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Why It Pays to Ignore Bitcoin Price Predictions (Updated)

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Is Bitcoin plunging to $20K or surging to $400K? 

Everyone has an opinion from crypto analysts, influencers, traders, and wall street "experts." Then there's tech billionaires like Musk and Dorsey, establishment figures like JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon and innovative finance leaders like Catherine Wood. None of them knows. 

They all have an interest in pumping or dumping to suit their own purposes. It is useless to try and predict specific prices because the future is inherently uncertain. The past is not a reliable guide when it comes to financial markets.

Just because Bitcoin went up x%, then dipped, then went up another x% doesn't mean it is following a set pattern from years ago. Short term price movements are not predictors of what Bitcoin may do tomorrow, next week, or next year. Why?

Trading is not a science

Despite what the technical analysts say about candlesticks and death crosses and handles and cups, if any of these so called patterns predicted future price movements, then everyone would trade them and the pattern would cease to exist. 

Bitcoin price movements are not formulaic like the movements of the planets around the sun. They cannot be used to calculate the trajectory of a satellite launch or the amount of oxygen generation needed for the International Space Station.

Moving averages are just averages. They look backwards and are not predictive of the future.

Sometimes buying below moving averages yields a return if the price rebounds and continues going up. Sometimes it doesn't. So any "rule" about timing a buy around moving averages isn't really a time-tested strategy as much as a guide to help bring some semblance of order to a relatively disorderly process.

So does anyone know whether Bitcoin will be a valuable asset in the future?

There many unknowns baked into that question. Nation-state regulations could derail broader adoption. Other technological breakthroughs could create better-faster-cheaper-safer networks. A stablecoin failure could send everyone running for the doors (though to be fair USDT and USDC are looking more stable with their stated underlying assets these days.)

What we do know is that mainstream banks are climbing aboard the bitcoin train by offering futures (which may generate interest and possibly secondary demand). A bitcoin exchange traded fund (if approved in any developed market) would be huge for greater adoption (that would generate primary demand for the crypto through direct buying). Mining is leaning green after the China ban (removes a bit of the Bitcoin stigma at the moment). And smaller holders are growing in overall percentage of all bitcoin wallets, which means whale influence over large volume swings may finally be on the wane.

The only other certainty is that there will be plenty of short term volatility (lots of traders run with price appreciation and then take profits, which is not a bad thing because it creates liquidity if new entrants want to buy.) 

Over the longer term no one knows with any degree of certainty where Bitcoin's price is going, but mainstream interest is certainly growing, and that is a good sign for longer term price appreciation. For a specific price target today, tomorrow, or in two years, a coin flip or dice toss is about as good as anyone's guess.

Photo credits: Executium and Maxim Hopman via unsplash.

Update: The original article was rejected by the Bitcoin community for being "out of scope." Agree? Disagree? Also, no links needed for original content.

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Comments

completely agree, and prices of the week i presume is often determined by a few whales, and can't be 'predicted' on any past performance. elon and cathy can predict...when they intentionally intend to move the market...but their 'prediction' will only be after they made their orders...so they can profit

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