up continues at the very same strike and around $60K and $64K for calls. On extremes, open interest remains high in $40K Puts and $80K Calls. With high call gamma exposure at the $64K strike this remains a key level; as soon as spot trades higher we could see accelerated moves to the upside. After breaking $60K the overall outlook is optimistic with expectations of higher volatility in the short term. #CryptoTrading
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